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If even the Golden Globes won't nominate it, I'd say the Dark Knight's odds for a Best Pic nom look a whole lot worse today

I'm also peeling the Wall-E '08 bumper sticker off my car as we speak.

domino harvey wrote:If even the Golden Globes won't nominate it, I'd say the Dark Knight's odds for a Best Pic nom look a whole lot worse today

I agree. Bad news for the bat. It's still in the mix though, and I can definitely see Christopher Nolan getting the "lone director" nod even if the film doesn't get nominated for best pic. I think that he is very highly regarded by his peers, and they will be the ones making the nominations.

At this point, I think only Slumdog has a lock on a nomination (though I still can't see it winning). This is the hardest year to predict that I can recall. It's basically that damn near everything sucked this year, and a dozen mediocre films are fighting for five slots. I'll need to revise my predictions, but this is the best I can do for now:

Lock
Slumdog Millionaire

Likely
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Frost/Nixon

Who the fuck knows?
Milk
Doubt
Revolutionary Road
The Reader
The Dark Knight

Extreme Longshots
Wall•E
Happy-Go-Lucky
The Wrestler
Rachel Getting Married
Vicky Cristina Barcelona

domino harvey wrote:If even the Golden Globes won't nominate it, I'd say the Dark Knight's odds for a Best Pic nom look a whole lot worse today

And let's not forget the home viewing factor on this one: compared to the theatrical presentation (especially on IMAX), the film looks far less impressive on even the best HD home entertainment systems. I wouldn't be surprised if the average voter who missed The Dark Knight in theatres is less than impressed if they are seeing the film for the first time on DVD.

Jeff wrote:Extreme Longshots
Happy-Go-Lucky

You know, I could see this getting the Rachel Best Pic spot I was predicting. The Academy loves Leigh and its nomination at the Globes is very surprising. It very well could be a new player.

Tom Hagen wrote:

domino harvey wrote:If even the Golden Globes won't nominate it, I'd say the Dark Knight's odds for a Best Pic nom look a whole lot worse today

And let's not forget the home viewing factor on this one: compared to the theatrical presentation (especially on IMAX), the film looks far less impressive on even the best HD home entertainment systems. I wouldn't be surprised if the average voter who missed The Dark Knight in theatres is less than impressed if they are seeing the film for the first time on DVD.

Uh, what are you basing the above on exactly? The BD reviews have been nothing less than ecstatic.

And Hollywood's gay community is not pleased to find out about Jerry Lewis' forthcoming award.

Yeah, definitely don't honor his work for sick children because he said "fag" a couple times

Oh, what, is David Geffen going to sit on his hands like Ed Harris did when Elia Kazan got his honorary Oscar?

Antoine Doinel wrote:Uh, what are you basing the above on exactly? The BD reviews have been nothing less than ecstatic.

There's nothing wrong with the BD. I am simply saying that a cinematic experience is going to be entirely different for just about any film if you happen to be seeing for the first time on a television screen. A film like TDK -- which relies much more on its overall visceral experience than perhaps other potential nominees -- is going to have to overcome that particular challenge if it's going to be seen as something more than a popcorn movie with the average Academy voter.

Matt wrote:Oh, what, is David Geffen going to sit on his hands like Ed Harris did when Elia Kazan got his honorary Oscar?

What the hell is going on with De Niro's hair in that clip??

Matt wrote:Oh, what, is David Geffen going to sit on his hands like Ed Harris did when Elia Kazan got his honorary Oscar?

Yes, while wearing a cricket uniform, I would imagine.

domino harvey wrote:If even the Golden Globes won't nominate it, I'd say the Dark Knight's odds for a Best Pic nom look a whole lot worse today

swo17 wrote:I'm also peeling the Wall-E '08 bumper sticker off my car as we speak.

I still think they have a shot. The Globes rebounded from their Pia Zadora ridiculousness of the 80's in the 90's but it seems like their influence has lost some steam lately. On an unrelated note given their penchant for giving their best TV actress award to young attractive women in their debut seasons (Claire Danes, Keri Russell, Jennifer Garner) Anna Paquin better have a speech prepared.

The Golden Globes rewards popular choices. If the Popular Choice Factory isn't even honoring these two, well...

I was expecting Redbelt not getting the attention it deserves, but I´m actually rather surprised that there hasn´t been a single award/nomination for Chiwetel Ejiofor. The performance of the year, imo. A CGI Brad Pitt is somehow better than Ejoifor...I´m confused.

I agree, he gave an amazing performance-- even people who hated the film singled him out for praise. But I can't say I'm surprised that no critics have mentioned him

Looks like Huge Ackman may host this year.

Jeff wrote:Looks like Huge Ackman may host this year.

Great. It will be the least funny Oscars since Chris Rock hosted.

Well, at least their gesture to court a larger TV audience, particularly a female one, is completely transparent. I do wish the rumors of Ricky Gervais hosting had come true though.

Jeff wrote:Looks like Huge Ackman may host this year.

"You know what awards show was really good? The Tonys, let's be like them." I guess get ready for one of those awful song and dance numbers Billy Crystal was so good at parodying. If they just let him play it straight and keep the show rolling we might be OK, if they have him injecting typical Bruce Vilanch-like comedy bits then prepare for multiple cringes.

Antoine Doinel wrote:Well, at least their gesture to court a larger TV audience, particularly a female one, is completely transparent. I do wish the rumors of Ricky Gervais hosting had come true though.

I wish it was RG too, I have a feeling they asked him and he turned it down.

It's a good thing I always watch the ceremony on mute

Stephen King’s Top 10 Movies of 2008

1. The Dark Knight - “The best superhero movie ever.”
2. Slumdog Millionaire
3. WALL-E - “It certainly deserves to be nominated.”
4. Tropic Thunder
5. Funny Games - “A savage parody of the snuff-porn”
6. The Bank Job
7. Lakeview Terrace
8. The Ruins
9. Redbelt - “Not your father’s Karate Kid.”
10. Death Race

His excuse: "I only saw 10 films this year."

Anyone else notice that Anthony Lane's list (well, paragraph) of the ten best movies of 2008 included three movies from 2007?

Tom Hagen wrote:

Antoine Doinel wrote:Uh, what are you basing the above on exactly? The BD reviews have been nothing less than ecstatic.

There's nothing wrong with the BD. I am simply saying that a cinematic experience is going to be entirely different for just about any film if you happen to be seeing for the first time on a television screen. A film like TDK -- which relies much more on its overall visceral experience than perhaps other potential nominees -- is going to have to overcome that particular challenge if it's going to be seen as something more than a popcorn movie with the average Academy voter.

I would imagine the average Academy voter has a fairly decent home setup that it won't be an issue. And for completely anecdotal evidence, a friend of mine came over yesterday and we popped the BD of The Dark Knight in to see what it looked like. He hadn't seen the film in theaters and he was absolutely blown away by the opening few moments (both visually - the IMAX stuff looks insane on BD - and narratively). It was pretty late, so we decided to stop by the local pub for a couple of pints before ending the night. At the pub he told me he would've been ready to sit down and watch the whole thing right there, regardless of the hour. He had gotten immediately hooked by the opening minute.

Perkins Cobb wrote:Anyone else notice that Anthony Lane's list (well, paragraph) of the ten best movies of 2008 included three movies from 2007?

Well, considering he hates pretty much everything he sees, I would imagine it would've been hard for him to come up with ten movies from this year alone.

I still think The Dark Knight has a chance. Look at Crash, that wasn't up for but two Golden Globes *for best screenplay and Matt Dillion* and look what it did at the Oscars. What was more a shock was that Milk is only up for best actor. Is The Reader that good that it booted Milk out? And from what I'm hearing from people that have seen it, and this isn't critics, is that Benjamin Button doesn't hold up to the hype. I've heard that it's Forrest Gump by way of Big Fish. Someone said it's a been there done that type of film that you only would want to see once. Slumdog is still the lock and the film that is going to win unless another film picks up steam.