Awards Season 2012

[domino harvey]

Like Tree of Life, those who like it really like it

[Andre Jurieu]

I'm continually amazed that Life of Pi and Ang Lee have been undeterred awards season picks considering that the film hasn't excelled at the box office and the critical reviews have been mostly positive but not raves. It's a respectable film, but where it's receiving this momentum despite a sea of other worthy contenders is a mystery to me. Any insights?

I think it's important to keep in mind that industry voters tend to share some of the same opinions as critics, but they still reflect some tastes that are different. Lee has built a strong-base of support amongst his fellow filmmakers and within the industry over the years and he's generally the type of friendly personality that they seem to favor. As well, the film is rather appealing in terms of delivery and content and the lush 3D visuals are likely impressive to his more technically-inclined colleagues. Otherwise, the source-material is fairly well-known and beloved by many, so the competent adaptation is likely appreciated immediately. It is actually a really fine example of "Oscar-bait", though I don't find it as offensive as some other contenders that could share that term.

Also, if you really want to get in the head of an Academy-member during the awards season blitz, I recommend reading James Toback's comments (which are likely somewhat exaggerated) in this article.

[hearthesilence]

I'm sure some thought Lee's direction deserved recognition for its technical achievement alone. But Hooper? He made a hash of that film. David O. Russell should've gotten it, simply for making a good film out of material that was potentially (and could have very easily been) disastrous.

[domino harvey]

Remember that he did win the DGA already, so they like him... for whatever ungodly reason. But yeah, yikes, sorry Miramax, Silver Linings Playbook may not even be a lock for Best Pic anymore, honestly

Also, nominations are on Thursday, where are our final predix?

[The Narrator Returns]

Here are mine for Best Picture (which will most likely be wrong)

The Master
Life of Pi
Les Miserables, Or Why Did They Use That Camera Angle: The Movie
Zero Dark Thirty
Argo
Amour
Moonrise Kingdom
Lincoln
Django Unchained
Silver Linings Playbook

[domino harvey]

Mine:

BEST PIC
Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Django Unchained
Les Miz
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty

BEST DIRECTOR
Baflleck, Argo
Tom Hooper, Les Miz
Ang Lee, Life of Pi
Stephen Spielberg, Lincoln
Kathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty
(Could see the Directors going crazy and giving PTA a nom over Lee, since the Master is exactly the kind of difficult flick they sometimes throw this nom at)

BEST ACTOR
Jack Black, Bernie
Denzel Washington, Flight
Hugh Jackman, Les Miz
Daniel Day Lewis, Lincoln
Joaquin Phoenix, the Master

BEST ACTRESS
Quvenzhane Wallis, Beasts of Southern Wild
Rachel Weisz, the Deep Blue Sea
Marion Cotillard, Rust and Bone
Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Leonardo DiCaprio, Django Unchained
Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln
Matthew McConaughey, Magic Mike
Phillip Seymour Hoffman, the Master
Javier Bardem, Skyfall

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Maggie Smith, the Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
Ann Dowd, Compliance
Anne Hathaway, Les Miz
Sally Field, Lincoln
Amy Adams, the Master

[The Narrator Returns]

These are probably correct, although I can see Jack Black getting bumped in favor of Bradley Cooper or John Hawkes.

[Jeff]

Surprisingly, mine haven't changed a lot since November.

BEST PICTURE
Argo
Amour
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Les Misérables
Moonrise Kingdom
Silver Linings Playbook
Skyfall
Zero Dark Thirty

BEST DIRECTOR
Ben Affleck - Argo
Katherine Bigelow - Zero Dark Thirty
Tom Hooper - Les Misérables
Ang Lee - Life of Pi
Steven Spielberg - Lincoln

BEST ACTOR
Daniel Day-Lewis - Lincoln
John Hawkes - The Sessions
Hugh Jackman - Les Misérables
Joaquin Phoenix - The Master
Denzel Washington - Flight

BEST ACTRESS
Jessica Chastain - Zero Dark Thirty
Marion Cotillard - Rust and Bone
Jennifer Lawrence - Silver Linings Playbook
Emmanuelle Riva - Amour
Naomi Watts - The Impossible

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Robert De Niro - Silver Linings Playbook
Leonardo DiCaprio - Django Unchained
Phillip Seymour Hoffman - The Master
Tommy Lee Jones - Lincoln
Matthew McConaughey - Magic Mike

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Amy Adams - The Master
Sally Field - Lincoln
Anne Hathaway - Les Misérables
Helen Hunt - The Sessions
Maggie Smith - The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Paul Thomas Anderson - The Master
Wes Anderson and Roman Coppola - Moonrise Kingdom
Mark Boal - Zero Dark Thirty
Michael Haneke - Amour
Quentin Tarantino - Django Unchained

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Tony Kushner - Lincoln
David Magee - Life of Pi
William Nicholson - Les Misérables
David O. Russell - Silver Linings Playbook
Chris Terrio - Argo

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Roger Deakins - Skyfall
Greig Frasier - Zero Dark Thirty
Janusz Kaminski - Lincoln
Claudio Miranda - Life of Pi
Robert Richardson - Django Unchained

[domino harvey]

These are probably correct, although I can see Jack Black getting bumped in favor of Bradley Cooper or John Hawkes.

It's a tough category, though I feel like there's room for a big surprise in each acting quadrant (which I've tried to peg, but god only knows), but I suspect the Sessions might be one of those Oscar bait-y indies that fails to deliver anything, and Silver Linings Playbook looks like an underperformer so far (though it would take a miracle for Lawrence to not win). Jack Black does exactly what the Oscars like and Bernie's exactly the kind of movie that wins people over thanks to screeners, so if the studios did their job, I think it could surprise here and maybe even screenplay

[knives]

Jeff as much as I would love it I doubt Amour gets in for BP or that Deakins wins (though certainly he will have to get nominated).

[Jeff]

Jeff as much as I would love it I doubt Amour gets in for BP or that Deakins wins (though certainly he will have to get nominated).

I am going to cause these things to happen by sheer force of will.

[domino harvey]

Wouldn't it be amazing to see the Master and Moonrise Kingdom make it to the Best Pic slot and Les Miz get Dreamgirls'd? I think little cartoon hearts would literally shoot out of my eyes

[knives]

Really just the last part is all I need to have the cartoon hearts. I really don't want a reason to watch that film.

[domino harvey]

It couldn't be worse than Beasts of the Southern Wild, but I'm not in any hurry to prove that theory

[matrixschmatrix]

I had thought the buzz was that Phoenix's active contempt for the Oscar process had scuttled his chances for a Best Actor nom?

[domino harvey]

I had thought the buzz was that Phoenix's active contempt for the Oscar process had scuttled his chances for a Best Actor nom?

Nah, the Oscars love giving noms and sometimes wins to actors who don't give a shit

[knives]

Certainly there's been winners with nastier things to say. I think they just like any attention they can get.

It couldn't be worse than Beasts of the Southern Wild, but I'm not in any hurry to prove that theory

Thankfully I haven't seen it either yet, though I'm not hopeful. Seems like an incredibly stupid Márquez riff based on the trailers.

[eerik]

For what it's worth, Estonian Film Journalists Union TOP10:
1. Holy Motors
2. The Turin Horse
3. Shame
4. A Separation
5.-6. Moonrise Kingdom
5.-6. The Angels' Share
7. Intouchables
8. Beasts of the Southern Wild
9. Hugo
10.-11. Iron Sky
10.-11. Tyrannosaur

(Only includes films that had theatrical run in Estonia in 2012)


And in other news, there's already a placeholder on Youtube for tomorrows nominations announcement event.

[hearthesilence]

Certainly there's been winners with nastier things to say. I think they just like any attention they can get.

It couldn't be worse than Beasts of the Southern Wild, but I'm not in any hurry to prove that theory

Thankfully I haven't seen it either yet, though I'm not hopeful. Seems like an incredibly stupid Márquez riff based on the trailers.

I've only seen it once - I think there's some brilliant moments, but plenty of cringe-inducing ones too. Better production values but otherwise it feels close to a student thesis film - I was under the impression that the director and most of the crew weren't far removed from film school.

[dustybooks]

I feel somewhat embarrassed to mention that I really loved Beasts but I'm too far removed from it now to mount much of a worthwhile defense, not that I likely could anyway. But I'm surprised by all the Oscar season attention for it... Moonrise Kingdom is adored by nearly everyone who sees it, and thus I have to agree that it deserves the equivalent buzz far more. Of course, when did "deserving" have anything to do with it, etc.

[lacritfan]

Jeff as much as I would love it I doubt Amour gets in for BP or that Deakins wins (though certainly he will have to get nominated).

I am going to cause these things to happen by sheer force of will.

Deakins is certainly due and as much as I want him to win an Oscar I just feel like winning for Skyfall would be like Pacino finally winning for Scent of a Woman so I'd rather he lose this year and sometime in the near future he does something like Assassination of Jesse James... or a Coen Bros movie with an interesting palatte like Fargo and finally winning for that.
I agree with Domino's note on director, they're known for throwing in one left field nom from time to time. I think depending on how many of them saw Amour I can see Haneke taking that fifth spot over PTA this year.

[mfunk9786]

I'm just making my personal choices, don't feel informed enough on awards trends this year to predict noms, but I'd love to MAKE noms myself. So that's my disclaimer, these aren't realistic predictions, just who/what I'd nominate if I had a ballot - trying to stick to where the campaigning is where I can (even though stuff like Ann Dowd being designated as a supporting actress in Compliance is ridiculous). And I haven't seen Lincoln or Amour yet - I've always been fussy about eating my vegetables. So they're not on my list. I'm just killing time here, folks. My winners in red, too - what the hell. Boy howdy, is Best Supporting Actor a stacked category this year or what? Both wins for The Master actors were very difficult choices, they could easily have gone to Lavant or Jackson, respectively - which is a testament to how strong all four (Phoenix, Lavant, Hoffman, Jackson) of those performances were.

Best Picture
Django Unchained
Here's my top 10 list so you can use your imagination re: what my other nominees would be

Best Director
Ben Affleck, Argo
Quentin Tarantino, Django Unchained
Leos Carax, Holy Motors
Paul Thomas Anderson, The Master
Wes Anderson, Moonrise Kingdom
Honorable Mention: Kathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty

Best Actor
Jack Black, Bernie
Jamie Foxx, Django Unchained
Denis Lavant, Holy Motors
Joaquin Phoenix, The Master
Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook
Honorable Mention: Channing Tatum, Magic Mike

Best Actress
Dreama Walker, Compliance
Kara Hayward, Moonrise Kingdom
Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Kaya Scodelario, Wuthering Heights
Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
Honorable Mention: Sophie Nélisse, Monsieur Lazhar

Best Supporting Actor
Leonardo DiCaprio, Django Unchained
Samuel L. Jackson, Django Unchained
Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained
Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
Matthew McConaughey, Killer Joe
Honorable Mention: Bruce Willis, Moonrise Kingdom

Best Supporting Actress
Ann Dowd, Compliance
Kerry Washington, Django Unchained
Gina Gershon, Killer Joe
Amy Adams, The Master
Jacki Weaver, Silver Linings Playbook
Honorable Mention: Cody Horn, Magic Mike

[matrixschmatrix]

It seems almost perverse to call Waltz's role in Django a supporting one, though I've no doubt that's how it was submitted to the Academy. There are essentially no rules for that, right? Just however the producers choose to submit it?

[Matt]

There are no rules for that. Remember that Frances McDormand was up for (and won) Best Actress for Fargo while William H. Macy was up for Best Supporting Actor despite the fact that she was on screen in the film for less time than he was.

[mfunk9786]

There are no rules but the studios try to choose their spots by submitting "For Your Consideration" stuff under a particular category, either depending on where someone's likely to get votes or what category seems less crowded.

As for Waltz - even though he has a ton of screen time, he's not the title character - Django is. I think I'd probably consider him a supporting actor even though he's on screen so much, and begins the film in control of the plot. As for Ann Dowd though, she's the main character (even though she's not the one on the posters and in the line of fire, so to speak) of the film, and I find the supporting actress campaign a bit puzzling.