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domino harvey wrote:

knives wrote:That one speech almost is worth sixty years of the Globes existence.

And the Hangover winning was worth it being disbanded

I loved they won, just for the fact that Mike Tyson really looked out place in that crowd. My vote was with 500 Days of Summer, but at least I'm fine that The Hangover won and Nine didn't.

proving once again that The Golden Globes are a complete waste of time.

In both Best movies categories, I wonder what I would have vote.
I know which ones I didn't want to win, but then, there were none left.

Avatar should win "Best Picture Where A Smurf Rapes A Dragon." That's about it.

Based not on the GG but rather on the crix pix (for who will win) and B.O., I'd say Avatar has a "virtual" lock on Best Picture. And I think Bigelow's "lock" on Best Director is at risk of being picked.

If Cameron gets a second Oscar for directing, i will make it my life's mission that the 'Academy' never give awards again!

Start prepping for your mission.

tavernier wrote:Start prepping for your mission.

And remember, if you or any of your IF team are captured or killed, the secretary will disavow any knowledge of your actions.
This thread will self-destruct in 10 seconds.

OT:
Whereas until a few days ago I'd stay logged on perpetually, I'm now having to log on several times a day ... WTF?

Avatar won't win either big prize, quote these words when they prove true

I don't think it will either.

I want you guys to both be right. What's the thought process Domino or Fly?

Insta-Backlash. Its win at the Golden Globes was no surprise. It'll get a lot of noms (maybe not as many as people think it will) and walk away with all the technical, but the Oscars are gonna give Bigelow the Best Director and the Best Picture really is, with Best Actress, the only horse race-- but I suspect its gonna skew small. Maybe the Hurt Locker in a Departed-type "Well, we already voted for it for Best Director, might as well" shrug vote. Up in the Air for screenplay is its prize, Inglorious Basterds will have Supporting Actor, Precious Supporting Actress, and that's it for those three as far as wins. Actually, I'm more interested in the noms than I am the results, as I can think of four locks for most categories, making the fifth slot really fascinating to wait for. Plus with the invariable snubs (My probably not so crazy prediction-- Wait for it-- I think the should-win Carey Mulligan won't even pop up as a nom), who knows what the whole mess will look like!

In addition to this, I wouldn't be surprised if Avatar is quarantined with a 'special award'. Keeps the geeks happy and watching the broadcast while their hopes and dreams crash around them.

It's 10 nominees each, domino. Unless the rules changed again.

Best Picture is the only category that went from five to ten

I know it stings, but Avatar is going to win Best Picture. No other nominee is being talked about by the public, save Inglourious Basterds, and that was months ago. Avatar will stay on 3D screens until 3/5, and people will continue going to see it because of the inevitable press of it surpassing Titanic's gross and becoming the first film to gross over 2 billion dollars. In contrast, The Hurt Locker is far under the radar, much more so than No Country for Old Men or The Departed.

[quote="domino harvey"]Insta-Backlash. Its win at the Golden Globes was no surprise. It'll get a lot of noms (maybe not as many as people think it will) and walk away with all the technical, but the Oscars are gonna give Bigelow the Best Director and the Best Picture really is, with Best Actress, the only horse race-- but I suspect its gonna skew small. Maybe the Hurt Locker in a Departed-type "Well, we already voted for it for Best Director, might as well" shrug vote. Up in the Air for screenplay is its prize, Inglorious Basterds will have Supporting Actor, Precious Supporting Actress, and that's it for those three as far as wins. quote]

In general, I think I'm with Domino here - I argued against an Avatar win a few pages back (mainly because of the importance of actors in the academy) and although I'm less sure now thanks to the GGs and its box office, I certainly don't think it's a lock.

Also - don't forget the introduction of preferential voting for best picture. This could screw up all our thinking - now the film which is 2nd or 3rd favourite of a majority of the academy could will be the winner. What this means in practice is difficult to say, but when the final noms list comes out it might make more sense. This could be the game changer for something like Up in the Air - I can imagine Avatar, Inglourious Basterds and Hurt Locker being more divisive and ending up in opposite ends of voters' lists.

Acting wise, I'm with Domino as well. Supports are pretty much locks (memo to self - remember Binoche / Bacall), and I think Jeff Bridges must be favourite for Actor. As for Actress - who knows? Streep looks likely, but after Bullock's win (for a big hit)...

I originally thought Best Actress was Streep's to lose since she played a 1) real, 2) beloved, 3) dead person, but I'm sensing a little Streep fatigue (does she take every decent role for a woman over 50?). I'm now betting that Sandy takes Best Actress. Sandra Bullock's 20-year career was almost given up for dead not that long ago, and now she's had two big hits this past year. She's the kind of Hollywood veteran/survivor/actress who's paid her dues that people just love to root for and she's playing a real, (and perhaps more importantly) lovably feisty person. She is Julia Roberts circa 2001.

Christ, Bullock's made a bunch of shitty movies. (But she's so adorable!)

Foreign Language Short List:

Argentina, “El Secreto de Sus Ojos,” Juan Jose Campanella, director;
Australia, “Samson & Delilah,” Warwick Thornton, director;
Bulgaria, “The World Is Big and Salvation Lurks around the Corner,” Stephan Komandarev, director;
France, “Un Prophète,” Jacques Audiard, director;
Germany, “The White Ribbon,” Michael Haneke, director;
Israel, “Ajami,” Scandar Copti and Yaron Shani, directors;
Kazakhstan, “Kelin,” Ermek Tursunov, director;
The Netherlands, “Winter in Wartime,” Martin Koolhoven, director;
Peru, “The Milk of Sorrow,” Claudia Llosa, director.

Un Prophete or White Ribbon?

They have to whittle it down to 5 first....it wouldn't be a shock to see one of those films left off the final nomination list.

tavernier wrote:They have to whittle it down to 5 first....it wouldn't be a shock to see one of those films left off the final nomination list.

. . . or to see the other one lose to something fluffy and cheerful.

reno dakota wrote:. . . or to see the other one lose to something fluffy and cheerful.

That was going to be my response to perkizitore's question, too: neither. Remember how Waltz with Bashir and The Class (not to mention Revanche and The Baader Meinhof Complex lost to Departures last year?

Which ones are about the Holocaust so I can declare the winner now