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JSC wrote: Thu Jan 23, 2025 2:41 pm

I can't remember anything in recent memory that's as shocking as I'm Still Here in Best Picture.

Not quite on topic, but I was just looking at Walter Salles' wiki page and was suprised to learn that he's the
third wealthiest filmmaker (after Spielberg and Lucas!) with an estimated 4.2 billion.

thirtyframesasecond wrote:Challengers not being nom'd for Score seems odd.

pianocrash wrote: Thu Jan 23, 2025 11:24 pm This is the better choice of the two Stan pictures (the other I absolutely detested)

mfunk9786 wrote: Fri Jan 24, 2025 10:22 pm

pianocrash wrote: Thu Jan 23, 2025 11:24 pm This is the better choice of the two Stan pictures (the other I absolutely detested)

I would not say I detested A Different Man, it had some interesting redeeming qualities around the edges of something pretty amateurish, Stan being one of them. But it's not the better performance, that's for sure.

domino harvey wrote: Thu Jan 30, 2025 1:43 am There is some speculation that Gascon's recent comments about fellow nominee Fernanda Torres may result in her suspension (though she worded it as "people working with Fernanda Torres," which could be read either way). I don't think she was going to win anyways, but not a great look for her or the movie (though I still think this wins it)

domino harvey wrote: Thu Jan 30, 2025 7:50 pm Could be a year like when Spotlight won-- a film everyone more or less thought was okay and no one was too upset about winning over the Revenant, which still gets the major runner up prizes. So, Conclave / Corbet (since Audiard might be tarnished)? Buuuuuuuuuuuuut I think we've already seen that the industry loves EP and has almost no awareness of its unpopularity online (which isn't real life, true), so will they even see this?

domino harvey wrote: Thu Jan 30, 2025 7:50 pm Could be a year like when Spotlight won-- a film everyone more or less thought was okay and no one was too upset about winning over the Revenant, which still gets the major runner up prizes. So, Conclave / Corbet (since Audiard might be tarnished)? Buuuuuuuuuuuuut I think we've already seen that the industry loves EP and has almost no awareness of its unpopularity online (which isn't real life, true), so will they even see this?

MV88 wrote: Thu Jan 30, 2025 10:27 pm Personally, I don’t think Berger’s snub in Best Director hurts the movie’s chances too much in Best Picture. CODA and Green Book recently won without Best Director nominations, so it’s not nearly as rare an occurrence as it was once.

I think Conclave could easily benefit from the preferential ballot system. The Brutalist, Emilia Perez, and Anora will get plenty of #1 votes, but I imagine they’ll also end up towards the bottom of more voters’ ballots than Conclave will. Plus, I think Conclave could win at BAFTA and/or SAG, in which case it would have to be considered a serious threat even without a Best Director nomination.

Also, regarding the negativity towards Emilia Perez being mostly an online thing, while that is true enough, I think the difference with this movie as opposed to, say, Green Book (which also received a lot of online hate), is that I don’t think it has much appeal among casual movie watchers either. Green Book and to a lesser extent CODA were wildly unpopular Best Picture winners online, but most “regular” people (i.e., non-cinephiles) loved them. I don’t see that crossover appeal happening with Emilia Perez. It really does seem to be *just* the industry that likes it, which is why, despite its 13 nominations, I’m somewhat skeptical it will actually win Best Picture. At the moment, I think Supporting Actress and Original Song are all it gets.

domino harvey wrote: Thu Jan 30, 2025 11:05 pm A Complete Unknown is perhaps in a similar position to Conclave, but I have my doubts on it being popular enough with international voters, and it also doesn’t feel “important” enough, which is something a lot of voters consider. I think it also doesn’t win without Chalamet winning, which I doubt is going to happen (despite his entertaining homespun publicity campaign)