criterionforum.org

My personal picks for the Oscars:

Best Picture:
Should Win:
"Django Unchained"
Will Win:
"Lincoln"

Best Director
Should Win:
Quentin Tarantino - Django Unchained
Will Win:
Steven Spielberg - Lincoln

Best Actor In A Leading Role
Should Win:
Joaquin Phoenix - The Master
Will Win:
Denzel Washington - "Flight"

Best Actress In A Leading Role
Should Win:
Emmanuelle Riva - "Amour"
Will Win:
Jessica Chastain - "Zero Dark Thirty"

Best Actor In A Supporting Role
Should Win:
Christoph Waltz - "Django Unchained"
Will Win:
Philip Seymour Hoffman - "The Master"

Best Actress In A Supporting Role
Should Win:
Sally Field - "Lincoln"
Will Win:
Anne Hathaway - "Les Miserables"

Best Original Screenplay
Should Win:
Quentin Tarantino - "Django Unchained"
Will Win:
Quentin Tarantino - "Django Unchained"

Best Adapted Screenplay
Should Win:
Tony Kushner - "Lincoln"
Will Win:
Lucy Alibar, Benh Zeitlin - "Beasts of the Southern Wild"

Best Foreign Language Film
Should Win:
"No"
Will Win:
"Amour"

Best Animated Feature Film
Should Win:
Paranorman
Will Win:
Paranorman

Best Original Song
Who gives a shit

Best Cinematography
Should Win:
Robert Richardson - "Django Unchained"
Will Win:
Robert Richardson - "Django Unchained"

Best Film Editing
Should Win:
William Goldenberg, Dylan Tichenor - Zero Dark Thirty
Will Win:
Michael Kahn - Lincoln

By the way, dear Academy: HITCHCOCK for Best Makeup? What the fuck?

I can't really see anyone but Day-Lewis getting the actor win.

The most disappointing snub: Moonrise Kingdom getting shut out of Best Picture

The most satisfying snub: Maggie Smith for Quartet. Granted, I haven't seen the movie, but it sure looks like blatant Oscar bait for an unremarkable veteran actress. Plus, it's a Weinstein release, and I always like seeing their Oscar machine sputter a bit (granted, their Silver Linings Playbook campaign overproduced, but at least that film actually deserved what it got).

More than that, I think Lincoln sweeps with wins for Pic, Spielberg, DDL, Kushner, and Jones. Maybe more. Harvey is obviously working his magic for Silver Linings Playbook, so I think Lawrence is a lock there too.

Finch - Tarantino isn't even nominated for Best Director.

I think it's between Lincoln and Silver Linings Playbook now. SLP clearly connected with voters and Lincoln seems to be a film people admire but without much enthusiasm-- SLP may be the little film that could. None of the other Best Pics with director noms feel likely

So we're in a Shakespeare in Love vs. Saving Private Ryan scenario again.

Just for fun, I figured out what the best picture nominees would be if you applied the Academy's rules to our Dynamic Top Tens of 2012 thread (counting only the top 5 films from each list, and only qualifying those films that have at least 5% of the total votes cast, up to 10). And the nominees would be:

Spoiler

Django Unchained
Holy Motors
Killer Joe
The Master
Moonrise Kingdom
The Turin Horse (This had enough votes to qualify, but would it have been eligible under Academy rules?)

That list is so much better.

Not sure about the rules - I know there was a time when you had foreign language films that were nominated in that category (Foreign Language Films) one year, then get nominations in other categories the following year due to different distribution dates, but I'm not certain this can happen anymore?

You know, I was so sure about Cotillard getting nominated for Rust and Bone that I didn't notice until now that she got screwed. Bah.

must be some rule barring 2 French actresses from getting nominated the same year

LQ wrote:Shutting The Master out of Best Picture, Best Director, and Best Original Screenplay, yet nominating all three actors, is just bizarre.

Now that I think about it, that sentence probably best sums up how I felt about the film. Three great performances (and an interesting score).

And the best cinematography of the year, which also wasn't nominated. I am more sore about the cinematography than anything - I realize the film is polarizing - but five films were lensed better this year? Oh please.

Now that Phoenix has been justly nominated, I hope people start thinking about voting for him. After the craziness of these nominations, anything could happen (Amy Adams over Anne Hathaway? Nah... But a guy can dream!)

I'm only watching this year to find out who Emmanuelle Riva will be wearing.

So bummed that Mihai Malaimare Jr didn't get nominated.

If you want to cheer up, just consider the fact that people will still be watching The Master in 50 years, and no one will be watching Anna Karenina... right now.

mfunk9786 wrote:... and no one will be watching Anna Karenina... right now.

That's not true. I watched Garbo and March just a couple of weeks ago. So there.

[Not] 50 years from now:

That's not true. I watched Knightley and Taylor-Johnson just a couple of weeks ago. So there.

mfunk9786 wrote:[Not] 50 years from now:

That's not true. I watched Knightley and Taylor-Johnson just a couple of weeks ago. So there.

Well, 50 years from now I'll be 114, but if I were still here, I'd still be watching Garbo and March.

How janked up were this year's nominations? The highest-ranking Oscar "expert" still only had 73 % accuracy in predicting 'em

swo17 wrote:...The Turin Horse (This had enough votes to qualify, but would it have been eligible under Academy rules?)

The Turin Horse did not appear on the list of films that qualified for Best Picture consideration this year. It may have done a qualifying run in L.A. last year.

hearthesilence wrote:Not sure about the rules - I know there was a time when you had foreign language films that were nominated in that category (Foreign Language Films) one year, then get nominations in other categories the following year due to different distribution dates, but I'm not certain this can happen anymore?

It still works that way. Each country gets to submit one film for consideration in the Best Foreign Language Film category. It has to have opened commercially in the country that submits it by the end of September. To qualify in the other categories, it has to open in L.A. county by the end of December. City of God was one example where this actually helped the film. Brazil submitted it as their entry for 2002 (as it had opened in August of that year in Brazil). It was not selected by the Foreign Language Committee as one of the five nominees though. It didn't open in the U.S. until 2003, and was nominated the following year for Best Cinematography, Best Directing, Best Editing, and Best Adapted Screenplay.

domino harvey wrote:I think it's between Lincoln and Silver Linings Playbook now. SLP clearly connected with voters and Lincoln seems to be a film people admire but without much enthusiasm-- SLP may be the little film that could. None of the other Best Pics with director noms feel likely

I like both of those films. I'm afraid the "little film that could" going up against Lincoln might end up being Beasts of the Southern Wild, a film I've grown to hate more with each passing day. It got quite a few nominations, and lots of people are in love with the damn thing. It feels like this year's Crash, which I guess makes Lincoln this year's Brokeback Mountain or something.

Jeff wrote:

swo17 wrote:...The Turin Horse (This had enough votes to qualify, but would it have been eligible under Academy rules?)

The Turin Horse did not appear on the list of films that qualified for Best Picture consideration this year. It may have done a qualifying run in L.A. last year.

Not that it would ever have been nominated anyway, but The Turin Horse apparently had its run in L.A. in March of 2012. As I understand it, other than NYFF in 2011, all of its U.S. screenings were during 2012.

mfunk9786 wrote:If you want to cheer up, just consider the fact that people will still be watching The Master in 50 years, and no one will be watching Anna Karenina... right now.

Why hate on that film (and presumably McGarvey who is one of the best DPs working today)?