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Mario G. wrote: Thu Jan 30, 2025 10:48 pm I'd also push back a little on the casual movie watchers hating EP too thing. I haven't come across many people who have actually seen it, but the people who have (and aren't online) have really enjoyed it. That's different from CODA and Green Book, because I think people actually went out of their way to see those, but I note it because I'm not seeing the hate manifest in the real world. I think your broader point stands though because I'm just not seeing the populist uprising those other two winners had for EP. Ironically enough I am seeing that with Complete Unknown. Might just be a New York thing but people keep bringing this movie up as their favorite.

I didn't quite intend to imply that the general public doesn't like Emilia Perez so much as, exactly as you stated, they're not going out of their way to see it. The full-on hatred may exclusively be an online/Film Twitter thing, but I certainly don't envision it becoming a crossover hit with casual movie watchers. The internet hates it, and the general public just doesn't seem to care about it at all. That's why I'm skeptical of its Best Picture chances. Green Book and CODA were movies that, despite the vitriol they received on social media, the Academy could vote for comfortably knowing that casual audiences would respond well to them. I don't think the same is true of EP. Plus there's the issue of the internet hating it for not being a good representation of trans issues, while I'm sure a good portion of the general public would hate it for even addressing trans issues at all.

Either way, if it does in fact win Best Picture, it'll instantly be regarded as among the worst winners ever by a lot of people.

I think Wicked doesn't win because then it has to win for part two as well. And even those who like it will likely rank it low because they know it has a better shot next year

Also, like, does Netflix have a humiliation fetish? Why are they not shutting up everyone from this movie already? This was a walk to the top categories and somehow, after the last couple days, Gascon is still issuing responses as of minutes ago that don't read like they came from any actual PR department!

someone at Variety is running a tear on KSG. they're pumping out articles and tweets about this constantly. I can't see any way that voters go for this at this juncture - as we said this doesn't seem to be some sort of niche takedown, this is a full scale, unavoidable thing

I'm looking at Conclave and The Brutalist as the "safe" choices

I pray that Emilia Perez becomes the new American Hustle, in that it gets the title of most Oscar noms with 0 wins, I could hardly imagine a better film to receive that title.

The official Oscar Instagram account unfollowed Gascon, it's clearly penetrating to the Academy by now

Goldderby's odds are plummeting in suit

TechnicolorAcid wrote: Fri Jan 31, 2025 8:21 pm I pray that Emilia Perez becomes the new American Hustle, in that it gets the title of most Oscar noms with 0 wins, I could hardly imagine a better film to receive that title.

all two of its fans are disappointed. also still can't believe I like American Hustle, despite usually not being a fan of that director at all..

this has been a very entertaining awards season, but I ultimately think it's gonna lead to fairly predictable results on the night of the show. I'm excited to see

I don't know, the Academy cares a lot about how they look and she went after the awards in an indefensible, non-George C Scott way. I just don't see this movie winning anything at this point, unless Gascon falls on her sword and requests her nomination be withdrawn (which I don't think is even an option for her)-- does the Academy want anyone thinking of Gascon even if someone else from the movie wins it? There's a tacit endorsement in any win...

Of course, a week from now we could learn Chalamet was actually eating people in Bones and All and the controversy could shift, so who knows

I've heard the Academy's bringing back last year's "five previous winners introduce the acting nominees" format, can't wait to see who'll be flop-sweating through trying to find something nice to say about her.

The Narrator Returns wrote: Fri Jan 31, 2025 9:54 pm I've heard the Academy's bringing back last year's "five previous winners introduce the acting nominees" format, can't wait to see who'll be flop-sweating through trying to find something nice to say about her.

I'm sure Marion Cotillard would do it, but I doubt they keep those plans if Gascon is attending

I've held back on expecting Gascon to drag the whole movie down with her, but honestly it looks like that might've been her long-term goal.

Saldana's statement reads like it was written by someone who did blackface for an entire movie before. this movie is toast

I do agree with what Dom said above - I can't see the academy or it's voters endorsing this movie any further in any meaningful way. it's one thing to say the awards are bullshit, but what KSG has said has pretty much unraveled all of this, and it's not like it was some 20 year old thing. all of this was recent enough to where there can't be any sort of meaningful defense

TechnicolorAcid wrote: Fri Jan 31, 2025 8:21 pm I pray that Emilia Perez becomes the new American Hustle, in that it gets the title of most Oscar noms with 0 wins, I could hardly imagine a better film to receive that title.

It will win Best Song - the two entries from Emilia Perez are way out ahead in the odds. It might with some technical awards?

I can't see the Academy awarding Grande. It'd be wild if this propelled Felicity Jones to be a contender

thirtyframesasecond wrote: Fri Jan 31, 2025 10:20 pm

TechnicolorAcid wrote: Fri Jan 31, 2025 8:21 pm I pray that Emilia Perez becomes the new American Hustle, in that it gets the title of most Oscar noms with 0 wins, I could hardly imagine a better film to receive that title.

It will win Best Song - the two entries from Emilia Perez are way out ahead in the odds. It might with some technical awards?

Well, Diane Warren is nominated yet again and has never won. There's a new narrative right there, if voters want it

TWBB: I think Jones or Rossellini could take it too. This category has single-handedly delivered three of the biggest upsets in Oscar history in my lifetime (Tomei, Paquin, Harden), what's a fourth?

I don't think Rossellini does enough in the movie to get the W, but the Academy loves to reward the 'owed'. Curious to see how the lead-up awards go in that category, if there'll be a surprising turn of allegiance a la Jamie Lee Curtis

And that too is a good example of the "second place" nominee taking it in the category, like Binoche over Bacall (though Curtis broke the streak of the presumed winner taking it, you have to go all the way back to Swinton's win fifteen years earlier to find the most recent surprise win in the category)

Diane Warren could be a Paul Newman situation-getting a competitive award shortly after an honorary Oscar, but I think Emilia is a lock

domino harvey wrote: Fri Jan 31, 2025 10:24 pm TWBB: I think Jones or Rossellini could take it too. This category has single-handedly delivered three of the biggest upsets in Oscar history in my lifetime (Tomei, Paquin, Harden), what's a fourth?

The lineup definitely looks much stronger than I presume the winner was, but who was tipped to win Actress in 2000 over Harden?

Kate Hudson for Almost Famous, she won the Globe. Judi Dench won the SAG for Chocolat but she hadn't won for Shakespeare in Love there.

Yes, Hudson was a shoo in, or so it was thought. Like, think of the least surprising nominee/winner in the last decade, she was at that level. What's more wild is that Harden was dead last in all of the predix I saw going into the ceremony, and her film was not that beloved (Ed Harris didn't also win, for starters)-- no one ever talks about this with the same disbelief as Tomei's win, but it was just as unlikely

Makes sense, but removed from context that just sounds like yet another case of the ingenue not quite getting there in the end - which I desperately hope does NOT happen this time around, as Mikey Madison is great and 3/5 noms are for bad performances in bad movies

I guess Anora could wiggle into some of what were once Emilia Perez's spots, but its goose seems cooked and I can't imagine Madison making it past Demi Moore. But also I like Moore in Substance more than Madison, who does good work but can't overcome that the movie, however much fun it is, is a failure as a study of that character.

I think Moore has it too, unless there's a groundswell for Anora, which makes no sense as a Best Picture winner without Madison winning as well