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jojo wrote:Since How to Train Your Dragon 2 won at the Golden Globes, and now The Lego Movie gets snubbed at the Oscars, the conspiracy theorists have to suspect there's some push for HTTYD2 to win it.

Although it won't stop me from hoping Kaguya scores an upset win.

Wasn't it made clear the year that Kung Fu Panda essentially swept the Annies over Wall-E that DreamWorks made sure all of their production crew were both registered to vote and did so? I thought this would be the same deal, though I'm not sure who gets to vote on the final ballot...

Fingers crossed for Kaguya-hime no Monogatari as well.

Gotta say, the cadre of people complaining about the Oscars rewarding exclusively niche stuff this year are looking might foolish with American Sniper's bafflingly high weekend (performing more on track with something like Captain America than even Gravity). In just yesterday and today alone it should outdo Gravity's opening weekend and go close to doubling it over the four days.

The Grand Budapest Hotel being the most mainstream of the Oscar nominees this year was very short-lived, but I enjoyed it while it lasted.

I think Boyhood and Birdman were 10x more mainstream than TGBH.

ordinaryperson wrote:I think Boyhood and Birdman were 10x more mainstream than TGBH.

It isn't clear how you're defining "mainstream", but the box office numbers say The Grand Budapest Hotel alone earned more than BIrdman and Boyhood combined--and that's still true if you take Birdman and Boyhood's total and then add $6 million.

Edited for correct box office.

No unless somehow 50 is half of 60.

Ribs wrote:Gotta say, the cadre of people complaining about the Oscars rewarding exclusively niche stuff this year are looking might foolish with American Sniper's bafflingly high weekend (performing more on track with something like Captain America than even Gravity). In just yesterday and today alone it should outdo Gravity's opening weekend and go close to doubling it over the four days.

I can't wait for the film's target audience to complain and accuse Hollywood of liberal bias when the film comes out empty-handed Oscar night.

And, just when this season started to appear uninteresting, we get a major curveball in the Producer's Guild giving the top prize to Birdman.

The season just got exciting again.

I'd be so shocked if it weren't Boyhood, but maybe proponents of that and The Grand Budapest Hotel are splitting votes.

mfunk9786 wrote:I'd be so shocked if it weren't Boyhood, but maybe proponents of that and The Grand Budapest Hotel are splitting votes.

I think the tiered voting is playing against Boyhood, as I'd guess fans of Birdman and Budapest are more likely to list the other above Boyhood (as the films are more generally similar). (Similarly; American Sniper's (likely steadily increasing amount) votes won't be likely to go to the ultra-liberal Boyhood)

What would really be insane and throw everything askew is if the Best Ensemble award tonight at the SAG awards went to Budapest. Then it would really become an anybody's-game scenario between the three of them.

At the very least it appears all hopes of an Imitation Game upset are dead in the water.

Actors make up the biggest voting bloc in the Academy, isn't that correct? Given the overlap with SAG and the previous PGA win, I think Birdman is now a solid front runner for Best Picture.

hearthesilence wrote:Actors make up the biggest voting bloc in the Academy, isn't that correct? Given the overlap with SAG and the previous PGA win, I think Birdman is now a solid front runner for Best Picture.

Yes, they do, but producers/executives make up a similarly-sized chunk.

I think the biggest threat comes from American Sniper, which might not win categories but the kind of members that would list it at the top for Best Picture are not likely to list a film as openly left-leaning as Boyhood immediately below it on their ballot. That's likely to account for at least some of Boyhood's decline in the past week or two.

Well anyone outside Eddie Redmayne, Julianne Moore, J.K. Simmons and Patricia Arquette would be an upset at this point.

hearthesilence wrote:Actors make up the biggest voting bloc in the Academy, isn't that correct? Given the overlap with SAG and the previous PGA win, I think Birdman is now a solid front runner for Best Picture.

The last ten years the SAG award winner won the Oscar roughly half the time. The PGA winner has won the last seven years in a row though...
I don't see the older Academy members "getting" Birdman though so I think Best Pic is still up in the air.

GaryC wrote:Nominees for Best Film at the AACTA Awards, to be given out in Sydney on 29 January:

The Babadook
Charlie's Country
Predestination
The Railway Man
Tracks
The Water Diviner

Interesting list. I've seen all except Predestination and The Water Diviner, the two which haven't opened in the UK yet.

And the winners are, in a tie, The Babadook and The Water Diviner. Full list of feature-film winners:

BEST FILM: The Babadook: Kristina Ceyton And Kristian Moliere; The Water Diviner: Andrew Mason, Keith Rodger And Troylum
BEST DIRECTION: The Babadook: Jennifer Kent
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: The Babadook: Jennifer Kent
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: The Railway Man: Frank Cottrell Boyce, Andy Paterson
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY: Predestination: Ben Nott ACS
BEST EDITING: Predestination: Matt Villa ASE
BEST SOUND: The Rover: Sam Petty, Des Kenneally, Justine Angus,Brooke Trezise, Francis Ward Lindsay And Robert Mackenzie
BEST ORIGINAL MUSIC SCORE: The Railway Man: David Hirschfelder
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN: Predestination: Matthew Putland
BEST COSTUME DESIGN: The Water Diviner: Tess Schofield
BEST LEAD ACTOR: David Gulpilil: Charlie’s Country
BEST LEAD ACTRESS: Sarah Snook: Predestination
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: Yilmaz Erdogan: The Water Diviner
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Susan Prior: The Rover
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS OR ANIMATION: The Lego Movie: Chris Mckay, Amber Naismith, Aidan Sarsfield, Grant Freckelton

BAFTA winners

Actually a solid set of picks, the only thing that feels egregious is a mediocrity like The Theory of Everything representing the "best" of British cinema. I can't tell you how disappointed I was with that film - even with the talent it had, it felt like a thin, dumbed-down version of Hawking's story done with little imagination, not unless you count lifting a famous close-up or two from the same Jean-Luc Godard film (the coffee, the burning embers). Mr. Turner's snub feels all the more ridiculous - it may not be one of Leigh's masterpieces, but it's easily better than any of the other biopics in every possible way.

lacritfan wrote:Iñárritu wins DGA Award for Birdman

Wow, even with the tide turning I did not expect that to happen. I can't believe the weird and wonderful Birdman really might end up taking Best Picture, what a world we live in!

I was browsing the Gold Derby forums to gauge their crazed responses to the recent turnabouts and spotted this post which I thought was actually pretty cute:

THE BEST PICTURE NOMINEES AS IF THEY WERE SCHOOL COURSES

American Sniper: Gym
Birdman: Drama Club
Boyhood: Biology
The Grand Budapest Hotel: Art
The Imitation Game: History
Selma: Social Studies
The Theory of Everything: Mathematics
Whiplash: Music

Whiplash would be one of the rare instances where the music teacher also coached the football team.

I now have the image of J.K. Simmons yelling and hurling dodge balls at Bradley Cooper's head. "Come on pretty boy! FOCUS! You piece of shit!"

Oscar Nominee ‘Tangerines’ Picked By Samuel Goldwyn Films

Better late than never, I guess.

This evening, ASC hands out it's awards. The following is an interesting video clip on the 5 nominees.

Can you guess which four of the eight Best Picture nominees pass the Bechdel Test?

Spoiler

FAILED: American Sniper, the Grand Budapest Hotel, the Imitation Game, Whiplash
PASSED: Birdman, Boyhood, Selma, the Theory of Everything

The only measure less relevant than an Oscar nomination!