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Anyone wanna throw down on some predix in advance on Tuesday's nominations?

I predict we will fill 3 pages with outrage and bewilderment at another year of terrible nominees. Some wandering Avatar fans will chance upon our discussion and begin to attack us virtually, much like the plot of said film. Mr. Sausage will try to bring things back to order, but ultimately, Matt will be forced to lock the thread.

domino harvey wrote:Anyone wanna throw down on some predix in advance on Tuesday's nominations?

Best Picture
Avatar
District 9
An Education
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Invictus
Precious
A Serious Man
Up
Up in the Air

I'd like to take a risk and not predict Invictus because I see no passion for the film, so I'm tempted to replace it with the surging Crazy Heart. The Messenger, Star Trek, and The White Ribbon are also possible nominees.

Best Director
James Cameron (Avatar)
Kathryn Bigelow (The Hurt Locker)
Quentin Tarantino (Inglourious Basterds)
Lee Daniels (Precious)
Jason Reitman (Up in the Air)

Though the DGA line-up rarely matches five-for-five with the Academy's, I don't see anybody knocking off Daniels. Blomkamp (District 9), Coens (A Serious Man), or Haneke (The White Ribbon), I guess, could, but I doubt one of them does.

Best Actor
Jeff Bridges (Crazy Heart)
George Clooney (Up in the Air)
Colin Firth (A Single Man)
Morgan Freeman (Invictus)
Jeremy Renner (The Hurt Locker)

Best Actress
Sandra Bullock (The Blind Side)
Helen Mirren (The Last Station)
Carey Mulligan (An Education)
Gabourey Sidibe (Precious)
Meryl Streep (Julie & Julia)

These leading categories are basically set in stone, unless someone dethrones Mirren (not gonna happen). Now the supporting categories are ripe for upsets...

Best Supporting Actor
Matt Damon (Invictus)
Woody Harrelson (The Messenger)
Christopher Plummer (The Last Station)
Stanley Tucci (The Lovely Bones)
Christoph Waltz (Inglourious Basterds)

Aside from Waltz and Harrelson, this category is open. Because Waltz will receive nearly all the #1 votes, which are needed to even be considered for a nomination, surprises can happen. See 2007, Lead Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis undoubtedly received 70%+ of the #1 rankings, which allowed Tommy Lee Jones to slip in. Or 2008, Supporting Actor: Heath Ledger must have earned a staggering amount of #1 votes, allowing a performance with a small group of passionate supporters (Michael Shannon in Revolutionary Road) to surprise. McKay (Me & Orson Welles), Molina (An Education), Mackie (The Hurt Locker), and even Baldwin (It's Complicated) all fit the bill, but none of them seems to have enough support. Can Plummer really be snubbed again? Will Tucci split the vote, even though all the precursors acknowledged him for The Lovely Bones? Despite being sure I'll be wrong, I'll be boring and predict the SAG and GG line-ups.

Best Supporting Actress
Vera Farmiga (Up in the Air)
Anna Kendrick (Up in the Air)
Mo'Nique (Precious)
Julianne Moore (A Single Man)
Samantha Morton (The Messenger)

I expect the first four to be nominated quite easily; the last spot is tricky. Other awards shows mostly recognized Cruz (Nine), but Cotillard is widely considered to be superior. Against Cotillard is that she has been campaigned for the lead category, where she has no chance of being nominated after Nine's failure, both critically and commercially. Laurent (Basterds) was switched from lead to supporting to lead to supporting and is now competing with her SAG-nominated co-star, Kruger, who is very much in sixth place. However, I expect Morton (Messenger) will pull off another surprise nomination, thanks to passionate supporters.

Best Original Screenplay
(500) Days of Summer
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
A Serious Man
Up

The weak link here is Up, but Pixar has a winning streak with nominations in this category. The Hangover (dear god) and The White Ribbon could shock.

Best Adapted Screenplay
District 9
An Education
Fantastic Mr. Fox
Precious
Up in the Air

Either FMF or Crazy Heart takes the last spot; I expect Anderson & Baumbach's script to have more enthusiastic supporters.

domino harvey wrote:Anyone wanna throw down on some predix in advance on Tuesday's nominations?

I haven't paid nearly as much attention as usual this year, but what the hell. Predicted winners in blue.

Best Picture
Avatar
An Education
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Invictus
Precious
A Serious Man
Star Trek
Up
Up in the Air
Possible Spoiler: District 9

Best Director
Kathryn Bigelow (The Hurt Locker)
James Cameron (Avatar)
Lee Daniels (Precious)
Jason Reitman (Up in the Air)
Quentin Tarantino (Inglourious Basterds)
Possible Spoiler: Clint Eastwood (Invictus) - I wouldn't put it past them!

Best Actor
Jeff Bridges (Crazy Heart)
George Clooney (Up in the Air)
Colin Firth (A Single Man)
Morgan Freeman (Invictus)
Jeremy Renner (The Hurt Locker)
Possible Spoiler: Viggo Mortenson (The Road)

Best Actress
Emily Blunt (The Young Victoria)
Sandra Bullock (The Blind Side)
Carey Mulligan (An Education)
Gabourey Sidibe (Precious)
Meryl Streep (Julie & Julia)
Possible Spoiler: Helen Mirren (The Last Station)

Best Supporting Actor
Woody Harrelson (The Messenger)
Alfred Molina (An Education)
Christopher Plummer (The Last Station)
Stanley Tucci (The Lovely Bones)
Christoph Waltz (Inglourious Basterds)
Possible Spoiler: Christian McKay (Me and Orson Welles)

Best Supporting Actress
Penelope Cruz (Nine)
Vera Farmiga (Up in the Air)
Anna Kendrick (Up in the Air)
Melanie Laurent (Inglourious Basterds)
Mo'nique (Precious)
Possible Spoiler: Julianne Moore (A Single Man)

Best Original Screenplay
Mark Boal (The Hurt Locker)
Joel Coen and Ethan Coen (A Serious Man)
Scott Neustadter and Michael H. Weber (500 Days of Summer)
Bob Peterson and Pete Docter (Up)
Quentin Tarantino (Inglourious Basterds)
Possible Spoiler: Michael Haneke (The White Ribbon)

Best Adapted Screenplay
Scott Cooper (Crazy Heart)
Nora Ephron (Julie & Julia)
Geoffrey Fletcher (Precious)
Nick Hornby (An Education)
Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner (Up in the Air)
Possible Spoiler: Armando Iannucci et. al. (In the Loop)

Best Picture
An Education
Avatar
District 9
500 Days of Summer
The Hurt Locker
Inglorious Basterds
Invictus
Precious
Up
Up in the Air
(I feel like something absolutely insane is going to make the cut though, something completely beyond the realm of prediction)

Best Director
Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
James Cameron, Avatar
Clint Eastwood, Invictus
Jason Reitman, Up in the Air
Quentin Tarantino, Inglorious Basterds

Best Actor
Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart
George Clooney, Up in the Air
Joseph Gordon-Levitt, 500 Days of Summer
Colin Firth, A Single Man
Morgan Freeman, Invictus

Best Actress
Sandra Bullock, the Blind Side
Marion Cottillard, Nine
Carey Mulligan, An Education
Gabourey Sidibe, Precious
Meryl Streep, Julie and Julia

Best Supporting Actor
Matt Damon, Invictus
Woody Harrelson, the Messenger
Alfred Molina, An Education
Christopher Plummer, the Last Station
Christoph Waltz, Inglorious Basterds

Best Supporting Actress
Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air
Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air
Diane Kruger, Inglorious Basterds
Mo'Nique, Precious
Julianne Moore, A Single Man
(There's gonna be a complete left-field pick here too, count on it)

Best Picture
Avatar
The Blind Side <-- Here is our absolutely insane best pic. nominee.
Crazy Heart
An Education
The Hurt Locker
Inglorious Basterds
Precious
A Serious Man
Up
Up in the Air

Best Director
Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
James Cameron, Avatar
Lee Daniels, Precious
Jason Reitman, Up in the Air
Quentin Tarantino, Inglorious Basterds

Best Actor
Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart
George Clooney, Up in the Air
Colin Firth, A Single Man
Morgan Freeman, Invictus
Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker

Best Actress
Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side
Abbie Cornish, Bright Star <-- Wishful thinking, I know.
Carey Mulligan, An Education
Gabourey Sidibe, Precious
Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia

Best Supporting Actor
Woody Harrelson, The Messenger
Anthony Mackie, The Hurt Locker
Alfred Molina, An Education
Christopher Plummer, The Last Station
Christoph Waltz, Inglorious Basterds

Best Supporting Actress
Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air
Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air
Melanie Laurent, Inglorious Basterds
Mo'Nique, Precious
Julianne Moore, A Single Man

Best Original Screenplay
(500) Days of Summer
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Up
A Serious Man

Best Adapted Screenplay
District 9
An Education
Julia & Julia
Precious
Up in the Air

Also, I'd like to mention what's shaping up to be my favorite category this year, just because it's so competitive -- Best Costume Design!

IMO, there are eight contenders for the award, and I think it's almost impossible to narrow it down to five predicted nominees:

Bright Star
Coco Before Chanel
An Education
Inglourious Basterds
Julie & Julia
Nine
Sherlock Holmes
The Young Victoria

I'd guess Bright Star, Basterds, Nine, Sherlock Holmes, and The Young Victoria, but who knows? Is Nine so toxic that even the costume designers' branch will avoid it? I feel stupid not predicting a movie about Coco Chanel.

Best Picture
Avatar
Crazy Heart
District 9
The Hangover
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Precious
Star Trek
Up
Up in the Air

Best Director
James Cameron Avatar
Kathryn Bigelow The Hurt Locker
Quentin Tarantino Inglourious Basterds
Jason Reitman Up in the Air
Michael Haneke The White Ribbon

Best Actor
Jeff Bridges Crazy Heart
George Clooney Up in the Air
Colin Firth A Single Man
Morgan Freeman Invictus
Jeremy Renner The Hurt Locker

Best Actress
Sandra Bullock The Blind Side
Helen Mirren Last Station
Carey Mulligan An Education
Gabourey Sidibe Precious
Meryl Streep Julie & Julia

Best Supporting Actor
Woody Harrelson The Messenger
Anthony Mackie The Hurt Locker
Christopher Plummer The Last Station
Stanley Tucci The Lovely Bones
Christoph Waltz Inglourious Basterds

Best Supporting Actress
Vera Farmiga Up in the Air
Anna Kendrick Up in the Air
Melanie Laurent Inglourious Basterds
Mo'Nique Precious
Samantha Morton The Messenger

Best Original Screenplay
(500) Days of Summer
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
A Serious Man
Up

Best Adapted Screenplay
Crazy Heart
District 9
Fantastic Mr. Fox
Precious
Up in the Air

lacritfan wrote:Best Director
Michael Haneke The White Ribbon

I doubt Haneke will get a director nod, White Ribbon will just get stuck with a Best Foreign Pic and that'll be the end of it.

Murdoch wrote:

lacritfan wrote:Best Director
Michael Haneke The White Ribbon

I doubt Haneke will get a director nod

Probably, but the directors tend to throw curve every once in awhile so I figure either Hanake or the guy who directed Crazy Heart, something bizarre.

Murdoch wrote:White Ribbon will just get stuck with a Best Foreign Pic and that'll be the end of it.

I think it has a fair chance at a cinematography nom also.

Best Film

Avatar
The Hurt Locker
Up in the Air
Inglourious Basterds
Precious
An Education
Star Trek
The Hangover
District 9
Up


Best Director

Kathryn Bigelow – The Hurt Locker
James Cameron - Avatar
Lee Daniels - Precious
Jason Reitman – Up in the Air
Quentin Tarantino – Inglourious Basterds


Best Actor

Jeff Bridges – Crazy Heart
George Clooney – Up in the Air
Colin Firth – A Single Man
Morgan Freeman - Invictus
Jeremy Renner – Hurt Locker


Best Actress

Sandra Bullock – Blind Side
Helen Mirren – Last Train
Carey Mulligan – An Education
Gabourey Sidibe - Precious
Meryl Streep – Julie and Julia

Best Supporting Actor

Matt Damon - Invictus
Woody Harrelson – The Messenger
Christopher Plummer – The Last Train
Stanley Tucci – The Lovely Bones
Christoph Waltz – Inglourious Basterds

Best Supporting Actress

Vera Farmiga – Up in the Air
Anna Kendrick – Up in the Air
Melanie Laurent – Inglourious Basterds
Mo’Nique - Precious
Julianne Moore – A Single Man

Fairly conservative choices there - although like Domino I wouldn't be surprised at a couple of wtf nominees. Zachary Quinto as Supporting Actor perhaps?

I've gone for Laurent over Kruger, but mainly as a personal preference - either (or both) could get in. There's also perhaps 1 too many big hits in the Film category - pushing out Invictus and [500] Days - but there you go. By my reckoning 90 mins to go before it starts...

Are they actually going to be allowed to say "bastards" (or rather Basterds) live on air?

Oh well - I didn't do badly!

No Trek or Hangover - Blind Side and Serious Man instead - and Cruz and Gyllenhaal rather than Laurent and Moore. Everything else spot on.

Best I've ever done I think...

Now just to see the full nominations list.

Pleasantly surprised to see District 9 and Up in the best picture category. By the way, we should do an Oscar pool just for the hell of it. I think Yahoo has a good format for that.

Actor in a Leading Role

Jeff Bridges in “Crazy Heart”
George Clooney in “Up in the Air”
Colin Firth in “A Single Man”
Morgan Freeman in “Invictus”
Jeremy Renner in “The Hurt Locker”

Actor in a Supporting Role

Matt Damon in “Invictus”
Woody Harrelson in “The Messenger”
Christopher Plummer in “The Last Station”
Stanley Tucci in “The Lovely Bones”
Christoph Waltz in “Inglourious Basterds”

Actress in a Leading Role

Sandra Bullock in “The Blind Side”
Helen Mirren in “The Last Station”
Carey Mulligan in “An Education”
Gabourey Sidibe in “Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire”
Meryl Streep in “Julie & Julia”

Actress in a Supporting Role

Penélope Cruz in “Nine”
Vera Farmiga in “Up in the Air”
Maggie Gyllenhaal in “Crazy Heart”
Anna Kendrick in “Up in the Air”
Mo’Nique in “Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire”

Animated Feature Film

“Coraline” Henry Selick
“Fantastic Mr. Fox” Wes Anderson
“The Princess and the Frog” John Musker and Ron Clements
“The Secret of Kells” Tomm Moore
“Up” Pete Docter

Art Direction

“Avatar” Art Direction: Rick Carter and Robert Stromberg; Set Decoration: Kim Sinclair
“The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus” Art Direction: Dave Warren and Anastasia Masaro; Set Decoration: Caroline Smith
“Nine” Art Direction: John Myhre; Set Decoration: Gordon Sim
“Sherlock Holmes” Art Direction: Sarah Greenwood; Set Decoration: Katie Spencer
“The Young Victoria” Art Direction: Patrice Vermette; Set Decoration: Maggie Gray

Cinematography

“Avatar” Mauro Fiore
“Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince” Bruno Delbonnel
“The Hurt Locker” Barry Ackroyd
“Inglourious Basterds” Robert Richardson
“The White Ribbon” Christian Berger

Costume Design

“Bright Star” Janet Patterson
“Coco before Chanel” Catherine Leterrier
“The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus” Monique Prudhomme
“Nine” Colleen Atwood
“The Young Victoria” Sandy Powell

Directing

“Avatar” James Cameron
“The Hurt Locker” Kathryn Bigelow
“Inglourious Basterds” Quentin Tarantino
“Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire” Lee Daniels
“Up in the Air” Jason Reitman

Documentary (Feature)

“Burma VJ” Anders Østergaard and Lise Lense-Møller
“The Cove” Nominees to be determined
“Food, Inc.” Robert Kenner and Elise Pearlstein
“The Most Dangerous Man in America: Daniel Ellsberg and the Pentagon Papers” Judith Ehrlich and Rick Goldsmith
“Which Way Home” Rebecca Cammisa

Documentary (Short Subject)

“China’s Unnatural Disaster: The Tears of Sichuan Province” Jon Alpert and Matthew O’Neill
“The Last Campaign of Governor Booth Gardner” Daniel Junge and Henry Ansbacher
“The Last Truck: Closing of a GM Plant” Steven Bognar and Julia Reichert
“Music by Prudence” Roger Ross Williams and Elinor Burkett
“Rabbit à la Berlin” Bartek Konopka and Anna Wydra

Film Editing

“Avatar” Stephen Rivkin, John Refoua and James Cameron
“District 9” Julian Clarke
“The Hurt Locker” Bob Murawski and Chris Innis
“Inglourious Basterds” Sally Menke
“Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire” Joe Klotz

Foreign Language Film

“Ajami” Israel
“El Secreto de Sus Ojos” Argentina
“The Milk of Sorrow” Peru
“Un Prophète” France
“The White Ribbon” Germany

Makeup

“Il Divo” Aldo Signoretti and Vittorio Sodano
“Star Trek” Barney Burman, Mindy Hall and Joel Harlow
“The Young Victoria” Jon Henry Gordon and Jenny Shircore

Music (Original Score)

“Avatar” James Horner
“Fantastic Mr. Fox” Alexandre Desplat
“The Hurt Locker” Marco Beltrami and Buck Sanders
“Sherlock Holmes” Hans Zimmer
“Up” Michael Giacchino

Music (Original Song)

“Almost There” from “The Princess and the Frog” Music and Lyric by Randy Newman
“Down in New Orleans” from “The Princess and the Frog” Music and Lyric by Randy Newman
“Loin de Paname” from “Paris 36” Music by Reinhardt Wagner Lyric by Frank Thomas
“Take It All” from “Nine” Music and Lyric by Maury Yeston
“The Weary Kind (Theme from Crazy Heart)” from “Crazy Heart” Music and Lyric by Ryan Bingham and T Bone Burnett

Best Picture

“Avatar” James Cameron and Jon Landau, Producers
“The Blind Side” Nominees to be determined
“District 9” Peter Jackson and Carolynne Cunningham, Producers
“An Education” Finola Dwyer and Amanda Posey, Producers
“The Hurt Locker” Nominees to be determined
“Inglourious Basterds” Lawrence Bender, Producer
“Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire” Lee Daniels, Sarah Siegel-Magness and Gary Magness, Producers
“A Serious Man” Joel Coen and Ethan Coen, Producers
“Up” Jonas Rivera, Producer
“Up in the Air” Daniel Dubiecki, Ivan Reitman and Jason Reitman, Producers

Short Film (Animated)

“French Roast” Fabrice O. Joubert
“Granny O’Grimm’s Sleeping Beauty” Nicky Phelan and Darragh O’Connell
“The Lady and the Reaper (La Dama y la Muerte)” Javier Recio Gracia
“Logorama” Nicolas Schmerkin
“A Matter of Loaf and Death” Nick Park

Short Film (Live Action)

“The Door” Juanita Wilson and James Flynn
“Instead of Abracadabra” Patrik Eklund and Mathias Fjellström
“Kavi” Gregg Helvey
“Miracle Fish” Luke Doolan and Drew Bailey
“The New Tenants” Joachim Back and Tivi Magnusson

Sound Editing

“Avatar” Christopher Boyes and Gwendolyn Yates Whittle
“The Hurt Locker” Paul N.J. Ottosson
“Inglourious Basterds” Wylie Stateman
“Star Trek” Mark Stoeckinger and Alan Rankin
“Up” Michael Silvers and Tom Myers

Sound Mixing

“Avatar” Christopher Boyes, Gary Summers, Andy Nelson and Tony Johnson
“The Hurt Locker” Paul N.J. Ottosson and Ray Beckett
“Inglourious Basterds” Michael Minkler, Tony Lamberti and Mark Ulano
“Star Trek” Anna Behlmer, Andy Nelson and Peter J. Devlin
“Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen” Greg P. Russell, Gary Summers and Geoffrey Patterson

Visual Effects

“Avatar” Joe Letteri, Stephen Rosenbaum, Richard Baneham and Andrew R. Jones
“District 9” Dan Kaufman, Peter Muyzers, Robert Habros and Matt Aitken
“Star Trek” Roger Guyett, Russell Earl, Paul Kavanagh and Burt Dalton

Writing (Adapted Screenplay)

“District 9” Written by Neill Blomkamp and Terri Tatchell
“An Education” Screenplay by Nick Hornby
“In the Loop” Screenplay by Jesse Armstrong, Simon Blackwell, Armando Iannucci, Tony Roche
“Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire” Screenplay by Geoffrey Fletcher
“Up in the Air” Screenplay by Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner

Writing (Original Screenplay)

“The Hurt Locker” Written by Mark Boal
“Inglourious Basterds” Written by Quentin Tarantino
“The Messenger” Written by Alessandro Camon & Oren Moverman
“A Serious Man” Written by Joel Coen & Ethan Coen
“Up” Screenplay by Bob Peterson, Pete Docter, Story by Pete Docter, Bob Peterson, Tom McCarthy

Anna Kendrick? give me a break. she was so incredibly boring. and Abel Korzeniowski's score for A Single Man deserved a nomination.

Plummer and Mirren are usually onscreen together in The Last Station but he gets a supporting slot and she gets a lead nom...um, okay.

And where the hell is The Beaches of Agnes?

tavernier wrote:And where the hell is The Beaches of Agnes?

!!that's what I'm wondering!!

Siiiiiiiiiiiii, Claudia va a Hollywood con La teta asustada.
Imagine our happiness and nervious.

Meh, who really wants to see Varda lose to the dolphin guy? Better to avoid that particular brand of agony all together.

zachhh wrote:Anna Kendrick? give me a break. she was so incredibly boring. and Abel Korzeniowski's score for A Single Man deserved a nomination.

There are a lot bigger fish to fry than Anna Kendrick's nomination. Not only was she virtually guaranteed to be nominated, but there are terrible nominations all over this list, why single out one of the few good ones?

Here's a question: when's the last time a film was shut out of the screenplay and acting categories and still won Best Picture? I think Avatar is officially doomed.

Another observation: with all the love for District 9, it's a shame to see the lead actor not nominated. I know it's still a strong group, but that would've been a nice surprise.

The Secret of Kells, distributed by our very own davebert, managed to score a Best Animated Feature nod alongside Up, The Fantastic Mr. Fox, Coraline, and The Princess and the Frog. Congratulations, Dave. Quite an accomplishment!

LQ wrote:

tavernier wrote:And where the hell is The Beaches of Agnes?

!! that's what I'm wondering!!

Given the subject matter of the nominated documentaries, I'd say the nominating committee didn't feel Beaches of Agnes fit the bill of dealing with social injustice and corporate greed. Also because they're fucking assholes.

I hope Food Inc. wins the documentary award.

Blindside? Is that the inspirational story of the first all-Black Ping-Pong team?

I read the summary on the back of the book. It was something akin to: He was a poor black youth who couldn't read or write until a white evangelical family took him in and he learned to play football.