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I wasn't aware that Black Swan was inelligible, but that makes sense. I've heard rumors that Inception may be inelligible as well. I've fixed my original post to remove Black Swan. I'm predicting 127 Hours now. I was predicting that one originally, but replaced with Alice, which I think has a shot simply because the Academy often includes something a little unexpected in this category.

domino harvey wrote:My predix exactly, believe it or not. Wiggle room: Kunis and Wahlberg

My gut tells me that Ryan Gosling might make it over Wahlberg, but The Fighter has been picking up momentum lately, so I think Wahlberg could ride those coat tails, even if he has the least likely chance of winning.

Kunis seems pretty set to me. I thought if any of my Supporting Actress predictions don't make it, it will be Amy Adams, but I'm keeping her in for now for the same reasons as Wahlberg. The only other actress on my radar in this category is Jacki Weaver, but her film seems too small and obscure (and Australian) for the Academy to recognize.

Nobody thinks Blue Valentine's got a shot at Best Original Screenplay? I wonder why all the publications I've read also think this? The quality of the screenplay or other reasons?

Other reasons. Remember awards shows=(politics+popularity)/difficulty

Yeah, but it seems like Original Screenplay usually gives more love to breakthrough indy films and writers like this in comparison to some of the other more prestigious awards. I feel like Blue Valentine fits this mold pretty well, even if it is brasher than the Academy would prefer.

Feego wrote:Kunis seems pretty set to me. I thought if any of my Supporting Actress predictions don't make it, it will be Amy Adams, but I'm keeping her in for now for the same reasons as Wahlberg.

Like Geoffrey Rush in The King's Speech, I don't really remember particularly noticing Amy Adams' performance. Also like Rush, her character in general seemed strained and hastily developed, so perhaps I was too distracted by these issues to notice her.

The reason most people feel they are shoo-ins is that the Academy tends to nominate past nominees/winners and here are two likable past-nominees in high-profile films, so their nominations are a given. Wins are another question, of course

Also, if you fuck with Amy Adams, Domino will cut you.

For the first time ever, I regret not watching the Golden Globes because Ricky Gervais was actually funny hosting last night, and he made no effort to veil his contempt for the entire enterprise. Here's a compilation of his best bits for anyone who missed it.

I'm starting to think we all might be missing a big upset: the Ghost Writer. It's cleaning up at overseas award shows and the Academy loves Polanski (Tess, Chinatown, and the Pianist all nomed for Best Pic/Director), it could happen...

They might not be loving him quite as much these days.

All of his noms were post-scandal, though

I know that, but the scandal was very much in the public consciousness last year.

Highway 61 wrote:For the first time ever, I regret not watching the Golden Globes because Ricky Gervais was actually funny hosting last night, and he made no effort to veil his contempt for the entire enterprise. Here's a compilation of his best bits for anyone who missed it.

That compilation is from last year's ceremony. Here's the new one.

Highway 61 wrote:For the first time ever, I regret not watching the Golden Globes because Ricky Gervais was actually funny hosting last night, and he made no effort to veil his contempt for the entire enterprise. Here's a compilation of his best bits for anyone who missed it.

uhm...that's a sample of his great work a year ago.

I really wish they would let him host the Grammys.

For the record, Golden Globe winners :

Best Picture (Drama) - The Social Network
Best Actress (Drama) - Natalie Portman – Black Swan
Best Actor (Drama) - Colin Firth – The King's Speech
Best Picture (Comedy/Musical) - The Kids Are All Right
Best Actress (Comedy/Musical) - Annette Bening – The Kids Are All Right
Best Actor (Comedy/Musical) - Paul Giamatti – Barney's Version
Best Supporting Actress - Melissa Leo – The Fighter
Best Supporting Actor - Christian Bale – The Fighter
Best Director - David Fincher – The Social Network
Best Screenplay - Aaron Sorkin - The Social Network
Best Animated Film - Toy Story 3
Best Foreign Language Film - In A Better World (Denmark)
Best Original Score - Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross - The Social Network
Best Original Song - "You Haven't Seen The Last Of Me" – Burlesque

Gervais has maybe been banned from the Globes

I only saw clips but I regret not watching now, seeing the Hollywood elite all pissy over some potshots would've been worth sitting through,

James Mills wrote:Nobody thinks Blue Valentine's got a shot at Best Original Screenplay? I wonder why all the publications I've read also think this? The quality of the screenplay or other reasons?

As we said in the official thread, it's certainly deserving. But I think it's the easiest thing to overlook about a film that's going to be overlooked anyway.

I don't even typically like Gervais and I found that to be really funny. What was really striking to me though was Carell's reaction to the cash cow comment.

This is Jon Stewart at the Oscars all over again. Some celebrities need a major dose of reality.

While there was a screenplay written for Blue Valentine, during shooting Derek chose to let the actors improvise most of their blocking and dialog. (I remember reading this in the interviews with Michelle and Derek published on indiewire) Don't know how that impacts potential nomininations for writing...

Murdoch wrote:Gervais has maybe been banned from the Globes

I only saw clips but I regret not watching now, seeing the Hollywood elite all pissy over some potshots would've been worth sitting through,

"Ricky will not be invited back to host the show next year, for sure," a member of the HFPA tells me, adding that Gervais' relentlessly mean shtick could have even larger consequences. "For sure any movie he makes he can forget about getting nominated.

No! How will his career survive without the megawatt power of the Golden Globes?

HistoryProf wrote:

Highway 61 wrote:For the first time ever, I regret not watching the Golden Globes because Ricky Gervais was actually funny hosting last night, and he made no effort to veil his contempt for the entire enterprise. Here's a compilation of his best bits for anyone who missed it.

uhm...that's a sample of his great work a year ago.

Oh jeez. Sorry. I should have double checked the link that was forwarded to me.

Edit: I can't believe the Hollywood Foreign Press actually issued that comment. They're appalled at Gervais's irreverence, but I can recall Elizabeth Taylor's drunken slurring of "Gladiator!" appearing on their ads for three or four years straight. Plus, as Domino mentions, they have no problem with post-rape Polanski.

Kirkinson wrote:Here's the new one.

I love how worried Buscemi looks when Gervais mentions Boardwalk Empire.

ianungstad wrote:While there was a screenplay written for Blue Valentine, during shooting Derek chose to let the actors improvise most of their blocking and dialog. (I remember reading this in the interviews with Michelle and Derek published on indiewire) Don't know how that impacts potential nomininations for writing...

I doubt the public knowledge of Blue Valentine being largely or partially improvised will make any difference seeing as this practice hasn't prevented numerous Mike Leigh films for getting nominated for Best Original Screenplay.

Murdoch wrote:Gervais has maybe been banned from the Globes

I only saw clips but I regret not watching now, seeing the Hollywood elite all pissy over some potshots would've been worth sitting through,

nothing like a bit of hyperbole to stir the pot. I thought it was pretty clear that the only people who had a problem with any of the jokes have huge sticks up their asses. who cares if Jolie is incapable of laughing at herself? and this:

The not-so-subtle dig at Tom Cruise and John Travolta (we can presume) was met with boos and groans.

is flat out not true...it was met with laughter and "ooooooooh"s - as in "oh man, i can't believe he went there!" As for Carell, watch the first minute of the clip provided for last year to see their ongoing schtick over the Office.

so a bunch of hollywood hangabouts got butthurt someone made fun of them. big whoop.