criterionforum.org

The Narrator Returns wrote: Mon Feb 10, 2025 6:37 pm It does seem strange but also the movie's big turn hinges on her being forced into the passenger's seat for an hour. I assume the awards bodies were a lot more convinced by the ending's return to her than I was, but it's surprisingly easy to come out of it with her not as the #1 thing about it. Personally, I think the Academy's most puzzling error with where it will choose to reward vs. not reward it is them not nominating Toros.

Mickey Madison is in every scene of the Anora, unlike Moore and Perez. Two actresses play the lead character in The Substance with Moore being off screen for periods, while Karla Sofía Gascón isn't even the lead of her movie.

Screen time comparisons could not interest me less as a metric for awards worthiness, I’m just explaining why I think someone could watch it and love it and still not feel compelled to vote for Madison when many of those scenes, my favorites in the movie by far, are her silently getting dragged across New York. And more to the point, even the scenes where she is the star were let down for me by Baker not seeming to have a handle on her character. But you’re right(?), Margaret Qualley should absolutely be getting rewarded if Demi Moore is.

However, with the shift in narrative, Madison gives voters a viable alternative to Moore if they don't want to reward her with more than a nom (and this is the same group that denied Jennifer Lopez a nomination for a film pundits predicted she would WIN for just a few years ago, so they still do gate their community a bit). I don't really think Torres factors in at all, to be honest, because if voters want an alt, there's now a more visible choice that prob aligns with what they're voting for Best Picture

The Narrator Returns wrote: Mon Feb 10, 2025 8:01 pm Screen time comparisons could not interest me less as a metric for awards worthiness, I’m just explaining why I think someone could watch it and love it and still not feel compelled to vote for Madison when many of those scenes, my favorites in the movie by far, are her silently getting dragged across New York. And more to the point, even the scenes where she is the star were let down for me by Baker not seeming to have a handle on her character. But you’re right(?), Margaret Qualley should absolutely be getting rewarded if Demi Moore is.

I didn't appeal to your interests. I was just pointing out that you could find even better reasons not to vote for the other two top contenders if your reasoning is that there's a section of Anora where Madison isn't the sole focus.

Torres is out because foreign language performances always have a harder time and the movie itself isn't among the top contenders. Erivo gets another shot at this next year.

On a Supporting Actress side note, it's always unfair when they nominate a lead performance, they all must know they don't stand a chance. But hey, it's the Oscars.

Anora and Nickel Boys won Original and Adapted Screenplay awards at the WGA tonight, though prognosticators should note that, since only films made within the WGA's collective bargaining agreement were eligible, the majority of contenders this year (The Brutalist, Conclave, I'm Still Here, Emilia Perez, Sing Sing, The Substance) were absent from the running, with also-rans and wackadoo filler slots in their place (Challengers, Civil War, Hit Man, My Old Ass)

Madison and Brody win at BAFTA, Conclave wins Best Pic and Corbet Best Director

Well, that’s a perfectly confusing set of winners. Feels like we’re flying blind moreso than usual this year.

Kinda wanna be a BAFTA Believer now

Were it 20 years ago, Conclave would be such an easy lock for Picture, but at this point I still think it'll be one of the non-Audiard festival darlings

Best Screenplay also went in an upset to Eisenberg, though I actually have had him winning the Oscar in my GoldDerby predix for months, so this is just vindication for me for something that was at like 8% odds last I looked

Is anyone going to run an Oscar predicting competition on the board?

I will, was just looking for more expressed interest than from one other member

I'm really not surprised that Conclave won Best Picture, BAFTA is probably the most conservative of the major awards. I'm also not surprised that Demi Moore didn't win, the old dears couldn't give a major award to a body horror film (although I'm personally very happy for Madison).

therewillbeblus wrote: Mon Feb 17, 2025 2:20 pm I will, was just looking for more expressed interest than from one other member

Count me in, if it helps make the decision.

Cool, a few people have gotten back to me, so we're good to go. We'll do it the same as last year:

Winners
5 POINTS: Picture, Director, All Acting Categories, Screenplays

3 POINTS: International Feature, Cinematography, Animated Feature, Documentary Feature, Editing, Sound, Costume, Makeup/Hair, Score, Production Design, Visual Effects

2 POINTS: Song, Animated Short, Documentary Short, Live Action Short

Please make sure you have your predictions for each category posted in this thread (or PM'd to me, if you wanna keep it like a secret) by day of ceremony, so before 5pm Sunday March 2

[The winner will be named after the ceremony, and should have a film ready to ask the participating forum members to see sometime within the week following the awards show. The losing participating members can watch and write anything about the film at your convenience over the next year. Or not, I just think this is a fun prize.]

The Curious Sofa wrote: Mon Feb 17, 2025 3:02 pm I'm really not surprised that Conclave won Best Picture, BAFTA is probably the most conservative of the major awards. I'm also not surprised that Demi Moore didn't win, the old dears couldn't give a major award to a body horror film (although I'm personally very happy for Madison).

Brit films (on paper) will always do better at the BAFTAs so I wouldn't read much into it.

How British is Conclave, a US/UK co-production filmed in Italy and directed by a German? (I guess the writer is British.) The Substance, The Brutalist, and Wicked all have as much claim to being British films, if not more

In terms of Academy Awards, I have a 50/50 prediction that Anora will win Best Picture (which would mean the film would join the league of Parasite (alongside The Lost Weekend and Marty) winning both the Palme D'Or and Best Picture at the Oscars, and goes well with it being the first American film to win the Palme D'Or in more than twelve years)

I’ll take a guess and probably get the least right. I’ll be weirdly proud if that happens.

Spoiler

BP
Anora

Director
Baker

Leading Actress
Madison

Leading Actor
Brody

Supporting Actor
Culkin

Supporting Actress
Saldana

International Film
Flow

Original Screenplay
Eisenberg

Adapted screenplay
Conclave

Editing
Baker

Cinematography
Fraser

Score
Wicked

Song
El Mal

Production Design
Conclave

Costume Design
Wicked

Makeup/ Hair
Wicked

Sound Mixing
A Complete Unknown

Visual Effects
Kingdom of the Planet

Animated Feature
Wild Robot

Animated Short
Yuck

Documentary
Sugarcane

Documentary Short
I Am Ready Warden

LA Short
Anuja

The SAG Awards threw out more curveballs, a shutout of Anora in favor of Demi Moore and Conclave in Ensemble, and Timothee Chalamet winning Actor.

My predictions:

Spoiler

Picture: Anora
Director: Sean Baker
Actor: Adrien Brody
Actress: Demi Moore
Supporting Actor: Kieran Culkin
Support Actress: Zoe Saldana
International Film: I'm Still Here
Original Screenplay: A Real Pain
Adapted Screenplay: Conclave
Editing: Conclave
Cinematography: Nosferatu
Score: Wicked
Song: Never Too Late
Production Design:
Costume Design: Wicked
Hair/Make-up: The Substance
Sound Mixing: A Complete Unknown
Visual Effects: Dune 2
Animated Feature: The Wild Robot
Animated Short: Yuck
Documentary: Black Box Diaries
Documentary Short: I Am Ready Warden
Live Action Short: Anuja

Aunt Peg wrote: Mon Feb 24, 2025 6:15 am My predictions:

Spoiler

Picture: Anora
Director: Sean Baker
Actor: Adrien Brody
Actress: Demi Moore
Supporting Actor: Kieran Culkin
Support Actress: Zoe Saldana
International Film: I'm Still Here
Original Screenplay: A Real Pain
Adapted Screenplay: Conclave
Editing: Conclave
Cinematography: Nosferatu
Score: Wicked
Song: Never Too Late
Production Design:
Costume Design: Wicked
Hair/Make-up: The Substance
Sound Mixing: A Complete Unknown
Visual Effects: Dune 2
Animated Feature: The Wild Robot
Animated Short: Yuck
Documentary: Black Box Diaries
Documentary Short: I Am Ready Warden
Live Action Short: Anuja

Ditto

I wish Flow would get animated feature, though. DreamWorks has promoted the shit out of Wild Robot

The Narrator Returns wrote: Mon Feb 24, 2025 5:04 am The SAG Awards threw out more curveballs, a shutout of Anora in favor of Demi Moore and Conclave in Ensemble, and Timothee Chalamet winning Actor.

I was actually watching The Substance and wondering when the SAG Awards were on, thinking that there was no way Moore was going to win. Changing my tune from what I said upthread, I think Mikey Madison is going to win the Oscar. I can't see most of the senior Academy voters making it past the 30-minute mark of The Substance once Sue...emerges.

beamish14 wrote: Mon Feb 24, 2025 6:33 am

Aunt Peg wrote: Mon Feb 24, 2025 6:15 am My predictions:

Spoiler

Picture: Anora
Director: Sean Baker
Actor: Adrien Brody
Actress: Demi Moore
Supporting Actor: Kieran Culkin
Support Actress: Zoe Saldana
International Film: I'm Still Here
Original Screenplay: A Real Pain
Adapted Screenplay: Conclave
Editing: Conclave
Cinematography: Nosferatu
Score: Wicked
Song: Never Too Late
Production Design:
Costume Design: Wicked
Hair/Make-up: The Substance
Sound Mixing: A Complete Unknown
Visual Effects: Dune 2
Animated Feature: The Wild Robot
Animated Short: Yuck
Documentary: Black Box Diaries
Documentary Short: I Am Ready Warden
Live Action Short: Anuja

Ditto

I wish Flow would get animated feature, though. DreamWorks has promoted the shit out of Wild Robot

I haven't seen Flow yet but was rather underwhelmed by Wild Robot and am looking forward to seeing Flow when it finally opens in my part of the world next month.

My mostly boring predictions:

Spoiler

BEST PICTURE
Anora

BEST DIRECTOR
Brady Corbet

BEST ACTRESS
Mikey Madison

BEST ACTOR
Adrien Brody

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Zoe Saldaña

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Kieran Culkin

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Anora

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Conclave

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
I’m Still Here

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
The Wild Robot

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
No Other Land

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
The Brutalist

BEST FILM EDITING
Conclave

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Wicked

BEST HAIR AND MAKEUP
The Substance

BEST SOUND
Dune: Part Two

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Dune: Part Two

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Wicked

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
“El Mal,” Emilia Pérez

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
The Brutalist

BEST ANIMATED SHORT
Beautiful Men

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
I Am Ready, Warden

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT
The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent