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Black Hat wrote:Is that true? I don't remember Argo being a lock by any means last year. Even with that I feel that 12 Years A Slave is more of a lock for best picture than Argo was.

Like 12 Years a Slave, it had the external narrative: In an unusual move, it wasn't a lock until Affleck was unceremoniously snubbed, at which point the voters catapulted a likely winner to a sure winner. We haven't had a real surprise Best Picture winner since Crash eight years ago, and anything that isn't Gravity/12 Years/American Hustle will qualify as such-- but those are the only likely winners. But which of the three (or two, now that American Hustle's veneer has faded) will be immortalized? Both would establish Oscar history (First sci-fi, first film made by and predominately starring blacks to win). Again, I think like every other voting bloc, the Academy is terrified of being called racist and that couple with the many who genuinely liked 12 Years means Gravity will probably get screwed. Then again, remember 1995's Oscars, which was three times the mess of no clear favorites in most categories and the big awards ended up going to fucking Braveheart? So, who can say for sure what'll happen! THAT'S WHAT MAKES IT FUN

No I didn't remember 1995 but thanks for bringing my attention to it. I don't remember what else was around that year off the top of my head but what an outrageously shitty list of nominees it was that year. Leaving Las Vegas which wasn't even nominated for best picture is the only one I see at a glance that I would be remotely interested in watching again.

mfunk9786 wrote:According to Kristopher Tapley, a lot more voters have told him they picked June Squibb than expected, and she has a legitimate chance to upset the field in Supporting Actress. Should be interesting to watch that play out.

I'd be OK with any of them winning it except Lawrence, which is just too much too soon and the weakest of the performances (even though I do like her in the film). But Squibb would be amazing. I happen to think Nyong'o has a great career ahead of her with future nominations, unless she ends up on the stage more than in film, so that wouldn't disappoint me too much even if I'd vote for her.

26 of the thirty experts polled on Gold Derby have it going to Nyong'o, the other four to Lawrence, for whatever that's worth (and all 30 have Leto and Cuaron winning). I'd LOVE to see Hawkins win (I think she's better than Blanchett in the film), but I'm realistic

Unpopular criterionforum.org opinion: I love Braveheart. It's a fantastic, energetic film. It definitely is excessively romanticized narrative, but in a year with relatively weak nominations I don't see it as a surprise that it won.

captveg wrote:Unpopular criterionforum.org opinion: I love Braveheart. It's a fantastic, energetic film. It definitely is excessively romanticized narrative, but in a year with relatively weak nominations I don't see it as a surprise that it won.

Because I have a strange capacity to remember these things even though I was in middle school at the time, it was most definitely a surprise-- Apollo 13 was widely expected to win

I really thought it was well known in 1995 that Braveheart was going to win Best Picture simply because nothing else had any momentum and everyone figured Gibson was Hollywood Royalty at the time (this was before his insanity, substance abuse, and bigotry was public). I don't remember it being much of a surprise. I thought Apollo 13 had lost a lot of momentum during awards season.

domino harvey wrote:26 of the thirty experts polled on Gold Derby have it going to Nyong'o, the other four to Lawrence, for whatever that's worth (and all 30 have Leto and Cuaron winning). I'd LOVE to see Hawkins win (I think she's better than Blanchett in the film), but I'm realistic

Leto is the one I don't get. He was fine, but he was nothing compared to Fassbender or even Hill, IMO.

My memory of the 1995 awards was that Apollo 13 was perceived as being neck-and-neck with Braveheart until the nominations were revealed, with Howard being passed over and thereby killing the film's momentum (which is the opposite of what happened with Argo after Affleck was passed over, but I think it's easier psychologically for voters to vote for a Picture that doesn't have a Director nomination now that the numbers don't line up as 5-and-5).

Andre Jurieu wrote:I really thought it was well known in 1995 that Braveheart was going to win Best Picture simply because nothing else had any momentum and everyone figured Gibson was Hollywood Royalty at the time (this was before his insanity, substance abuse, and bigotry was public). I don't remember it being much of a surprise. I thought Apollo 13 had lost a lot of momentum during awards season.

This is really embarrassing myself, but I can tell you the EW Oscar issue had it in third-place out of five to take the award, and every entertainment commentator at the time were leading their stories with variations of "What a surprise sweep!" The problem was that the two most likely (and heralded as likely by everyone) winners were both denied Director noms, which has almost always rendered them non-players (Argo being the unusual recent exception) and so the Academy went to the comforting glow of an epic directed by a movie star

In any case, it certainly was an odd duck of a year. It wasn't that unusual to have one Picture/Director not match up, but to have two misalignments was far more rare in the 60-or-so years of 5-and-5 nominations.

Could be more extreme: 1954, 1955, and 1962 only had a 2/5 match!

Oscar Predictions:
Best Picture:
12 Years a Slave

Best Director:
Alfonso Cuaron - Gravity

Best Actor:
Matthew McConaughey - Dallas Buyers Club

Best Actress:
Cate Blanchett - Blue Jasmine

Best Supporting Actor:
Jared Leto - Dallas Buyers Club

Best Supporting Actress:
Lupita Nyong'o - 12 Years a Slave

Best Adapted Screenplay:
John Ridley - 12 Years a Slave

Best Original Screenplay:
Spike Jonze - Her

Best Foreign Language Film:
The Great Beauty

Best Cinematography:
Emmanuel Lubezki - Gravity

Best Film Editing:
Alfonso Cuarón and Mark Sanger - Gravity

Best Sound Editing:
Gravity

Best Sound Mixing:
Gravity

Best Production Design:
The Great Gatsby

Best Visual Effects:
Gravity

Best Original Score:
Steven Price - Gravity

Best Original Song:
"Let It Snow" - Frozen

Best Costume Design:
The Great Gatsby

Best Makeup:
Dallas Buyers Club

Best Animated Feature Film:
Frozen

Best Documentary:
The Act of Killing

criterion10 wrote:Best Original Song:
"Let It Snow" - Frozen

And the award for Best Typo goes to...

The Narrator Returns wrote:And the award for Best Typo goes to...

Whoops! That's what happens when I don't proofread.

I'm thinking about editing it to its proper title, but for some reason, I kinda like the way that it looks... So, eff it.

domino harvey wrote:...We haven't had a real surprise Best Picture winner since Crash eight years ago, and anything that isn't Gravity/12 Years/American Hustle will qualify as such...Again, I think like every other voting bloc, the Academy is terrified of being called racist and that couple with the many who genuinely liked 12 Years means Gravity will probably get screwed. Then again, remember 1995's Oscars, which was three times the mess of no clear favorites in most categories and the big awards ended up going to fucking Braveheart? So, who can say for sure what'll happen! THAT'S WHAT MAKES IT FUN

Maybe this year instead of the taking-away-your-freedom film beating the space film it'll be the other way around (that's fucked up I know, sorry). Cuaron, McConaughey, Blanchett, Nyong'o and Jordan Catalano seem to be locks (sorry again). Any upsets in the minor/tech categories really wouldn't excite me much, maybe Miyazaki beating Frozen or Jonze beating Hustle. That pretty much leaves Best Pic. But I suspect this year is gonna be a yawner so I'm gonna start drinking during the red carpet. Can't wait to see what Jimmy Kimmel does after the show.

oscar predictions (ignore typos/mistakes):

best pic: 12 years a slave
best actor: matthew mcconaughey
best actress: cate blanchett
best supporting actor: jared leto
best supporting actress: lupita nyongo
best animated feature: frozen
best cinematography: gravity
best costume design: american hustle
best directing: gravity
best doc: act of killing
best short doc: prison terminal
best film editing: american hustle
best foreign language: the hunt (this one is anyone's guess - it could easily go to the Hunt, the Great Beauty, or Broken Circle Breakdown. Not like last year, when Amour was practically guaranteed to win)
best makeup/hairstyling: dallas buyers club
best original score: gravity
best original song: happy (despicable me 2)
best production design: great gatsby
best animated: feral
best live action short film: helium
best sound editing: gravity
best sound mixing: gravity
best visual effects: gravity
best adapted screenplay: 12 years a slave
best original screenplay: american hustle

Independent Spirit Awards do the "Pretty much just the Oscars" thing again this year:

BEST FEATURE
"12 Years a Slave"

BEST LEAD FEMALE
Cate Blanchett, "Blue Jasmine"

BEST LEAD MALE
Matthew McConaughey, "Dallas Buyers Club"

BEST SUPPORTING FEMALE
Lupita Nyong'o, "12 Years a Slave"

BEST SUPPORTING MALE
Jared Leto, "Dallas Buyers Club"

BEST DIRECTOR
Steve McQueen, "12 Years a Slave"

BEST FIRST FEATURE
"Fruitvale Station"

JOHN CASSAVETES AWARD
"This Is Martin Bonner"

BEST SCREENPLAY
John Ridley, "12 Years a Slave"

BEST FIRST SCREENPLAY
Bob Nelson, "Nebraska"

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Sean Bobbitt, "12 Years a Slave"

BEST EDITING
Nat Sanders, "Short Term 12"

BEST INTERNATIONAL FILM
"Blue Is The Warmest Color"

BEST DOCUMENTARY
"20 Feet From Stardom"

ROBERT ALTMAN AWARD
"Mud"

domino harvey wrote:Independent Spirit Awards do the "Pretty much just the Oscars" thing again this year:

Seriously they need to change their rules, no one buys the Oscars are just catching up to us anymore. Patton Oswalt at least name checked Criterion.

domino harvey wrote:And Movie 43 cleaned up at the Razzies last night

After Earth was robbed.

Best Picture
Will Win:
12 Years a Slave
Should Win:
12 Years a Slave
If I Were King:
Inside Llewyn Davis

Best Director
Will Win:
Alfonso Cuarón, Gravity
Should Win:
Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave
If I Were King:
Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave

Best Actor
Will Win:
Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave
Should Win:
Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave
If I Were King:
Oscar Isaac, Inside Llewyn Davis

Best Actress
Will Win:
Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
Should Win:
Sandra Bullock, Gravity
If I Were King:
Adèle Exarchopoulos, Blue Is the Warmest Color

Best Supporting Actor
Will Win:
Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club
Should Win:
Barkhad Abdi, Captain Phillips
If I Were King:
Will Forte, Nebraska

Best Supporting Actress
Will Win:
Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
Should Win:
Lupita Nyong'o, 12 Years a Slave
If I Were King:
Lupita Nyong'o, 12 Years a Slave

Best Cinematography
Will Win:
Emmanuel Lubezki, Gravity
Should Win:
Emmanuel Lubezki, Gravity
If I Were King:
Emmanuel Lubezki, Gravity

Best Original Screenplay
Will Win:
Eric Warren Singer & David O. Russell, American Hustle
Should Win:
Spike Jonze, Her
If I Were King:
Joel Coen & Ethan Coen, Inside Llewyn Davis

Best Adapted Screenplay
Will Win:
John Ridley, 12 Years a Slave
Should Win:
Terence Winter, The Wolf of Wall Street
If I Were King:
Terence Winter, The Wolf of Wall Street

You have a long future ahead of you as an Academy Member!

I h8 u