criterionforum.org

Posted: **Mon Mar 06, 2023 3:46 am**

soundchaser wrote: Mon Mar 06, 2023 3:37 amThere's one pick in here that I couldn't give up even if I don't think it's got the momentum. No prizes for guessing which.

Spoiler

100% Condon, admirable

But you’re crazier than Lydia Tár for expecting the SAGs to go 1 for 4

Posted: **Mon Mar 06, 2023 3:50 am**

therewillbeblus wrote: Mon Mar 06, 2023 3:46 am
soundchaser wrote: Mon Mar 06, 2023 3:37 amThere's one pick in here that I couldn't give up even if I don't think it's got the momentum. No prizes for guessing which.

Spoiler
100% Condon, admirable

But you’re crazier than Lydia Tár for expecting the SAGs to go 1 for 4

Spoiler

I just can’t parse the discrepancies between SAG and BAFTA. The acting categories will be the death of me this cycle.

Posted: **Mon Mar 06, 2023 4:04 am**

Spoiler

I never put much stock into the BAFTAs. It’s felt like a less consistent predictor for a while, but maybe I just have a selective memory

Posted: **Mon Mar 06, 2023 4:10 am**

Spoiler

They're about the same in terms of prediction worthiness for acting. BAFTAs got Hopkins and McDormand two years ago while SAG missed both.

Posted: **Mon Mar 06, 2023 9:40 am**

Not confident about a few of these but I guess there’s no point in delaying. Will notify if I make any changes.

PICTURE
Everything Everywhere All At Once

DIRECTOR(s)
Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert — Everything Everywhere All At Once

ACTRESS
Michelle Yeoh — Everything Everywhere All At Once

ACTOR
Austin Butler — Elvis

SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Kerry Condon — The Banshees of Inisherin

SUPPORTING ACTOR
Ke Huy Quan — Everything Everywhere All At Once

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Everything Everywhere All At Once

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Women Talking

EDITING
Everything Everywhere All At Once

CINEMATOGRAPHY
All Quiet on the Western Front

MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Elvis

COSTUME DESIGN
Elvis

PRODUCTION DESIGN
Babylon

VISUAL EFFECTS
Avatar: The Way of Water

SCORE
All Quiet on the Western Front

SOUND
Top Gun: Maverick

SONG
Naatu Naatu — RRR

INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM
All Quiet on the Western Front

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE FILM
Navalny

ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio

ANIMATED SHORT FILM
The Boy, The Mole, His Wife and Her Lover

LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM
An Irish Goodbye

DOCUMENTARY SHORT
Stranger at the Gate

Posted: **Mon Mar 06, 2023 11:14 am**

Why is everyone choosing The Irish Goodbye over the Rohrwacher?

Posted: **Mon Mar 06, 2023 11:33 am**

It's the only English language Live-Action Short, which is why I will also be predicting it.

Posted: **Mon Mar 06, 2023 3:28 pm**

I still have a half-dozen nominees to catch this week before I post my predictions, but in the meantime let’s say that those who are participating in the Oscars game have until 12PM Pacific Time on Sunday to finalize their picks either in this thread or via PM to me.

Posted: **Wed Mar 08, 2023 12:54 am**

Apperson wrote:It's the only English language Live-Action Short, which is why I will also be predicting it.

I watched the Rohrwacher on Disney+, where it's only available with a pretty flat English dub (though the singing bits are still in Italian). Did anyone see the film in the theater as part of an Oscar Shorts package, and how was it presented there? Kinda wonder if a dub improves or worsens its odds.

Posted: **Wed Mar 08, 2023 2:20 am**

Disney+ has the original Italian, but you need to go to the options menu.

Posted: **Wed Mar 08, 2023 2:34 am**

While Hulu only has it in Italian, and the only English subtitle option is SDH.

Posted: **Wed Mar 08, 2023 5:28 pm**

I think I'm ready for my final predictions:

Updated 6:55am PDT

My Predictions

Best Picture: Everything Everywhere all at Once

Best Director: Daniel Schienert and Daniel Kwan

Best Actor: Austin Butler

Best Actress: Cate Blanchett

Best Supporting Actor: Ke Huy Quan

Best Supporting Actress: Kerry Condon

Best Original Screenplay: The Banshees of Inisherin

Best Adapted Screenplay: All Quiet on the Western Front

Best International Feature: All Quiet on the Western Front

Best Documentary Feature: Navalny

Best Animated Feature Academy Award Winner Guillermo del Toro's production of Carlo Collodi's Pinocchio

Best Cinematography: All Quiet on the Western Front

Best Film Editing: Everything Everywhere all at Once

Best Production Design: Babylon

Best Costume Design: Elvis

Best Makeup and Hairstyling: Elvis

Best Sound: Top Gun: Maverick

Best Visual Effects: Avatar: The Way of Water

Best Original Score: Everything Everywhere all at Once

Best Original Song: 'Naatu Naatu' from RRR

Best Live-Action Short: An Irish Goodbye

Best Documentary Short: Stranger at the Gate

Best Animated Short: The Boy, the Mole, the Fox, and Two Smoking Barrels

Posted: **Thu Mar 09, 2023 2:34 pm**

My final predictions:

Spoiler

Best Picture- Everything Everywhere All at Once

Best Director- Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Best Actress- Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Best Actor- Austin Butler, Elvis

Best Supporting Actress- Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin

Best Supporting Actor- Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Best Original Screenplay- Everything Everywhere All at Once

Best Adapted Screenplay- Women Talking

Best International Feature- All Quiet on the Western Front

Best Animated Feature- Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio

Best Documentary Feature- Navalny

Best Editing- Everything Everywhere All at Once

Best Cinematography- All Quiet on the Western Front

Best Costume Design- Elvis

Best Production Design- Elvis

Best Makeup and Hairstyling- Elvis

Best Visual Effects- Avatar: The Way of Water

Best Sound- Top Gun: Maverick

Best Original Score- All Quiet on the Western Front

Best Original Song- "Naatu Naatu," RRR

Best Live Action Short- An Irish Goodbye

Best Animated Short- The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse

Best Documentary Short- The Elephant Whisperers

Posted: **Thu Mar 09, 2023 3:52 pm**

My picks:

Spoiler

PICTURE
Everything Everywhere All At Once

DIRECTOR(s)
Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert — Everything Everywhere All At Once

ACTRESS
Cate Blanchett - Tar

ACTOR
Brendan Fraser - The Whale

SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Jamie Lee Curtis - Everything Everywhere All At Once

SUPPORTING ACTOR
Ke Huy Quan — Everything Everywhere All At Once

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Everything Everywhere All At Once

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Women Talking

INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM
All Quiet on the Western Front

EDITING
Everything Everywhere All At Once

CINEMATOGRAPHY
Elvis

MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Elvis

COSTUME DESIGN
Black Panther - Wakanda Forever

PRODUCTION DESIGN
Babylon

VISUAL EFFECTS
Avatar: The Way of Water

SCORE
All Quiet on the Western Front

SOUND
Top Gun: Maverick

SONG
Naatu Naatu — RRR

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE FILM
Fire of Love

ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio

ANIMATED SHORT FILM
My Year of Dicks

LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM
The Red Suitcase

DOCUMENTARY SHORT
The Elephant Whisperers

Posted: **Thu Mar 09, 2023 11:27 pm**

My predictions:

Spoiler

BEST PICTURE
Everything Everywhere All At Once

BEST DIRECTOR
Daniels

BEST ACTRESS
Michelle Yeoh

BEST ACTOR
Brendan Fraser

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Kerry Condon

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Ke Huy Quan

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Everything Everywhere All At Once

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Women Talking

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Elvis

BEST EDITING
Everything Everywhere All At Once

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
All Boring on the Western Front

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
GDT's Pinocchio

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Navalny

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Elvis

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
Elvis

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Babylon

BEST SOUND
Top Gun: Maverick

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Avatar: The Way of Water

BEST SCORE
All Quiet on the Western Front

BEST SONG
RRR ("Naatu Naatu")

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT
An Irish Goodbye

BEST ANIMATED SHORT
Boy, Mole, Fox, Horse

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
Stranger at the Gate

Posted: **Fri Mar 10, 2023 9:08 am**

Mandy Walker wins the ASC feature film award, the first woman to do so. The only female cinematographers previously to be nominated for the ASC are also the only two to be Oscar-nominated - Rachel Morrison for Mudbound and Ari Wegner for The Power of the Dog - and the ASC winner has gone on to win the Oscar seven times out of the last ten.

Posted: **Sat Mar 11, 2023 6:11 pm**

This feels like the most uncertain year in quite some time; I could easily see missing on half of the top eight:

Spoiler

Best Picture
Will Win: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Should Win: TÁR
Shoulda Been a Contender: Bones and All — I get why "gory cannibal road trip romance" wasn't a shoo-in for the Academy, but I still maintain that this should have been given more attention

Best Director
Will Win: Daniels
Should Win: Todd Field
Shoulda Been a Contender: Noah Baumbach flexing new muscles with White Noise would have made for a worthy nomination if anyone else had seen or liked it, but I'm actually going to go with another criminally undervalued Netflix offering. Sebastián Lelio's The Wonder represents both a continuation of his thematic interests and a fascinating formal departure, built like nearly all of his films around superb performances by women.

Best Actress
Will Win: Cate Blanchett
Should Win: Cate Blanchett
Shoulda Been a Contender: Florence Pugh in the aforementioned The Wonder would be a classic period piece nomination for a rising star, but for me the only actress who even approached what Blanchett achieves in TÁR is Rebecca Hall in Resurrection.

Best Actor
Will Win: Austin Butler
Should Win: Colin Farrell
Shoulda Been a Contender: Two killers in movies too uncomfortable for the Academy to embrace: Timothée Chalamet gives his purest movie star performance in Bones and All, and Mehdi Bajestani is captivating as a moralizing serial killer in Ali Abassi's Holy Spider

Best Supporting Actress
Will Win: Jamie Lee Curtis
Should Win: Kerry Condon
Shoulda Been a Contender: Nina Hoss in TÁR, Anne Hathaway in Armageddon Time, and Claire Foy, Jessie Buckley, and Rooney Mara from Women Talking could have easily replaced this entire category for me, with Foy being the one I'd vote for today

Best Supporting Actor
Will Win: Ke Huy Quan
Should Win: Ke Huy Quan, though I'd call both him and Gleeson leads
Shoulda Been a Contender: Would have loved to see Jeremy Strong score a spot for Armageddon Time, and Mark Rylance rides a very delicate line between laughable and terrifying in Bones and All

Best Adapted Screenplay
Will Win: Women Talking
Should Win: Women Talking
Shoulda Been a Contender: Noah Baumbach adapted an extremely difficult novel in White Noise, but Emma Donoghue's stellar adaptation of her own novel with Sebastián Lelio and Alice Birch would be my top pick

Best Original Screenplay
Will Win: The Banshees of Inisherin
Should Win: TÁR
Shoulda Been a Contender: Andrew Semans' script for Resurrection takes enormous risks but couches them in chilling dialogue and a gloriously insane ending that deserves recognition

Best Cinematography
Will Win: Elvis
Should Win: TÁR
Shoulda Been a Contender: I'm going to call out Matthew Heineman's Retrograde one of two documentaries from 2022 with award-worthy cinematography

Best Editing
Will Win: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Should Win: TÁR
Shoulda Been a Contender: I'll go with Mátyás Fekete's work in constructing the bizarre rhythms of Peter Strickland's Flux Gourmet

Best Costume Design
Will Win: Elvis
Should Win: Babylon
Shoulda Been a Contender: I quite enjoyed both Bones and All's late-'80s style and The Northman's norse medievalism

Best Makeup
Will Win: Elvis
Should Win: The Batman
Shoulda Been a Contender: Crimes of the Future

Best Production Design
Will Win: Elvis
Should Win: All Quiet on the Western Front
Shoulda Been a Contender: The Wonder's period look is grimily convincing, and TÁR is immaculate

Best Score
Will Win: Babylon
Should Win: The Banshees of Inisherin
Shoulda Been a Contender: The Batman

Best Song
Will Win: "Naatu Naatu"
Should Win: "Naatu Naatu"
Shoulda Been a Contender: "Flat for Sale" from TÁR

Best Sound
Will Win: Top Gun: Maverick
Should Win: The Batman
Shoulda Been a Contender: TÁR

Best VFX
Will Win: Avatar: The Way of Water
Should Win: Avatar: The Way of Water
Shoulda Been a Contender: If we take budget into consideration, the effects in Everything Everywhere All at Once look better than a lot of releases with 10x the money

Best Animated Feature
Will Win: Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio
Should Win: Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio
Shoulda Been a Contender: I didn't see anything I liked more in this category than the nominees

Best Documentary Feature
Will Win: Navalny
Should Win: All That Breathes
Shoulda Been a Contender: Retrograde

Best International Feature
Will Win: All Quiet on the Western Front
Should Win: EO
Shoulda Been a Contender: Goran Stolevski's You Won't Be Alone and Hlynur Pálmason's Godland

Best Animated Short
Will Win: "The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse"

Best Documentary Short
Will Win: "The Elephant Whisperers"

Best Live Action Short
Will Win: "Le Pupille"

Posted: **Sat Mar 11, 2023 6:17 pm**

Very uncertain — when was the last year three of the four acting categories were this tense?

Posted: **Sat Mar 11, 2023 6:37 pm**

Hard to say. Both 2016 and 2018 award seasons had uncertain top acting prizes, but the supporting ones were more certain, and at least one in each season was more than the other. I don’t think it’s quite the same but those seem like decent examples

Posted: **Sat Mar 11, 2023 6:48 pm**

Not sure I agree about 2018: though the result was a huge upset, I think Close was considered a prohibitive favorite in Actress, while I feel like Malek was pretty locked in for a while.

Posted: **Sat Mar 11, 2023 7:11 pm**

Then I guess it would be 2014 and 2008 seasons as others. Going through the last few decades, I’m surprised at just how many tight best actor and actress races there were. It feels like the supporting categories have been locked in overall for a while, which is why this year is standing out. It’s not rare for the choice to come down to the best performance vs who Hollywood feels they owe, but when there are two people in the latter category, it creates a bit of a mess. So my hope for Condon’s win is sourced less in optimism that more people will pick the best perf, but assuming that the ‘owe’ group will split between the other two

Posted: **Sat Mar 11, 2023 7:37 pm**

predix

Best Picture: Everything Everywhere all at Once

Best Director: Daniels

Best Actor: Brendan Fraser

Best Actress: Cate Blanchett

Best Supporting Actor: Ke Huy Quan

Best Supporting Actress: Angela Bassett

Best Original Screenplay: Everything Everywhere all at Once

Best Adapted Screenplay: Women Talking

Best International Feature: All Quiet on the Western Front

Best Documentary Feature: Navalny

Best Animated Feature Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio

Best Cinematography: All Quiet on the Western Front

Best Film Editing: Everything Everywhere all at Once

Best Production Design: Babylon

Best Costume Design: Elvis

Best Makeup and Hairstyling: Elvis

Best Sound: Top Gun: Maverick

Best Visual Effects: Avatar: The Way of Water

Best Original Score: Babylon

Best Original Song: 'Naatu Naatu'

Best Live-Action Short: An Irish Goodbye

Best Documentary Short: Stranger at the Gate

Best Animated Short: The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse

Posted: **Sat Mar 11, 2023 9:35 pm**

soundchaser wrote: Sat Mar 11, 2023 6:17 pm Very uncertain — when was the last year three of the four acting categories were this tense?

The supporting categories were pretty locked up in 2020, but both Hopkins v Boseman and the four-horse race in Actress were pretty interesting

Posted: **Sat Mar 11, 2023 10:30 pm**

The Razzies gave Worst Picture to Blonde. Oof, I don't know where to begin. The Razzies are meant to be jokes, but their jokes haven't been funny for a while. This is just lame clickbait. But at least they tried to save face for the Worst Actress controversy this year.

Posted: **Sat Mar 11, 2023 11:48 pm**

Predictions

PICTURE - Everything Everywhere All At Once
ACTOR - Brendan Fraser
ACTRESS - Cate Blanchett
SUP. ACTRESS - Angela Bassett
SUP. ACTOR - Ke Huy Quan
DIRECTOR - The Daniels
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY - The Banshees of Inisherin
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY - Women Talking
ANIMATED FEATURE - Pinocchio
ANIMATED SHORT - The Boy, the Mole, the Fox, and the Horse
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE - Navalny
DOCUMENTARY SHORT - Elephant Whisperers
INTERNATIONAL FEATURE - All Quiet on the Western Front
LIVE ACTION SHORT - An Irish Goodbye
PRODUCTION DESIGN - Babylon
CINEMATOGRAPHY - All Quiet on the Western Front
SOUND - Top Gun Maverick
COSTUME - Black Panther 2
MAKEUP and HAIR-STYLING - The Whale
FILM EDITING - Everything Everywhere All At Once
VISUAL EFFECTS - Avatar 2
ORIGINAL SCORE - Babylon
ORIGINAL SONG - Naatu Naatu from RRR

criterionforum.org

Awards Season 2022

Re: Awards Season 2022

Re: Awards Season 2022

Re: Awards Season 2022

Re: Awards Season 2022

Re: Awards Season 2022

Re: Awards Season 2022

Re: Awards Season 2022

Re: Awards Season 2022

Re: Awards Season 2022

Re: Awards Season 2022

Re: Awards Season 2022

Re: Awards Season 2022

Re: Awards Season 2022

Re: Awards Season 2022

Re: Awards Season 2022

Re: Awards Season 2022

Re: Awards Season 2022

Re: Awards Season 2022

Re: Awards Season 2022

Re: Awards Season 2022

Re: Awards Season 2022

Re: Awards Season 2022

Re: Awards Season 2022

Re: Awards Season 2022

Re: Awards Season 2022