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ryannichols7 wrote: Sun Mar 02, 2025 9:31 pm

therewillbeblus wrote: Sun Mar 02, 2025 8:59 pm Really thrilled with how many people are 'playing' this year, over double last year's turnout!

we are also three pages longer than last year, and it's funny since last year was one of the more well regarded years too. I guess we knew Oppenheimer had more in the bag there

And I think people are just more excited in a year where it's essentially Sean Baker vs. Brady Corbet. I can't believe I just typed that out

There are two categories where everyone (19) picked the same winner

therewillbeblus wrote: Sun Mar 02, 2025 9:42 pm There are two categories where everyone (19) picked the same winner

Adapted Screenplay and?

therewillbeblus wrote: Sun Mar 02, 2025 9:36 pm

ryannichols7 wrote: Sun Mar 02, 2025 9:31 pm

therewillbeblus wrote: Sun Mar 02, 2025 8:59 pm Really thrilled with how many people are 'playing' this year, over double last year's turnout!

we are also three pages longer than last year, and it's funny since last year was one of the more well regarded years too. I guess we knew Oppenheimer had more in the bag there

And I think people are just more excited in a year where it's essentially Sean Baker vs. Brady Corbet. I can't believe I just typed that out

for director you mean, as The Brutalist has little shot at picture I feel like. it's firmly Anora and Conclave for the top prize in my eyes, but Corbet for sure can win director easily. him winning feels like Alfonso Cuaron winning for his ambitious movies, but not having a chance at all at best pic

Last year's crop of nominees was so much better than this year's. I cannot say I'm too excited. But no denying last year's winners were easily predictable, whereas this year, who knows? I'll likely get most of these wrong:

Spoiler

Picture - Conclave
Actor - Brody
Actress - Madison
Supporting Actor - Culkin
Supporting Actress - Saldaña
Director - Corbet
O Screenplay - Anora
A Screenplay - Conclave
Cinematography - Brutalist
Production Design - Dune 2
Costume Design - Wicked
Editing - Anora
Hair and Makeup - The Substance
Sound - Dune 2
Score - Brutalist
Song - El Mal
VFX - Dune 2
Animated Feature - Inside Out 2
Documentary - No Other Land
International Film - I'm Still Here
Short - A Lien
Animated Short - Yuck
Documentary Short - Incident

thirtyframesasecond wrote: Sun Mar 02, 2025 9:44 pm

therewillbeblus wrote: Sun Mar 02, 2025 9:42 pm There are two categories where everyone (19) picked the same winner

Adapted Screenplay and?

I haven't looked, but I'd be surprised if anyone picked something other than The Substance for Makeup

Voting closed, and Culkin is the other

I have a profoundly strong feeling that we're all going to be puzzled and annoyed (or... smugly chuffed? idk) by a Conclave win tonight.

I think Anora, The Brutalist, and Nickel Boys are going to split votes as #1 and/or #2 on most ballots, but toward the bottom on others, while Conclave will likely come in on almost everybody's top 5 just by default, and will slip through by a hair, coupled with a Sean Baker win in Best Director. I don't think it's a good thing - Conclave was dreadfully boring - but Oscar voters can't resist the most hamfisted commentary on 'society nowadays' available to them, and this will be no exception.

I don't know if it'll necessarily go the distance, but I am curious if Conclave got a boost in voting when the Pope went into the hospital (and surely it would have if the worse turn in his health happened before voting closed).

If so, an utterly insane reason for a film to win an award like this. I will never understand non-Catholics' drooling obsession with the Vatican, but you can set your watch to it.

mfunk9786 wrote: Sun Mar 02, 2025 10:10 pm I have a profoundly strong feeling that we're all going to be puzzled and annoyed (or... smugly chuffed? idk) by a Conclave win tonight.

I think Anora, The Brutalist, and Nickel Boys are going to split votes as #1 and/or #2 on most ballots, but toward the bottom on others, while Conclave will likely come in on almost everybody's top 5 just by default, and will slip through by a hair, coupled with a Sean Baker win in Best Director. I don't think it's a good thing - Conclave was dreadfully boring - but Oscar voters can't resist the most hamfisted commentary on 'society nowadays' available to them, and this will be no exception.

I want the movie to win and think it's a much better representation of society and the international-ness of the Oscars than most movies could muster. it's an artistic achievement and is tremendously gripping and well acted. I loved just about every moment of it (and will write more in the...films of 2024? thread when I'm done with my own piece on it). I think it's a more broadly appealing film than Anora or The Brutalist but doesn't tip too far into Oscar bait like I worried it would. as for your last sentence, I will have to expand on that one later, not to derail this thread too much

Never Cursed wrote: Sun Mar 02, 2025 10:19 pm I don't know if it'll necessarily go the distance, but I am curious if Conclave got a boost in voting when the Pope went into the hospital (and surely it would have if the worse turn in his health happened before voting closed).

as beloved as Francesco is, I would be shocked if this was a reason anyone voted for it

ryannichols7 wrote: Sun Mar 02, 2025 10:24 pm as beloved as Francesco is, I would be shocked if this was a reason anyone voted for it

Totally agree - I think it's an ouroboros - if the current health status of the Pope matters enough to you to impact your Oscar ballot, you were going to have this one up high already. And if you had this one up high, you're probably monitoring the Pope's health status closely.

I only meant the above in the sense that I could imagine some particularly dim liberal voters (i.e., not devout Catholics or anything) making voting decisions based upon stuff they heard in the newspaper that day, already having positive associations with Francis because he's the Woke Pope or whatever, and assuming that some such voters definitely would have if Francis was at death's door during the voting for the same reasons. I feel like we've all read accounts of people making their ballot choices for even dumber reasons, and that logic wouldn't differ for other films with some perceived or actual connection to real-world issues if something about those issues had been in the news during the voting period (sex work for Anora, trans rights issues for Emilia Perez pre-meltdown, etc)

Isabella Rossellini is wearing a blue velvet gown and she's there with Laura Dern

That’s genuinely touching.

As far as surprises go, we ultimately are still looking at a lot of picks that are either/or— ie if a movie that isn’t Anora or Conclave wins Best Picture, THAT would be a surprise. Same with Baker/Corbet, Moore/Madison, and anyone who isn’t Culkin or Saldaña. I do think we’ll get at least one surprise by my above metrics though, though that could be famous last words

Less Lala Land, more The Day of the Locust, please

is the extended commercial for Wicked necessary

ryannichols7 wrote: Mon Mar 03, 2025 12:07 am is the extended commercial for Wicked necessary

In fairness, this is probably as much attention as they'll pay to any of the Best Picture nominees tonight if the past few years are any indication.

ryannichols7 wrote: Mon Mar 03, 2025 12:07 am is the extended commercial for Wicked necessary

Remember that fucking song from Dreamgirls on TWO separate shows?

ryannichols7 wrote: Mon Mar 03, 2025 12:07 am is the extended commercial for Wicked necessary

You are watching ABC

Glad we got the inevitable "Conan takes the Substance" bit out of the way early on. I wish we could've kept this thing hostless forever.

The red carpet made me really appreciate the technicians needed to obscure all of Arianna Grande’s horrendous tattoos

soundchaser wrote: Mon Mar 03, 2025 12:13 am Glad we got the inevitable "Conan takes the Substance" bit out of the way early on. I wish we could've kept this thing hostless forever.

Same. He’s just so toothless and past his prime now

Best Oscar host material ever? Finding myself laughing a lot which is uh… not usually my experience watching these