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It isn't, but Negga wasn't expected to break through and Adams was the category's lone snub. Something tells me voters were pretty split on Arrival which makes sense given that film's more nebulous qualities and the demographics of the Academy.

Negga making it is cool, but Adams should have Streep's spot. How many nominations (and often for lesser works) does that woman need?

captveg wrote:Negga making it is cool, but Adams should have Streep's spot. How many nominations (and often for lesser works) does that woman need?

After her Globes speech I knew she'd be nominated again-- this movie looks dreadful, at least I don't have to see it!

Stone and Portman were locks, Huppert solidified into one after the Golden Globes. The remaining two slots were between Annette Bening, Amy Adams, Ruth Negga, and Meryl Streep. Meryl had the totally unfair advantage of being given a lifetime achievement award at the Golden Globes, when it is custom to only give such prizes on years when an actor doesn't have a splashy project. That turned her into a safe bet, but I'm still struggling to see why Negga would have resonated enough to beat out the other two who both had the overdue narratives behind them.

I haven't seen it yet, but I'm surprised Mike Mills managed to get in for 20th Century Women's script after being snubbed for the far better received Beginners, but I'll take it as retribution! Good on the Lobster making it in as well

So.... aside from losing one of its song nominations and probably both acting nominations, does La La Land win the other 11?

Emma Stone will win. It's not a question.

While I don't necessarily think it was her intent, Streep's Golden speech pretty much cemented her Oscar nomination and the record for most noms. I was really hoping Nocturnal Animals would have showed up a bit more, considering all the BAFTA and Golden Globe nominations, but am happy for Michael Shannon. I was praying that Silence would take all the Hacksaw Ridge spots, but alas Gibson edged out Scorsese.

In the end, this played out more or less how I expected. Sad to see Amy Adams out, but glad for Ruth Negga. Also love the screenplay nomination for The Lobster (the only award this film ever had a chance of representing). I'll be happy if most of the major awards go by way of the Big 3. I see Lonergan taking original screenplay, Jenkins winning adapted, and La La Land going home with best director and picture.

domino harvey wrote:I haven't seen it yet, but I'm surprised Mike Mills managed to get in for 20th Century Women's script after being snubbed for the far better received Beginners, but I'll take it as retribution! Good on the Lobster making it in as well

I know you've got the weird anti-Bening thing you've shared earlier in this thread, but the consensus I've seen from literally every review of this film is that this is a considerably better film than his last one. Don't know why you seem to think otherwise. I'm frankly shocked at this nom too but I'll take what I can.

Beginners was mediocre to be honest. I don't think the script was that good (dog with a voice over?) but 20th Century Women does look pretty great

Ribs wrote:Emma Stone will win. It's not a question.

Isabelle Huppert turned in the best performance of the year of any actor, it's at least possible that'll be recognized

Ribs wrote:

domino harvey wrote:I haven't seen it yet, but I'm surprised Mike Mills managed to get in for 20th Century Women's script after being snubbed for the far better received Beginners, but I'll take it as retribution! Good on the Lobster making it in as well

I know you've got the weird anti-Bening thing you've shared earlier in this thread, but the consensus I've seen from literally every review of this film is that this is a considerably better film than his last one. Don't know why you seem to think otherwise. I'm frankly shocked at this nom too but I'll take what I can.

Being indifferent to an actress =/= against her

Beginners is one of the best films of the last decade, fight me fight me bring it on

The Best Actress category's winners have for the past decade been a who's-who of splashy mega-stars. They're not going to opt for something edgier and obscure.

Ribs wrote:Emma Stone will win. It's not a question.

So a record 12 is viable. (I can't see Gosling pulling it off)

Ribs wrote:Emma Stone will win. It's not a question.

It wouldn't shock me if she did, but I wouldn't count out Portman or Huppert.


Dom- You got there first with the Meryl Streep 'splanation and The Lobster praise. Touché!

Huppert is the third most likely winner out of the five. Find solace in that, mfunk

captveg wrote:

Ribs wrote:Emma Stone will win. It's not a question.

So a record 12 is viable. (I can't see Gosling pulling it off)

If the light outrage against Affleck's personal problems builds Gosling could ride the film's coat tails as a safe alternate. Not super likely but he has a better chance than anyone else

The iffier question for La La Land will be Screenplay. Prognosticators have guessed this category fairly poorly in recent years so I'm not ruling out that Manchester might not actually have the traction they expect here.

And, yeah, I think of the four acting categories Affleck is in the position most likely to falter, but I feel like Washington is the more likely alternate (or even Garfield, as the idea of a Stone/Garfield ballot is too fun to ignore)

domino harvey wrote:

captveg wrote:

Ribs wrote:Emma Stone will win. It's not a question.

So a record 12 is viable. (I can't see Gosling pulling it off)

If the light outrage against Affleck's personal problems builds Gosling could ride the film's coat tails as a safe alternate. Not super likely but he has a better chance than anyone else

True. I would think Washington may have a shot in that case, too.

I haven't seen it but I've heard many negative remarks about Washington's perf being too hammy, which never precludes a nom (the Academy loves when their favs go over the top), but may be harder to find enough consensus for a win

Ribs wrote:The iffier question for La La Land will be Screenplay. Prognosticators have guessed this category fairly poorly in recent years so I'm not ruling out that Manchester might not actually have the traction they expect here.

I would be shocked if it won Screenplay, but whether it does or not will be evidence of its passion-level with voters. I wouldn't have thought it would sweep the Globes either but the film clearly is a whirlwind

1) Streep was awful in the awful Florence Foster Jenkins. Amy Adams should've gotten that slot.
2) I really like Emma Stone, but I think Natalie Portman deserves to win this year.
3) "Another Day Of Sun" was the best song from La La Land, that one should've been nominated.
4) The actual best song of the year was "Incredible Thoughts" from Popstar-Never Stop Never Stopping.
5) Tom Ford movies continue to get snubbed in ridiculous ways; first A Single Man didn't get nominated for cinematography, now Nocturnal Animals doesn't get nominated for Best Score
6) Best Original Screenplay continues to be one category that really does a good job with their nominations each year.

The Oscars' website goofed again. After posting a pic of Carol in the Best Picture category last time, this year they inadvertently listed Tom Hanks as the sixth (!) Best Actor nominee

I mean, maybe I'm just in a bubble, but every critic I care about was making jokes about how terrible Nocturnal Animals was in the past few months, and this forum's fairly universal love of it has frightened and confused me.