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therewillbeblus wrote: Sat Feb 26, 2022 11:27 pm Do we have a pulse on how the industry feels about The Power of the Dog three months removed from release? It was the frontrunners for BP and Director from the outset and has stayed locked in place ever since, but I don’t detect a ton of enthusiasm for it. I wonder if another film or filmmaker threatens to slide past it in either category- though my money would be on PTA if anything. I don’t see many shifting their enthusiasm to Branagh or Spielberg this year, while that film continues to reach a lot of people’s warm and fuzzy spots who aren’t huge fans of his to begin with- but who knows

I feel like voters see Power of the Dog as the movie that should win because, well, it looks like a great movie and critics loved it so no one will complain, even if voters themselves are not passionate about it. Just like last year it didn't feel like people were passionate about Nomadland but it won anyway.

Campion expectedly won the DGA award, let's see what next weekend's WGAs bring (if Branagh's momentum overtakes PTA's in the home stretch...)

Jesus, I thought the Oscars were tonight. Two more weeks still?

Fascinating that ABC thinks it’s more of a drain on ratings to air Best Film Editing than to have the ceremony take place three months into the next year

CODA won at the PGAs, upsetting Power of the Dog, which along with the SAG for cast means.. we have a(n even less interesting) contender

Wow, that would mean the most boring winner in a long time. Like maybe Chariots of Fire long.

Or since Nomadland, but I know what you’re getting at

I’m still bullish on Dog given the rest of the season up to this point and the seemingly more “out there” Academy in recent years, but I’ll admit last night has me wavering a bit.

therewillbeblus wrote: Sun Mar 20, 2022 5:46 pm Or since Nomadland, but I know what you’re getting at

See I think that, and Crash and Green Book, are too divisive to fit the boring category. No one is going to speak passionately about the wrongness of CODA since it’s a glorified TV movie.

Ha, you originally said "brining" and looking up what that meant, I thought you were going more for "coming out of nowhere" or "sui generis."

Anyway I recently conned my workplace into doing an Oscar pool (no one bets anything but I buy the winner a ticket to a movie of their choice) in the hopes they'd start talking about something other than sports, so I guess I'm invested this year. Leaning hard into Dog for acting categories but West Side Story overall, because I think it's simultaneously the best way for Hollywood to pat itself on the back and to tout its progressiveness

One good that could come out of CODA winning is some label putting La famille Belier out on Blu stateside

CODA wins the WGA for Adapted Screenplay (with The Power of the Dog ineligible)
Don't Look Up wins Original Screenplay (with Belfast ineligible but Licorice Pizza eligable and nominated)

Might be that kind of year for some people.

Actually, I kind of want CODA to win as a big middle finger to the Oscars hyperfocusing on getting mainstream viewers. What better way to do that than award a film only available on a streaming platform that almost no one subscribes to? The Oscars deserve it.

Here's How Memoria Can Still Win The Electoral College

Nailing my colors to the mast early:

Spoiler

BEST PICTURE
The Power of the Dog

BEST DIRECTOR
Jane Campion

BEST ACTOR
Will Smith

BEST ACTRESS
Penelope Cruz

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Troy Kotsur

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Ariana DeBose

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Licorice Pizza

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The Power of the Dog

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Dune

BEST FILM EDITING
tick, tick…Boom!

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Dune

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Cruella

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
The Eyes of Tammy Faye

BEST SCORE
Dune

BEST SONG
No Time to Die

BEST SOUND
Dune

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Dune

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Encanto

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
Drive My Car

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Summer of Soul

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT
"The Long Goodbye”

BEST ANIMATED SHORT
“Robin Robin”

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
"The Queen of Basketball"

This season just got really funky in the last few days, and I’m genuinely not sure about a lot of the bigger non-acting awards.

EDIT: I’ve changed two of my picks, but they’re to far more surprising choices, so I hope this isn’t uncouth.

I admire your optimism

domino harvey wrote: Mon Mar 21, 2022 2:46 pm I admire your optimism

I expect I'm going to be wrong, but I couldn't bring myself to be right. We'll see what happens with Adapted Screenplay - I think that'll be very telling of where the evening's going.

I've said this before regarding certain absurd category upsets, but if McKay beats PTA I might just have to be done. soundchaser, I don't think your picks are outlandish- even if they go against the recent information from this weekend, they still feel like the safest and smartest picks for now.

Did goldderby only update their odds for Adapted Screenplay, because CODA is now tied with POTD, while Licorice Pizza is still ahead of Don't Look Up without as many "experts" changing their predictions there- which would be inspiring if it weren't for my hesitancy to trust that they've gotten to that category yet

therewillbeblus wrote: Mon Mar 21, 2022 4:33 pm I've said this before regarding certain absurd category upsets, but if McKay beats PTA I might just have to be done.

Don't worry, this will be Branagh's consolation prize. Decide now whether that's better or worse!

My predix, based on choosing the most predictable, least interesting and often least-desired outcome:

Best Picture: CODA
Would not surprise me: Belfast, the Power of the Dog, West Side Story

Best Director: Jane Campion
Would not surprise me: Steven Spielberg

Best Actor: Will Smith

Best Actress: Nicole Kidman
Would not surprise me: Jessica Chastain, Penelope Cruz

Best Sup Actor: Troy Kotsur

Best Sup Actress: Ariana DeBose

Best Adapted Screenplay: CODA
Would not surprise me: All others are equally plausible

Best Original Screenplay: Belfast
Would not surprise me: Licorice Pizza

I'll edit this with down ballot noms when DarkImbecile makes me

EDIT: HE MADE ME, THE DASTARD!

Best Cinematography: Dune
Would not surprise me: Macbeth, the Power of the Dog

Best Costume Design: Cruella

Best Editing: Dune
Would not surprise me: tick, tick...BOOM!

Best Makeup: the Eyes of Tammy Faye

Best Production Design: Dune

Best Score: Dune

Best Song: Dos Orugitas (since everyone will vote for it in place of "We Don't Talk About Bruno")
Would not surprise me: No Time to Die

Best Sound: Dune

Best Visual Effects: Dune

Best Animated Feature: Encanto

Best Documentary Feature: Summer of Soul
Would not surprise me: Flee

Best International Film: Drive My Car
Would not surprise me: the Worst Person in the World

Best Animated Short: Robin Robin

Best Documentary Short: Queen of Basketball

Best Live Action Short: Long Goodbye

The BAFTA ceremony appears to have been a super-spreader event for COVID due to lack of mask-wearing, which may result in some attendees skipping the Oscars after testing positive.

hearthesilence wrote: Mon Mar 21, 2022 7:18 pm The BAFTA ceremony appears to have been a super-spreader event for COVID due to lack of mask-wearing, which may result in some attendees skipping the Oscars after testing positive.

This is not on you necessarily, hearthesilence, but I do think we need some clear definition of what constitutes a super-spreader. A few attendees testing positive after an event as large as the BAFTAs is not particularly surprising; they just happen to be high-profile attendees.

Seems very on-brand for Oscars 2022 to pay lip-service to appealing to a younger, more diverse audience yet failing to invite a 20-year-old Latina breakout star or, even worse, asking her to be a presenter. “No, let’s get a bunch of middle-aged white action sports dudes and DJ Khaled instead!”

If there’s one thing you can count on with the Oscars, it’s each year’s ceremony somehow being worse than the last.