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It's an uphill road for Fincher now. The winner of the DGA has gone on to win best director at the Academy Awards 55 of the 62 times that the DGA has presented the award, including the past seven years in a row. It's a shame, because although I liked it all right, I think that anyone who was willing to place the camera three inches from the actors could have directed The King's Speech.

If The Social Network ends up only getting Best Screenplay, that'll still be one award too many for the film as far as Armond White would be concerned. I always felt 12 noms for The King's Speech was a tad much, and have to say if they have to split honours between Social Network and King's Speech for Best Picture and Director (ideally, Social Network would get both), I'd go with Fincher for direction (even though I consider his film to be far better than Hooper's).

How can you say that without even having seen The King's Speech, though?

I saw it yesterday and wasn't particularly thrilled with it.

Gotcha, sorry for the confusion.

And the SAG Ensemble award goes to King's Speech.

It's on a roll - I was thinking a split film / director win, but I'm starting to think King's Speech will get both.

Individual acting wins by the way were Firth, Portman, Bale and Leo. Leads are pretty much a lock - supports could be closer.

Dennis Hopper will defeat Tony Curtis and Leslie Nielsen for the biggest applause on the death montage.

aox wrote:Oscar Curse Study

Poor Natalie, though she did get engaged pretty quick so I was never too optimistic about that union.

so if Bening wins, she and Warren are kaput...officially

Quick, name two Canadian films you've actually heard of this year in awards talk ...

If you guessed Barney's Version and Incendies to get the most Genie Nominations, you'd be right.

Splice also got a best picture nom.

Uh oh. Could the tides turn against Melissa Leo?

She's not going to win anyway

Has anyone seen any of the nominated shorts? A theater here is playing each category as a single feature this week. Animated doesn't interest me as much as live action and documentary - but the latter runs 3:17 together and is only showing Tuesday and thursday nights. It's kind of a haul for me on a work night, but that's the category i'm most interested in. Is it worth the effort? I'll probably check the live action shorts regardless this weekend....they are offering a gift card to the theater if you correctly guess the oscar winners too, so might as well.

I saw the animated shorts compilation last year and enjoyed it, so I'll probably catch it again this year. For the live action fiction shorts, it looks like every single one of them is either overbearingly quirky, unbearably depressing, or both- I don't mind either all that much, but they go together like orange juice and toothpaste.

Jeff wrote:It's an uphill road for Fincher now. The winner of the DGA has gone on to win best director at the Academy Awards 55 of the 62 times that the DGA has presented the award, including the past seven years in a row. It's a shame, because although I liked it all right, I think that anyone who was willing to place the camera three inches from the actors could have directed The King's Speech.

Tellingly, although The King's Speech has just swept the BAFTAs, David Fincher beat Tom Hooper for Best Director.

Boring Goya ceremony at Royal Opera in Madrid without the presence of the Crown Borbones.

This is the first time a Catalan-language film wins Best Film and perfomances, 9 Goyas in totall, Pa Negre (Black bread) directed by art house Agusti Villaronga.

Alex de la Iglesia, great loser this night. May be victic of the boycott. He was the Academy director untill these days. May he thought himself he was a great intellectual when he treated to make an arragment about the piracy conflict with the Ministry, the internet users, and all his scandals with his political speeches. Never, never, make politics in Spain. That's for burglars, bankers and mafiosos.

Buried wins the tecnical awards and original script.

Bardem, best actor for Biutiful.
Room in Rome, zero.

I don't get it.

MX FLIX PREDIX NO GTX NO GLRX:

Best Picture:

Will Win: The Social Network (An opportunity for the Academy to seem current without resorting to voting for a gay film. Part of the long term Crash "We're sorry!" campaign.
Should Win: Black Swan

Best Director:

Will Win: David Fincher, The Social Network
Should Win: Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan

Best Actor:

Will Win: Colin Firth, The King's Speech
Should Win: James Franco, 127 Hours (By an arm!)

Best Actress:

Will Win: Natalie Portman, Black Swan (I would not be shocked if this went to Jennifer Lawrence due to a vote split between Bening and Portman, nor would I be disappointed - Lawrence was outstanding.)
Should Win: Natalie Portman, Black Swan

Best Supporting Actor:

Will Win: Christian Bale, The Fighter
Should Win: Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech

Best Supporting Actress:

Will Win: Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit (She carried the film, and was nominated in this category because of the strength of Portman. Hopefully voters will realize that and give her the prize, and I bet they will.)
Should Win: Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit

Best Original Screenplay:

Will Win: The King's Speech
Should Win: The King's Speech

Best Adapted Screenplay:

Will Win: The Social Network
Should Win: The Social Network

Best Art Direction:

Will Win: The King's Speech
Should Win: The King's Speech

Best Cinematography:

Will Win: True Grit
Should Win: True Grit

Best Costume Design:

Will Win: The King's Speech
Should Win: Black Swan (Please note: This film isn't even nominated. Why? I can't even begin to speculate.)

Best Film Editing:

Will Win: The Social Network
Should Win: Black Swan (The editing in this film keeps the viewer riveted to the movement and emotion of the dance, while not drawing attention to the technicality of the dance, which was never the point of making the film in the first place.)

Best Makeup:

Will Win: The Wolfman
Should Win: The Wolfman (When you make this film, you win for this film; or else.)

Best Original Score:

Will Win: The King's Speech
Should Win: The Social Network (Haunting, capable of latching itself into the viewer's mind far longer than the film itself.)

Best Original Song:

Will Win: "We Belong Together"; Toy Story 3
Should Win: "If I Rise"; 127 Hours (Fit the mood of the moment perfectly, in a film that forces tears out of my eyes despite my insistence that they're unnecessary.)

Best Sound Editing:

Will Win: Inception
Should Win: True Grit (A film full of complicated edits involving gunshots from long distances and conversations conducted from within outhouses. Truly worthy of this award in a relatively thin year over an overly loud and bloated disasterpiece.)

Best Sound Mixing:

Will Win: Inception
Should Win: True Grit (Same goes in a category that's continually indistinguishable from its twin.)

Best Visual Effects:

Will Win: Inception
Should Win: Inception (Despite my dislike of this film, I've always admired Nolan's preference for practical effects, and he certainly makes the most of a huge budget here.)

Best Animated Feature:

Will Win: Toy Story 3
Should Win: Toy Story 3

Best Foreign Language Film:

Will Win: Dogtooth (Gut feeling here, and much stronger than the same gut feeling I had to my preference last year, The White Ribbon. A chance to vote for a truly interesting and, in a way, groundbreaking film.)
Should Win: Dogtooth

Best Documentary (Feature):

Will Win: Inside Job (Heavily political docs (especially ones regarding finance) always, always, always win this category.)
Should Win: Exit Though the Gift Shop (The most creative faux-documentary I've seen in a long time.)

I doubt that Steinfeld will win as the academy hates children. They'll nominate them, but never let them win(though of course there was Paper Moon). Also hasn't the head of AMPAS basically admitted that Banksy has won.

K

Helena Bonham Carter will win now that Melissa Leo fucked up and the King's Speech is probably gonna sweep. Christian Bale gets the Fighter win, Social Network gets screenplay only plus some technical awards. Most multiple nom Best Pic noms will walk away empty handed. No good surprises, only bad ones ala Precious' screenplay win last year

If Carter wins, I will buy you dinner