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I agree with Dom on that. Leo's fucked herself over, Steinfeld's too young, and switch youth with experience on Amy Adams. I guess Animal Kingdom chick is a wild card though it usually lead that gets the non-Americans in actress when it's an unknown.

I don't think The King's Speech will make a clean sweep (it didn't even achieve that at the BAFTAs). I think it will win the most awards, but it will probably lose Cinematography to True Grit, Editing to The Social Newtork, and I'm betting Fincher will win Best Director. While I predict KS will win Costume Design, there's a good chance Alice in Wonderland can win that one instead. And I think Steinfeld will take Supporting Actress. And Bale will win Supporting Actor, natch.

I don't agree that Steinfeld is too young. While it's true that children don't often win Oscars, when they do, it's always in the Supporting Actress category. Patty Duke, Tatum O'Neal, and Anna Paquin were all victorious here.

Man, Amy Adams winning would just be hysterical as the ultimate "Fuck you" from the Academy to Leo's agism milking. And the Academy has been known to do that sort if thing...

I am sticking to the winner predictions I made on page one of this thread five months ago. That's before any precursors or critics awards or lists were released. Although I would now change a few of my nominee lineups, I think I'd still pick the same winners*.

* Okay, I'd probably pick David Seidler in Original Screenplay now.

mfunk9786 wrote:Best Foreign Language Film:

Will Win: Dogtooth (Gut feeling here, and much stronger than the same gut feeling I had to my preference last year, The White Ribbon. A chance to vote for a truly interesting and, in a way, groundbreaking film.)
Should Win: Dogtooth

If Dogtooth beats out Biutiful or Incendies, it will be the upset of the evening.

Joel McHale hosts the Independent Spirit Awards tonight on IFC at 10:00 Eastern.

tavernier wrote:

mfunk9786 wrote:Best Foreign Language Film:

Will Win: Dogtooth (Gut feeling here, and much stronger than the same gut feeling I had to my preference last year, The White Ribbon. A chance to vote for a truly interesting and, in a way, groundbreaking film.)
Should Win: Dogtooth

If Dogtooth beats out Biutiful or Incendies, it will be the upset of the evening.

Agreed. We need to choose the foreign language nomination that is the most worthy and middlebrow without being confrontational or uncomfortable in any difficult way (last year was amazing for including two excellent films in The White Ribbon and A Prophet, but that itself almost immediately disqualified them from any serious consideration as to winning! Dogtooth falls into that category this year). Perhaps this rules out Biutiful too, even though Biutiful seems to tick most of the other boxes. I doubt the Academy is going to vote for an Algerian uprising film at this particular moment in time, so that rules out Outside The Law. Incendies sounds a bit like the token Middle East issue focused nomination for the year (see Ajami from 2010, Waltz With Bashir from 2009 and Beaufort from 2008) which probably doesn't have much of a chance, since it doesn't sound from its synopsis to be particularly pro-Israel focused.

So I think I'm going for Civilisation to win - childhood trauma, family drama and African refugee camp work, which sounds perfect issuetastic Oscar fodder. Though Suzanne Bier's film After The Wedding was foreign language nominated and had an Indian orphanage full of cute homily spouting children contrasted against an overprivileged family's dark (but not that dark - this wasn't another Festen) secrets back in Denmark that the hero had to confront and overcome to get cash to keep his Indian mission going, and that didn't win.

Interestingly both Bier with After The Wedding and Rachid Bouchareb with Days of Glory lost out to The Lives of Others in 2007, so it is a strange coincidence that they are both matched up again in this years awards. Either of them could be due a 'consolation' award but I still think Bier, due to her having directed a Hollywood film with Things We Lost In The Fire and having had the US remake of her 2004 film Brothers come out in the interim, is in with more of a chance.

Nikki Finke has a detailed, tentative schedule of tomorrow's ceremony in case you want to see what to look forward to/channel surf during.

Hmm, I was always under the impression that Dogtooth was the favorite but now that you guys put it into the Academy context I agree.

2011 Film Independent Spirit Award Winners:

BEST FEATURE
- Black Swan
BEST DIRECTOR
- Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan

BEST SCREENPLAY - Stuart Blumberg, Lisa Cholodenko- The Kids Are All Right

BEST FIRST FEATURE - Get Low
BEST FIRST SCREENPLAY - Lena Dunham, Tiny Furniture

BEST FEMALE LEAD - Natalie Portman- Black Swan

BEST MALE LEAD
- James Franco, 127 Hours

BEST SUPPORTING FEMALE - Dale Dickey- Winter's Bone

BEST SUPPORTING MALE
- John Hawkes- Winter's Bone

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
- Matthew Libatique- Black Swan

BEST DOCUMENTARY
- Exit Through the Gift Shop

BEST FOREIGN FILM
- The King's Speech
ROBERT ALTMAN AWARD - Please Give

JOHN CASSAVETES AWARD - Daddy Longlegs

ACURA SOMEONE TO WATCH AWARD - Mike Ott,
 Littlerock


AVEENO TRUER THAN FICTION AWARD - Jeff Malmberg, Marwencol

PIAGET PRODUCERS AWARD - Anish Savjani, Meek's Cutoff

Really with The King's Speech? Stuff like this is why I gave up on even the decent awards shows a while ago.

It's a really good film, guys. I know we all need a villian this year but I'm not so sure that it's a good choice for that.

Yeah, well, you know, that's just, like, your opinion, man.

Seriously though, I thought it was pretty good. I wouldn't see it again, but I was moved by it at one point or another. I'm just a bit baffled at its acclaim considering how simple and regular I found its premise and pacing to be.

James Mills wrote:Yeah, well, you know, that's just, like, your opinion, man.

Seriously though, I thought it was pretty good. I wouldn't see it again, but I was moved by it at one point or another. I'm just a bit baffled at its acclaim considering how simple and regular I found its premise and pacing to be.

this is precisely my stance as well. Fine film, nothing special.

Right, but to treat it as this year's
Crash or Avatar is a bit much, isn't it?

Yes. At least it is better than Atonement. And compared to Avatar and Crash, it is a masterpiece.

My original complaint was simply related to how uninspired and conventional it was of the alleged indie awards to give this the best foreign film award. I'm sure it's a perfectly competent picture; personally, I'm not going to watch it, but that stems mostly from my antipathy to anything related to the royal family.

It is frustrating to use up the Foreign Film slot on something that is so evidently on Hollywood's radar- it may be from outside the US, but it's certainly familiar territory.

^Nailed it.

I guess I'm one of those agists, because I was half paying attention to the TV with the sound off and when Alice woman won, I thought, "Oh, Melissa Leo won"

Deakins will die before ever winning.

I was reading that since they don't put the actual names on the ballots for Cinematography, name recognition can't enter into it. Still, everything but King's Speech had a legit claim to the win, so not so bad

Well Kirk Douglas is finally not looking like Kirk Douglas. Also how much you bet the kids watching are going who the fuck's Kirk Douglas.

knives wrote: Also how much you bet the kids watching are going who the fuck's Kirk Douglas.

That's all ONTD was saying-- but then everyone went from ignorant hatred to loving him. It's a victory for the youth of today!