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Oscars thinking about going back to five nominees for Best Picture -- Thank God

Revised Best Picture Nominees for 2014:

Birdman
American Sniper
The Theory of Everything
The Imitation Game
Selma

Though there's a good chance that this would simply mean a return to the much more conservative selection of films that have traditionally been up for that award, don't you think?


(I see swo beat me to the punch!)

It means three to five fewer prestige films I have to watch every year, I am solely excited on my own behalf

Your dedication to watching every nominated film is admirable, though one could argue that if the rules by which you live your life require you to watch Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close, then you might be living wrong.

I initially didn't like the introduction of the additional nominees when it was being set up as a way for more commercial films like The Dark Knight to get a nomination. Thankfully this seems to have backfired and we instead got more off-beat selections like A Serious Man, Winter's Bone, The Tree of Life, Her, and Whiplash that might not have been nominated otherwise. If it gets the general public talking about films they might not see otherwise, I'd like to keep it going.

domino harvey wrote:Oscars thinking about going back to five nominees for Best Picture -- Thank God

Dear God NO!

Luckily God favors me for running the Films of Faith List Project

It doesn't help that I'm an atheist either.

Frankly, I hate the fact that they don't nominate the full 10 films every year. I would be disappointed to see them go back down to 5.

Well since the number is going down it'll be easier to predict the BP nominees:

"The Hateful Eight"
"Joy"
"The Revenant"
"Snowden"
"Suffragette"

Carol will definitely be one of the five, feel free to quote this post when it happens in ten months

I think that "Carol"'s down fall will be the director. I could see it getting a Best Director nomination, but not a Best Picture nomination. "Snowden" and "The Hateful Eight" are the biggest locks; "The Hateful Eight" is because of Tarantino and "Snowden" is because it is based off a recent historical event. Since the Academy seems to have an interest in white guilt films they might have an interest in male guilt films so "Suffragette" might get nominated. Since "Birdman" won Best Picture "The Revenant" is very likely. "Joy" is the only one I'm not sure about; I'm only predicting that because David O. Russell seems to always have films nominated for Oscars. "Me, Earl, and the Dying Girl", "Steve Jobs", and "Trumbo" could easily take "Joy"'s place.

Edit 6/16/15: I now completely regret what I said about "Carol"

You guys really think "Snowden" is a lock? I would love that to be true, since it would be refreshing to see an actual good film about Snowden. However, it's been a long time since Oliver Stone has seen some serious Oscar love.

Snowden, to me, seems inevitably to turn out similar to the Fifth Estate. I don't think it'll end up with anything.

Well "The Fifth Estate" did have Bill Condon as the director. Oliver Stone is far more respected and better than him.

If The Danish Girl is released, how will the Academy refuse Tom Hooper plus Eddie Redmayne in drag?

It is opening Nov 27, it'll be in contention

ordinaryperson wrote:Well "The Fifth Estate" did have Bill Condon as the director. Oliver Stone is far more respected and better than him.

I think it's a long, long time since Stone has been on the Oscar radar (and maybe since he's been of any interest - I don't know, since I haven't seen any of his recent films).

Number of Academy Award Nominations This Century For a Film Directed by:
Bill Condon: 3
Oliver Stone: nil

Number of Years Since Last Oscar Nomination for One of Their Films:
Bill Condon: 9
Oliver Stone: 20

And in the 21st century they've both made five features. All of Stone's were potential Oscar bait; two of Condon's were Twilight sequels, which no doubt pay the bills, but nobody would seriously consider them as awards contenders. That leaves The Fifth Estate as Condon's sole Oscar swing-and-miss this century, and indeed, since he started swinging for them with Gods and Monsters. If either of them is an Academy darling at this point, surely it's Condon. (And I haven't seen any of the films involved and couldn't care less about either director!)

Here's my chart for what films are likely to be nominated (Yes, I'm completely ripping off Indiewire)

Most Likely
"Brooklyn"
"Carol"

Has a good shot
"Bridge of Spies"
"Demolition"
"The Danish Girl"
"The Hateful Eight"
"The Program"
"Inside Out"
"Joy"
"Knight of Cups"
"Macbeth"
"Me, Earl, and the Dying Girl"
"The Revenant"
"Trumbo"
"Steve Jobs"
"Suffragette"

Maybe?
"The Good Dinosaur"
"The Lobster"
"Sicario"
"Snowden"
"Spotlight"
"Star Wars: The Force Awakens"

Long Shots
"The Assassin"
"Creed"
"Dheepan"
"Louder Than Bombs"
"Mad Max: Fury Road"
"Spectre"
"Taxi"

FWIW, this is what I have down as possibilities:

Demolition
The Hateful Eight
In the Heart of the Sea
Irrational Man
Joy
Macbeth
Mr. Holmes
The Sea of Trees
Bridge of Spies
Hail Caesar
The Revenant
The Martian 
Trumbo
Carol
Knight of Cups
Steve Jobs
Genius
Suffragette

With outside chances for Creed, Star Wars, and Spectre (I think Creed is incredibly unlikely, but there is a chance it's legitimate being made as more than a money-grab; Skyfall just barely missed out on a nomination and the leaked script is plenty "artsy" enough in addition to the action to get some nominations if it comes together well (and I think Christoph Waltz will likely end up with a Supporting Actor bid; he's the go-to man in that category and the only thing that could stop him is if he personally doesn't want to stop the chances of Samuel L. Jackson for the Hateful Eight)).

I predict three of the five will be films no one has ever heard of/even mentioned yet.

Ribs wrote:With outside chances for Creed, Star Wars, and Spectre (I think Creed is incredibly unlikely, but there is a chance it's legitimate being made as more than a money-grab; Skyfall just barely missed out on a nomination and the leaked script is plenty "artsy" enough in addition to the action to get some nominations if it comes together well (and I think Christoph Waltz will likely end up with a Supporting Actor bid; he's the go-to man in that category and the only thing that could stop him is if he personally doesn't want to stop the chances of Samuel L. Jackson for the Hateful Eight)).

At first I thought you were talking about "Assassin's Creed". That might have a chance at the 89th Oscars; it'll be a period piece after all. I think "Creed" will bomb critically and financially. I don't know about "Spectre" I didn't like "Skyfall" but people were really pushing for that to get nominated for Best Picture.

One film nobody has mentioned yet that I believe will be one of the Oscar contenders for 2015 is Brooklyn, starring Saoirse Ronan and with a screenplay by Nick Hornby. It received almost unanimous praise at Sundance and was acquired by Fox Searchlight for $9 million. A November 6th release date was recently announced, which also places it firmly in the Oscar arena.

Dylan wrote:One film nobody has mentioned yet that I believe will be one of the Oscar contenders for 2015 is Brooklyn, starring Saoirse Ronan and with a screenplay by Nick Hornby. It received almost unanimous praise at Sundance and was acquired by Fox Searchlight for $9 million. A November 6th release date was recently announced, which also places it firmly in the Oscar arena.

This video mentions "Brooklyn" as a possible contender. I think that "Brooklyn" might get nominated, it seems Oscar baity enough.