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I know! It's crazy early to be thinking about this, but the foreign language entries have been announced (though I can't find a news story with the whole listing just yet). These are the ones I know about and will update later:

Canada: Water (Deepa Mehta)
Denmark: After the Wedding (Susanne Bier)
Germany: The Lives of Others [Das Leben der Anderen] (Florian Henckel von Donnersmarck)
Finland: Lights in the Dusk (Aki Kaurismaki)
South Korea: The King and the Clown (Lee Jun-Ik)
Australia: Ten Canoes (Rolf de Heer & Peter Djigirr)
Netherlands: Black Book [Zwartboek] (Paul Verhoeven)
Philippines: Ang Pagdadalaga ni Maximo Oliveros (Auraeus Solito)
Mexico: Pan's Labyrinth (Guillermo del Toro)
Spain: Volver (Pedro Almodovar)

Algeria: Days of Glory [Indigènes] (Rachid Bouchareb)
Belgium: Someone Else's Happiness (Fien Troch)
Bosnia-Herzegovina: Grbavica (Jasmila Zbanic)
Brazil: Movies, Aspirin, and Vultures (Marcelo Gomes)
Chile: The Bed [En La Cama] (Matias Bize)
Colombia: Soñar no cuesta nada (Rodrigo Triana)
Cuba: El Benny (Jorge Luis Sánchez)
Egypt: The Yacoubian Building (Marwan Hamed)
France: Orchestra Seats (Danièle Thompson)
Greece: Chariton's Choir (Grigoris Karantinakis)
Iceland: Children (Ragnar Bragason)
India: Rang de Basati (Rakeysh Omprakash)
Japan: Hula Girls (Lee Sang-il)
Luxembourg: My Name is Justine (Franco de Pena)
Peru: Madeinusa (Claudia Llosa)
Poland: Retreival [Zodzysku] (Slawomira Fabickiego)
Romania: How I Spent the End of the World (Catalin Mitulescu)
Slovenia: Gravehopping (Jan Cvitkovic)
Sweden: Falkenberg Farewell (Jesper Ganslandt)
Switzerland: Vitus (Fredi M Murer)
Turkey: Ice Cream, I Scream [Dondurmam Gaymak] (Yüksel Aksu)
Venezuela: Maroa (Solveig Hoogesteijn)
Vietnam: Pao's Story [Chuyen cua Pao] (Bui Thac Chuyen)

(Jeff provided most of these)

. . . and here's an early prediction for the best movie category (a la The Full Monty): Little Miss Sunshine

(Understand, this is only my prediction, not an indication of what I think deserves the recognition, for I haven't seen many. However, I did enjoy it quite a bit.)

I have little or no real input I can give to this since I've only seen three of this year's theatrical releases so far, but I wouldn't be surprised if some acting nods were given out to Inside Man*coughCliveOwen* or Prairie Home Companion.

flyonthewall2983 wrote:I have little or no real input I can give to this since I've only seen three of this year's theatrical releases so far, but I wouldn't be surprised if some acting nods were given out to Inside Man*coughCliveOwen* or Prairie Home Companion.

I liked Inside Man and Prairie Home Companion a lot too, but neither one of them have much of a chance for Oscar glory. For my money, this guy has the best analysis of the Oscar breakdown. Be sure to check out his guide to the foreign submissions.

Matt wrote:Germany: The Lives of Others [Das Leben der Anderen] (Florian Henckel von Donnersmarck)
Australia: Ten Canoes (Rolf de Heer & Peter Djigirr)

Both of these are excellent.

best visual effects: The Science of Sleep

I hope science of sleep and gondry win everything they are eligible for.

Jeff wrote:For my money, this guy has the best analysis of the Oscar breakdown. Be sure to check out his guide to the foreign submissions.

It's an interesting list but I don't think things will work out that way. Volver is nominated in a number of categories outside foreign film, which I don't think will happen at all - maybe one other category and perhaps for Cruz, and while there are a couple of mentions of United 93 and World Trade Centre I think that is where the real action will be as Hollywood can pay tribute. Without having seen either I can hazard an opinion that United 93 is probably better, but World Trade Centre will sweep the board with Best Film, Cage as Best Actor (who I predict will better Halle Berry by getting best actor and worst actor at the Razzies the same year for The Wicker Man), and perhaps Stone as Best Director judging by the way he is being talked up as being surprisingly restrained, so all the more conservative voters won't feel threatened giving him an award for this one. United 93 might get one of the technical awards, sound perhaps. Children of Men seems too left wing and non-America based to get anything more than nominations, same with Babel.

Supporting Actor for Affleck? Since Hollywoodland is being seen as his best performance so far and people might be worried that he might slump again and it will become his only good performance?

Supporting Actress - a battle between Mirren and Streep with only one obvious winner, Mirr- I mean Streep! (though I predict Mirren will do a one minute cameo in a Hollywood film playing the Queen the next year and win the Oscar posthumously! )

Foreign film would seem to be between Volver and the Verhoeven film, and I'd bet Verhoeven will get it, whatever the film is like, but this feeling will only get stronger the more war, personal experience, 'Pianist'-styled the film seems to become.

Having suggested all this I should admit I've seen none of the films so far, but I'm looking forward to looking back on this Oscar time to see how badly wrong I was - after all I got caught up in the Brokeback Mountain hype last year which dulled my cyncism for a moment!

Although I'd go with all the above, the only winner I would absolutely guarantee would be the animated feature going to Cars. It might not be as good as the other Pixars, but the rest of the animated films this year, barring a big surprise, didn't even get near it.

I'll wait for "The DaColbert Code" for my Oscar predictions.

It was right the last time.

Len wrote:I'll wait for "The DaColbert Code" for my Oscar predictions.

It was right the last time.

Word!

colinr0380 wrote:Foreign film would seem to be between Volver and the Verhoeven film, and I'd bet Verhoeven will get it, whatever the film is like, but this feeling will only get stronger the more war, personal experience, 'Pianist'-styled the film seems to become.

I am very much looking to Showgirl's List...er, Black Book, but if it turns out to be more Showgirls than Schindler, I don't think that the Academy will go for it. The old farts who making up the majority of the voting block aren't as interested in graphic depictions of girls who dye their pubic hair to escape Nazis as I am. If it's as good as everyone says, and if it indeed has a Pianist-like feel to it, the Academy may surprise me.

You are correct that Volver shows up way to often on that site. Nathaniel, the guy who runs it, seems to have a bit of a hard-on for Almodóvar. If Spain submits it though (which isn't a done deal), I think that it has the best overall shot at "best foreign-language film." I suspect that we may see Pan's Labyrinth, The Lives of Others, and Curse of the Golden Flower in the running too. AMPAS would also love the PR of having Aborigines show up at the ceremony, so maybe they'll pick Ten Canoes. It looks like a good year in the foreign category.

Just because Verhoeven has cast two of the most beautiful actresses in the netherlands doesn't make it showgirls. They are hollands most talented actresses as well, you won't see Carice van Houten or Halina Reijn in Saved By the Bell (or the dutch equivalent: Costa). O and about the comparison between the pianist and Schindler's, from what I've heard it's notjing like the two. The interesting thing of Black book is of course that this might be the first film about WII that pictures everybody, Jew, Nazi, Resistance and collaborator as both right and wrong at the same time, Verhoeven is way too cynical to be compared to the sentimentalism of Spielberg and the honest emotions that seem to drive Polanski's film (for lack of a better word)..... I haven't seen it yet, so dunno if it works though...

As for Oscar potential, I haven't seen the film yet, but I think it doesn't have the originality & Old World charm needed for a winner, that other dutch winners Antonia, Karakter and the Aanslag hseem to have. On the other hand, the commercial machine here has been spinning on top speed for about a month now, and despite the overkill, I still feel the desperate need to go and visit it. Zwartboek and van Warmerdam's Ober of course

Jeff wrote:I suspect that we may see Pan's Labyrinth, The Lives of Others, and Curse of the Golden Flower in the running too.

It's not official yet, but Curse of the Golden Flower is more or less a lock for China's entry -- Monkeypeaches is reporting that it's playing at a single theater in Beijing for the express purpose of qualifying it for the Oscars. Whether it'll make the final five is up in the air (Monkeypeaches claims the reaction in China is good, which is more than can be said for The Promise, but I'm thinking the Academy might be burned out on films like these). And I'm wondering if Pan's Labyrinth might run up against the Academy's country-of-origin rules, seeing how it was set and made in Spain with what seems to be a mostly Spanish cast and crew -- I know they've changed the language rules, but have they changed the "creative personnel" rules as well?

Pan's Labyrinth will be Mexico's Oscar entry.

wasn't it made in the US though?

SncDthMnky wrote:wasn't it made in the US though?

The Academy guidelines for the foreign submissions make about as much sense to me as the Digital Millenium Copyright Act, but I think the film was actually made in Spain. And funded with French, American, Russian, Turkish, and Singaporean money. And the cast is mostly Spanish. But the writer/director's Mexican!

Here are the rules for foreign submissions. Matt is correct; it looks like rule number three is the one that makes this a Mexican film.

1. The film must be first released in the country submitting the film no earlier than October 1, 2005 and no later than September 30, 2006, and be first publicly exhibited by means of 35mm or 70mm film for a run of at least seven consecutive days in a commercial motion picture theater for the profit of the producer and exhibitor, advertised and exploited during the run in a manner considered normal and customary to the industry. The picture need not have been released in the United States.

2. The recording of the original dialogue track as well as the completed film must be predominantly in a language or languages other than English. Accurate English subtitles are required.

3. The submitting country must certify that creative talent of that country exercised artistic control of the film.

4. The Academy will make the final determination in all questions of eligibility.

Hong Kong is nominating The Banquet, which is interesting since it seems to be more of a mainland production than anything. I wonder how it will fare under the Academy's rule #3 quoted above. Taiwan is going with Blue Cha Cha, which is rather less adventurous than last year's pick (The Wayward Cloud) and probably has an equal chance of making the final five.

Imdb says mexico, usa and spain for the countries that Pan's Labyrinth was made in, but based on those rules posted, it couldn't be spains entry, since del toro is mexican, and it couldn't be mexico's entry, cuase it ran for a week straight in spain before it did in mexico. I guess we'll see.

I think the first part of #1 is saying that the first release in the home country must take place between those dates, not necessarily that the first release must be in the home country. Then again, my fluency in legalese is probably up for question as well.

-Toilet Dcuk

toiletduck! wrote:I think the first part of #1 is saying that the first release in the home country must take place between those dates, not necessarily that the first release must be in the home country.

I believe that the dcuk is correct.

Spain has just submitted Volver as their entry.

Jeff wrote:Spain has just submitted Volver as their entry.

Provided the Academy actually pick the right 5 films, this could actually be an interesting race to watch.

Matt wrote:

Jeff wrote:Spain has just submitted Volver as their entry.

Provided the Academy actually pick the right 5 films, this could actually be an interesting race to watch.

I agree. And I'm practically sure that whoever wins the Best Film Oscar for the american side of things, will not be as exciting as the ones in the Foreign Film category.

Here's the Czech entry.

A brave choice, to say the least, but something tells me that this is the longest of long shots!

(Which has no bearing on the merits of the film itself, needless to say).

Customs. But with this shit between Ahmadinejad & Bush even that's hazy & vague now. Call first before you go. But please hurry.