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In a couple of years we'll be buying a digital file including everything and not have to worry about format, books, shelfspace, the enviroment, etc. I'm getting used to the thought as my DVD's take up too much space and I already rip my DVD's with ShrinkDVD and transfer the iso file to my Popcorn Hour for playback. With my current internet connection it would take me 40 minutes to download a DVD and 160 minutes downloading a BluRay. No UPS service can beat that. My connection will soon be 4 times faster making downloads even more attractive. Until then I wish for as many releases as possible where they include everything on the disc so I won't have to buy yet another shelf. I do agree books make the package look sexy and more exclusive but when is the last time anyone paid you interest on that account? Glancing my DVD shelf I find the Second Run section much sexier to look at and it consist of regular packings only. Sorry for going off topic!

hammock wrote:In a couple of years we'll be buying a digital file including everything and not have to worry about format, books, shelfspace, the enviroment, etc. I'm getting used to the thought as my DVD's take up too much space and I already rip my DVD's with ShrinkDVD and transfer the iso file to my Popcorn Hour for playback. With my current internet connection it would take me 40 minutes to download a DVD and 160 minutes downloading a BluRay. No UPS service can beat that. My connection will soon be 4 times faster making downloads even more attractive. Until then I wish for as many releases as possible where they include everything on the disc so I won't have to buy yet another shelf. I do agree books make the package look sexy and more exclusive but when is the last time anyone paid you interest on that account? Glancing my DVD shelf I find the Second Run section much sexier to look at and it consist of regular packings only. Sorry for going off topic!

As appealing as some of that sounds (in a way), not so sure I'm for that... Just lost a hard drive the other day.

And while you may be able to download a BluRay in 160/4 minutes, most people will not. 25GB a pop, say (to be generous), of disk space to store the download on top of that. So you need to have a 1TB drive for every 40 films you want to save... 20 bucks a download, 200 bucks for a drive, another 200 bucks to back it up. I'll go for the shiny disk every time.

The other stumbling block in the "everybody will download everything" future, is the move of ISPs toward download caps/insane overage charges.

Hard drive space? In 2-3 years (or even less) you will have free online storage serving all your needs and be able to stream from them. The world is changing rapidly. ISP's are lowering their prices here on a monthly basis, no download limits and we get better and better bandwith on top of that. Competition is fierce. I'll keep buying DVD's and BluRays for a while but it makes no sense since I'm already ripping everything and the day when CC and other labels start offering downloads will be the end of my ever expanding shelf. They could even offer "Movie Only" versions or let you choose what you want in your file(s), like subs, intro, book material, cover etc. so that you only download what you want.

hammock wrote:The world is changing rapidly. ISP's are lowering their prices here on a monthly basis, no download limits and we get better and better bandwith on top of that. Competition is fierce.

Comcast announced caps for residential users beginning Oct. 1. Time Warner and AT&T are currently looking into "metered" pay structures.

There is no way that telecom providers aren't going to want a piece of the pie of digital delivery of media/entertainment.

hammock wrote:The world is changing rapidly. ISP's are lowering their prices here on a monthly basis, no download limits and we get better and better bandwith on top of that. Competition is fierce.

been getting high-speed internet for about 7 years now. never once saw a price decrease. Plenty of increases though...

The day they offer real-time downloads of blu-ray quality films to my house for a couple bucks a pop is the day I give it a try.

[They just updated my broadband bandwidth to 5Mbps... had been maxed out at 3Mbps for several years (I was surprised they finally got around to it, they didn't even bother to send an email this time) ... although I may downgrade back to 3Mbps and save 10 bucks a month]

redbill wrote:

hammock wrote:The world is changing rapidly. ISP's are lowering their prices here on a monthly basis, no download limits and we get better and better bandwith on top of that. Competition is fierce.

been getting high-speed internet for about 7 years now. never once saw a price decrease. Plenty of increases though...

Really? Over here competition is fierce, as Hammock said. When I moved into my apartment two and a half years ago I started out with a small 512/128 Kb connection. Now I have a 10/2 Mb connection AND I pay about $20 less than I did back then. I pay $55 a month with no strings attached, but I could definitely find it cheaper if I were to shop around for a new ISP.

psufootball07 wrote:I have yet to make a transition even though I own a 45 inch HD Samsung because in part I am unsure if Blu-Ray even has the staying power and it itself wont be replaced in the next 5 years. Who knows.

I could possibly see BluRay failing if a better, cheaper format presented itself... But that's not on the radar. We knew about HDDVD and BluRay years before they started publishing titles - there doesn't seem to be anything else in the works right now that is seriously being considered as a new format. And now that the competition is gone (HDDVD), there isn't really a good reason why it would be replaced anytime soon.

I think you're safe for at least five years.

sopordave wrote:

psufootball07 wrote:I have yet to make a transition even though I own a 45 inch HD Samsung because in part I am unsure if Blu-Ray even has the staying power and it itself wont be replaced in the next 5 years. Who knows.

I could possibly see BluRay failing if a better, cheaper format presented itself... But that's not on the radar. We knew about HDDVD and BluRay years before they started publishing titles - there doesn't seem to be anything else in the works right now that is seriously being considered as a new format. And now that the competition is gone (HDDVD), there isn't really a good reason why it would be replaced anytime soon.

I think you're safe for at least five years.

Thing is, we've also been hearing about Digital Downloads for years (word was, at the time, that Microsoft wasn't even particularly interested in HDDVD, they just saw it as a place-holder until Digital Downloads arrived (and, there were even a few new releases (Babylon 5 Lost Tales comes to mind) that were released in High Definition exclusive on X-Box marketplace (part of a deal Microsoft had at the time, to start pushing the format)

The other thing about digital downloads, in times of popularity with the consumers, is the piracy aspect.
If the digital downloads are too expensive, or have too much DRM, then that same technology (which, I think, is already in pretty much every computer sold today (strong enough CPU, at least a 720p screen, etc.) can just as easily be used for piracy. (I know pretty much everyone here is EXTREMELY anti-piracy, but everyone here is definitely not the average consumer.

Even ignoring the simple idea of "Blu-Ray vs Pirate Downloads" as a market struggle, the thing with digital downloads is that legitimate ones have to more directly compete with Piracy (which might force the legitimate suppliers into being more reasonable for the DRM, prices, etc. Look at mp3 downloads.... The legal ones were originally filled with ridiculous amounts of DRM, and then simply could not compete with pirated mp3s, so the producers had to lighten up on the DRM)
I haven't really done studies here, but I THINK for the average person "legally purchased" or "supporting the producers" is only one of many factors. It's definitely a good thing (legally buying content) so is getting it at a reasonable price and getting it without too many (DRM) inconveniences.
If I'm right about that being the basic mentality for the vast number of consumers.... I think it's reasonable to say that, once broadband is sufficient, Blu-Ray will get a lot of competition (either from piracy, or legitimate downloads forced into DRM-free reasonable prices because of piracy)

When digital downloads do arrive (and they will, it will just take longer than anticipated), it will be a good thing for the environment. No use of plastics to make those physical objects, no use of gas to go to the store or have the delivery truck come to you. Some trade-offs (materials to go into drives, electricity creation) but I think these will be outweighed by the gains. But I think it will be 2010 or so before downloading everything will really be a force. But so many people already download TV episodes. And most people don't care about higher levels of playback quality - look at the death of SACD. But there might be economies for smaller loads of higher quality - such as vinyl production rising these days while CDs die. In the same, way, standard DVDs will die out but Blu Ray might live. But that probably won't be until at least 2012.

I wish you had taken more thorough notes during your recent trip to the future.

swo17 wrote:I wish you had taken more thorough notes during your recent trip to the future.

Thanks for another great post, swo17. I guess you really put Adam in his place. Your wit has made my day, my week, my life. You are my new god. May I tell you how much I love you? You contribute so much. I wish your post count were double, triple, sextuple. You are hot, too, at least in my relatively feeble imagination. I love you from afar.

Sorry sarcastic poster but Swo's post was funny. Although I guess he forgot the first rule of Criterion Forum Dot Org: You are not allowed to be actually-funny, you are only allowed to be "funny" in that overwritten three paragraphs of bodily functions and onomatopoeias way. I GUESS BETTER LUCK NEXT TIME

domino harvey wrote:Sorry sarcastic poster but Swo's post was funny.

Even if Domino is the only one who gets my joke, I still consider it a success.

yoshimori wrote:I wish your post count were double, triple, sextuple.

I'll get right to work on this! Thanks for your support!

Ok, here's a serious rebuttal to Adam.

I'm not sure why many people are touting digital delivery as some sort of savior for the environment and as the end all of purchasing films.

1. Digital Delivery Will Be Expensive - Why? Because it will require every major studio to overhaul and introduce an entirely new infrastructure. Consumers will pay for it. Also, as mentioned elsewhere on this board, ISPs aren't going to make it cheap for everyone start downloading. Furthermore, smaller studios or DVD labels (ie. Criterion) simply do not have the financial or physical infrastructure to put that kind of delivery method in place. It's one thing to manufacture a different kind of disc. It's another to change your entire business model.

2. Not Everybody Downloads And Watches TV and Movies - Going to digital delivery will require not only require the majority of households to have broadband, decent computers and hard drive space, it will also require a complete change in how they consume media. I think in these arguments we tend to forget that HDTV, BR and iPod touches (or other fancy video players) are all tremendously niche markets. If DVD isn't going to die out completely for another five or ten years, digital delivery is a long way off. Also, while young people watch media on their computers, most people don't. Even I download video, burn it, and watch it in my living room rather than my cluttered office (and computer desk).

3. People Like Physical Objects - There is a reason Warner (and every other studio) keeps cranking out stupid box sets - they sell. Don't know what to get that guy who just bought a new house and a TV? How about I Am Legend with a whole bunch of collectible crap in the box? I would argue that people have yet to see the value of a digital download. There is a reason why Steve Jobs keeps fighting to songs on iTunes at 99 cents.

4. Digital Delivery Is Not Green - More servers, more computers, more tiny screens made in China = not green.

hammock wrote:Hard drive space? In 2-3 years (or even less) you will have free online storage serving all your needs and be able to stream from them. The world is changing rapidly. ISP's are lowering their prices here on a monthly basis, no download limits and we get better and better bandwith on top of that. Competition is fierce. I'll keep buying DVD's and BluRays for a while but it makes no sense since I'm already ripping everything and the day when CC and other labels start offering downloads will be the end of my ever expanding shelf. They could even offer "Movie Only" versions or let you choose what you want in your file(s), like subs, intro, book material, cover etc. so that you only download what you want.

Yeah, but if you only have access to your movie via online storage, it takes a lot longer to retrieve it than, say, pulling a DVD off your shelf and popping it in your player.

The most hilarious part of all this is that, even though you're paying for your own storage, the movie studios want to charge more for downloads on the ground of "convenience." It's absurd. That said, eventually digital downloads will be the way things go. I still have my doubts about Blu-ray's ability to really take hold beyond the niche of cineastes and technophiles. That's not to say I won't eventually buy one, but I had a laserdisc player. I don't see Blu replacing DVDs for the everyday consumer.

I think swo17's post was funny as well. Fortunately, i did take excellent notes in my visit to the future; otherwise I wouldn't have wasted your time with my post.

But as to serious replies...

I don't think Digital Downloads will be "green" in an absolute sense (but then, no consumption is); I said (although not well) that they will be greener than the alternative - the continued manufacture & delivery of physical objects. Compare the size of one hard drive on your desk compared to a few shelves full of plastic objects.

You are correct, not everyone will download, but of course I wasn't talking about people who are going to films in theatres mostly (a group of which I am a member), more about home consumption.

I disagree with your view that it requires a "whole new infrastructure." Sure, there needs to be continued upgrading of the "pipes" that take information to homes, but that is already happening. Those costs are being amortized and covered by consumers already over a period of years. Consumers won't discern a massive increase in costs to them on a monthly basis, which is how most people think of such things. The studios will have to make appropriate high quality MPEGs of the digitized versions of each film, but that's not such a big deal - they are already doing this with TV shows.

As to people liking objects - one of my points was that there would be two levels - downloads, and boutique physical objects. Objects wouldn't go away, but downloads will be far far more prevalent. And I said it would be a few years in the future. Let's resume the conversation in 2011 or 2012 (tis, true, I only visited 2010 in my trip to the future).

I like having a physical object to correlate with the films I buy. Sometimes I sleep with some of my nicer Criterion digipaks like they're teddy bears.

karmajuice wrote:I like having a physical object to correlate with the films I buy. Sometimes I sleep with some of my nicer Criterion digipaks like they're teddy bears.

My Hitchcock masterpiece set is a fuzzy little comfort when I'm sleeping all alone in the big city.

hammock wrote:........Sorry for going off topic!

Your argument for "having seen the future" seems to be based mainly around the fact that you dont want to buy any more shelves.

karmajuice wrote:I like having a physical object to correlate with the films I buy. Sometimes I sleep with some of my nicer Criterion digipaks like they're teddy bears.

Sometimes I buy just for the packaging! Maybe digital downloads will come with a holographic packaging that you can project off your monitor whenever you feel nostalgic. I don't know much about computers.

godardslave wrote:

hammock wrote:........Sorry for going off topic!

Your argument for "having seen the future" seems to be based mainly around the fact that you don't want to buy any more shelves.

That combined with the fact that nzb's are posted before I even get my pre-ordered DVD's. It was supposed to be the other way around. It was the illegal filesharing that speeded up the availability of digital music and unless the movie industry want to do the same mistakes the music industry did they are forced to come up with digital affordable solutions very fast.

I think there's a big difference though between music and movies when it comes to this issue. I can make a high quality rip of an album that takes up, let's say about 100 MB of hard drive space. I primarily want to listen to music when I'm on the go, so it's a matter of great convenience to be able to put a large music library on an MP3 player and have access to it at work, during my commute, on vacation, etc.

With movies, on the other hand, a high quality DVD rip takes up, what, a couple GB? (And much more for a Blu-ray rip.) And while I might be willing to watch some things on a portable video player, I definitely want to have a nice home theater setup to watch most things. And of course, this nicer setup is going to be a lot less forgiving of any digital artefacts--all the more reason to compress video files less and less.

Will someone just phone John Titor? He'll tell us the answer.