Blu-ray, in General

[jedgeco]

As for this war, I have to recommend everyone buy into both formats.

And just give the jokers prolonging this war an incentive to keep doing so? No thanks; I'll live without Universal titles for the time being. The status quo is quagmire: fewer people will adopt HD disc technology, while at the same time studios will lose their best DVD customers who will abstain from buying SD DVDs in anticipation of buying an HD format.... whenever the format war gets ironed out.

I'd be surprised if the "TotalHD" HD/BD combo disc ever gets released.

I firmly disagree with such a comment (Popcorn Tree?)!

In fact, a month or so ago I specifically wrote at DVDTALK that we have reached "the point" where any further prolongation of this war would hurt the credibility of the Hi-Def format(s). My comment was greeted with sarcasm and statements such as "what is it about this point, etc, etc"...and "look how far down the prices have gone", etc. The reality is that there is such a powerful silent majority of consumers who are not likely to purchase a Hi-Def player (let alone two as you suggest) until a winner emerges that any further delay will only doom the two current rivals.
Recent events, regardless of what side of the fence you peek through, have proven precisely that! Consumers are confused, retailers are confused, and I am quite certain the studios are as well.

I have chosen my format. It is my conviction that only one format can be adopted by the masses. As it is my conviction that a niche-status for the Hi-Def format(s) will all along hurt those of us who feel passionate about it/them.

Agree 100%.

[Luke M]

As for this war, I have to recommend everyone buy into both formats. .

I firmly disagree with such a comment (Popcorn Tree?)!

Yup, it's me! I think that HD will always be a niche format until the day a studio gets bold and doesn't release any new releases in DVD anymore. Even if there was only one format it would still be for a small majority. If every studio went neutral then the entertainment world would simply be like the videogame world. Do I want to play my games on PS3 or 360?

I think two formats could exist just fine as long as exclusives are abandoned by both formats. I can certainly understand your argument but I just don't see HD ever over taking DVD.

[Darth Lavender]

Here's the one way I can see HD actually overtaking DVD in about one or two years... Computers are constantly getting more powerful, and soon enough a cheap, bottom of the line computer will have more than enough CPU power, etc. to support HD.

Once that happens, it's going to be pretty easy to convince any serious DVD buyer to get a cheap HD - drive (even the X-Box drive (if Microsoft ever improves it's marketing*) a yet-to-be-released model of cheap HDDVD drive or, perhaps, one day, a Bluray drive that actually plays those 'copyprotected' Bluray movies

I know some people who are still on VHS, they just want to watch TV and occasionally tape something. Others have probably only upgraded to DVD because they can't rent VHS anymore, and/or replacing the old broken VHS was just as costly as a cheap DVD player (and/or video-game system.) But, I think a pretty significant portion of DVD buyers (say, people who buy more than 1 disk per month,) will be upgrading when the HD-drives become a simple and viable option.
I've shown my HDs to people who are by no means videophiles, and they have all been quite astounded by the picture (usually commenting on how 'three-dimensional' it looks.) (In case anyone is curious, my showcase DVD is usually "Chronos" just because the whole thing is magnificient imagery. Something like "Hulk" one really has to fast-forward to specific shots that really show off the detail) So, I'm pretty confident that once HD becomes just a $100 or even $200 add-on for the computer, we'll really see it settle into the mainstream.


*I think, by far, Microsoft's biggest marketing blunder here has been there failure to capitalise on the X-Box Drive's use as a PC drive. It may have been a calculated loss (to make the 'X-Box' seem more impressive, etc.) but the format could have been immensely more popular if Microsoft had simply advertised the thing as a HD-player. (Heck, when I bought my computer and HD-Drive, the salesperson was genuinely surprised at the concept.)

[Cinesimilitude]

Survey Says!

[davebert]

Yeah, but...

Facebook...

I mean...

Clearly whichever format releases Boondock Saints first could really turn the tides of war.

[arsonfilms]

Darth Lavender makes an excellent point. My first DVD player was installed in my PC, at a time when DVD players were still pretty pricey ($200!! Can you IMAGINE?!?), but a DVD drive made practical sense (my computer screen was bigger than my TV, and DVD-ROMs were the way to go).

All through college I worked for Borders, and was still getting complaints about us not selling VHS tapes long after VHS stopped being manufactured. I remember many people were incredibly upset by the thought that they would have to buy a new player (in addition to their old VCR), and that the lack of new material for their old VCR put a tangible life expectency on their existing collections and equipment. I mention this, because I can never discuss the HD format war without thinking of these people, because not only would they have to buy a new player - they'd have to buy a new TV.

Of course, to think that someone who would balk at buying a $100 player would buy a $1200 TV is absurd. The greatest benefit to DVD is that at this point, you can watch it on anything - a laptop, a TV, a car - and a new player could run you $50. Until one of the HD formats allows for that kind of access, it will remain a niche market (I'm an industry professional, and even now the only people I know who have bought in are people I've met online). The fact that one of the formats still hasn't even won out yet is even further hampering the chances of anything happening, since the casual consumer can't even take it seriously. I watched SACD and DVD Audio fail miserably a few years ago, and I'm a little worried the same thing will happen to the HD formats.

[pro-bassoonist]

Luke: Since I agree with most everything you point out but see it as "improbable" I urge you to read this excellent article which was just published. It just about sums up everything I would write here as a reply to your thoughts.

Please note that this piece isn't sponsored, promoted, or inspired by any of the two HD camps. It de facto addresses what the "specific point" is that I mentioned to you earlier.

Yours,
S

[denti alligator]

I read somewhere (can't find it now-- actually, just too lazy) that Universal will release Psycho and North By Northwest on HD DVD by the end of the year. Reason enough to go with HD over Blu-ray.

I am loving my A20. I'm also surprised at how many HD DVDs are out there that I'm eager own. I only wish the international market would step up and give us even more, though Elephant Man and Arizona Dream are a good start.

[pmunger]

Isn't North by Northwest a WB title?

[MichaelB]

Isn't North by Northwest a WB title?

It was actually made by MGM - Warner distributed it when they acquired the relevant back catalogue, but this announcement suggests that North By Northwest has changed hands. (Or that Universal has sub-licensed it)

[Gigi M.]

Isn't North by Northwest a WB title?

It was actually made by MGM - Warner distributed it when they acquired the relevant back catalogue, but this announcement suggests that North By Northwest has changed hands. (Or that Universal has sub-licensed it)

Of course not. Warner has confirmed that North by Northwest in HD is coming soon.

[Eclisse]

Sitting out is fine as long as you don't plan on purchasing any new DVDs that are also available in HD-DVD/Blu-Ray. Why buy the Kubrick DVDs when you'll want to upgrade in the future? And you will, the image quality is significantly better.

That's exactly how I feel about it. A few months ago I was ready to buy a player but since I didn't have money to spare,I decided to invest the little money I had on my new Telecaster.No regrets. I always thought that the Kubrick collection would make me do it.I also made the mistake of selling my Kubricks on ebay a while back.So, it's something I really wanted.NO WAY I'm buying the standard DVD collection.And I am making a sacrifice with new purchases in general. I'm only buying indispensable Criterions and things that I feel will take a long time to be on HD/or stuff where I feel the improvements will have limited or no effect over me.(Like Warners Film Noir 4 and Myrna Loy and William Powell Collection) And as far as recent(sometimes old)-COLOR-movies go,I'm totally out of it for sometime now.I don't even have The Departed yet.

Maybe this (both HD and Blu-Ray) is not the "real deal".Maybe in 2 years they will find something they will agree on it.And make you buy all over again.I remember the amount of money I spent on LDs.I don't want to do that again.I want a clear winner by Knockout.Maybe it will not happen and I'm asking too much.

[jedgeco]

That's exactly how I feel about it. ... And as far as recent (sometimes old)-COLOR-movies go,I'm totally out of it for sometime now.I don't even have The Departed yet.

You're not alone. How the studios think that alienating their best customers with uncertainty is a good idea is beyond me. Two years ago, I was buying 10+ discs a month. Now? One, maybe three on a huge month.

[denti alligator]

In the 2007 HTF chat Warner said Branagh's Hamlet and Poltergeist would be coming to SD, HD and BD at the same time. It doesn't seem this is happening. I wonder why...

[pro-bassoonist]

A quick post:

Studio Canal have just gone neutral, releasing in Blu as well.

Ciao,
Pro-B

[Darth Lavender]

In the 2007 HTF chat Warner said Branagh's Hamlet and Poltergeist would be coming to SD, HD and BD at the same time. It doesn't seem this is happening. I wonder why...

Warner did something similar with "Alexander" which is only just coming out on HD. Pity they don't have the common courtesy and/or common sense, to tell their customers in advance that there will still be a HD.

I'm waiting, anyway. Basically, all the SD releases I buy are films which I'm not terribly interested in seeing in HD. But, Hamlet, being one of the very rare films both recent and shot in 70mm is well worth waiting for.

[Gigi M.]

Why Blu-Ray Should Never Have Existed

A strong cup of coffee if your heart beats for Blu by Rob Enderle, President and Principal Analyst of the Enderle Group.

His latest article deals with the many problems Blu-ray seem to have as a technology. He joins the many analysts that now believe that "all it (Blu-ray) is doing is ensuring HD-DVD doesn´t win either."

He also states that "(The Author) didn´t realize until too late that rather than the PlayStation assuring the success of Blu-Ray, Blu-Ray assured the failure of the PS3."

If you have the stomach for it here is the full article.

About the Author:
Rob is President and Principal Analyst of the Enderle Group, a forward looking emerging technology advisory firm, and one of the most recognized commentators on tech. Before founding the Enderle Group, Rob held leading positions with Forrester Research and the Giga Information Group.

[Cinesimilitude]

Gigi, that is an excellent article, thanks for posting it.

And here's a pretty level headed look at why HD-DVD could still win the war.

[Gigi M.]

Gigi, that is an excellent article, thanks for posting it.

And here's a pretty level headed look at why HD-DVD could still win the war.

I'd guess this is best argument that anyone has ever said about the war so far:

Why, then, have Blu-ray discs lately been outselling HD DVD versions by two to one? Because Sony cannily included a Blu-ray player in its latest video-game console, PlayStation 3. And while PS3 has not met expectations of selling 6m consoles in America, some 1.4m have nevertheless been snapped up since their launch last November. Market researchers reckon that most—90% by some reckoning—of Blu-ray discs are played on PS3 consoles. But Hollywood's studios now realise they can't pin the future of their precious video sales (today one of their main sources of revenue) on a game console that has failed to ignite widespread interest outside a dedicated circle of hard-core gamers.

[Antoine Doinel]

The war is only going to be "won" when these two things happen:

1) Studios start using the extra space on HD-DVD or BluRay discs to create truly alluring extras. While there have been some discs that have offered some unique extras, this needs to happen more often and the extras need to be in high-def too, not just the feature.

AND

2) An affordable (ie. under $150) standalone player. Instead of buying out Paramount, HD-DVD should've bought out a manufacturer instead, covering their initial losses in rolling out the first affordable next-gen player and that would've won them the war hands down. The studios would've uniformly switched to HD-DVD in a heartbeat.

Right now, the average DVD buyer has no reason to invest in next-gen. They haven't been given a good enough reason to upgrade to the high-def discs let alone enough incentive to buy a player.

[jedgeco]

I'd guess this is best argument that anyone has ever said about the war so far:

Best argument? It's conclusion...

But Hollywood's studios now realise they can't pin the future of their precious video sales (today one of their main sources of revenue) on a game console that has failed to ignite widespread interest outside a dedicated circle of hard-core gamers.

... simply doesn't follow at all. There's no evidence that the PS3 is only being purchased by "a dedicated circle of hard-core gamers." (I have one, and don't consider myself a gamer, let alone a hard core one.)

It's also belied by his own data: "90% ... of Blu-ray discs are being played* on PS3 consoles." A recent survey showed that about 20% of PS3 owners were using the machine as a BD player. (~280K.) If it were true that 90% of the ~2.2M discs sold were bought by PS3 owners, that's a little over 7 discs a piece, leaving only about 2.2 discs each for the 100K or so stand alone BD owners. So one of two things is true: This guy's numbers don't add up, or the PS3 is a remarkable driver of disc sales for the people using it as a BD player.

(Yes, I realize he's left himself some wiggle room by using the word "played" as opposed to "purchased.")

[Luke M]

But don't standalone HD-DVD players outsell standalone BD players?

[jedgeco]

But don't standalone HD-DVD players outsell standalone BD players?

Yes, but that's not nearly as interesting as knowing how many people are actually using each format. The PS3 is the X factor, and nobody knows how to treat it. Knowing how many PS3s are being used primarily as BD players would let you do an "apples-to-apples" comparison of the number of machines being used to play back each format. The 20% number I cited above is the only attempt that I know of, but the survey sample size was (IIRC) small. It shouldn't be hard to do, and frankly, I'm surprised that nobody has done it.

With a proper survey, we could say that "1 PS3 = N standalone players" (N likely being less than 1). Then we would have an idea of how many people are using each format.

[pro-bassoonist]

News from France!

In an article published by French news-site DVDRAMA it appears that the Blu-pack has taken the lead there as well. As of August 19, 2007 Blu-Ray leads in market sales with 58% to respectively 42% for HDDVD.

Total number of discs: 176 516 (101.863 Blu-Ray versus 74.653 HD-DVD)

Total numbers of titles released on the French market: (128 Blu-Ray versus 108 HD-DVD). Direct link to the article

Ciao,
Pro-B

[Person]

The Samsung BD-UP5000 dual-format, 1080p upscaling BluRay & HD DVD player is now on the market. For Brits, Amazon.co.uk have it for £530 (it was £489 for a short time) but they have the dreaded, "Usually dispatched within 4 to 6 weeks," so I am hesitant. Furthermore, I am uncertain as to whether or not it can be hacked for SD-DVD multi-region; and there is the question of playing region encoded Blu-Ray titles. I need a new DVD player anyway (you should see my fucked-up remote - it's hilarious) and was looking to spend around £500-600, so the pricing was a huge bonus, as I was expecting the Samsung BD-UP5000 to cost £650-800.