Awards Season 2010

[domino harvey]

I think if we're talking Blue Valentine shocks, I wouldn't be surprised if only one of the two actors gets nommed-- think Georgia fifteen years ago. I can't see them passing over Lawrence, though after poor Sally Hawkins a few years back, anything can happen

[James Mills]

Given that Blue Valentine has already been given a substantially wide release out here in Los Angeles, I'm actually going to predict that Blue Valentine gets a slew of nominations. I'm remaining hopeful, at least; a best director or picture nod for BV and a supporting actor nom for Garfield are the ones I'd like to see the most. I'll be really surprised if Winter's Bone gets a Best Picture nomination given it never got this kind of release (and its release date).

I agree that 127 Hours will probably only get a few nominations (no best picture/director nods), though Franco better be one of them.

[domino harvey]

I would think 127 Hours' only nod would be for Franco-- I would venture a director nod for Boyle, but apparently academy members really couldn't sit still for this one and will vote for Franco to mask that they didn't see it. I could definitely see Blue Valentine going either way (hence my prediction), but I do think the Town is going to have a stronger showing than people think, and the Academy loves actors who direct hit films, so there's some precedent. It also strikes me that besides a few shoo-ins in each category, this year's acting nominations are really up in the air

[mfunk9786]

It's a shame - Danny Boyle's three best films, 127 Hours, Millions, and 28 Days Later have gotten him very little to no awards recognition, but his lousiest efforts have gotten everyone in a froth. I hope that no one forgets this one, I can see it getting a Best Pic, Actor, and Adapted Screenplay nod rather effortlessly. And Editing and Original Song won't be out of the question either.

Domino, where had you heard that Academy members had a difficult time with the film? And are you implying that they considered it poor, or were put off by the content of the third act? I hadn't seen that written, and I know that the critical consensus was very positive, but I suppose the latter wouldn't shock me.

[James Mills]

It's a shame - Danny Boyle's three best films, 127 Hours, Millions, and 28 Days Later have gotten him very little to no awards recognition, but his lousiest efforts have gotten everyone in a froth. I hope that no one forgets this one, I can see it getting a Best Pic, Actor, and Adapted Screenplay nod rather effortlessly. And Editing and Original Song won't be out of the question either.

While I strongly disagree that "his lousiest efforts" are the ones that have gotten the most acclaim, I am in complete agreement that 127 Hours and 28 Days Later have been unfairly swept under the rug.

The lack of recognition for 127 Hours is universal, though. I look no further than these boards and everyone's lists for examples of just how criminally underrated I find this film to be.

[domino harvey]

Domino, where had you heard that Academy members had a difficult time with the film? And are you implying that they considered it poor, or were put off by the content of the third act? I hadn't seen that written, and I know that the critical consensus was very positive, but I suppose the latter wouldn't shock me.

It's my understanding that no one was showing up to the free screenings they were putting on for academy members, and of those who did show up, many quietly excused themselves before the film finished. Now, these screenings attract the blue-stocking crowd, so perhaps the studio has gained enough younger members with screeners, but don't be too sure

[mfunk9786]

Hey assholes, you gave the guy Best Picture two years ago, give this one a chance

[knives]

But it's boring and bright and has these weird flashback thingies, wahhh

[domino harvey]

If I were a betting man, I'd say:

Another Year
Black Swan
the Fighter
Inception
the Kids Are All Right
the King's Speech
the Social Network
the Town
Toy Story 3
True Grit

[mfunk9786]

My predictions for the big categories (sorry, don't feel like writing out my predictions for Sound Mixing):

Best Picture:
127 Hours
Black Swan
Blue Valentine*
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King's Speech
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
True Grit

*Weinstein pics always over-perform come nomination time (The Reader, anyone?) and I have a feeling that they've been pushing Blue Valentine harder than we may realize. I know that it has played at several smaller, upper class film festivals (the Hamptons Film Festival, for example) and I know that screeners have likely been sent out in massive numbers.

Best Director:
David Fincher, The Social Network
Tom Hooper, The King's Speech
Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan
David O. Russell, The Fighter*
Ethan and Joel Coen, True Grit*

*My gut is telling me that the sometimes inscrutable and overly bombastic Inception will be shut out of this category. The Fighter and True Grit need room to get onto this list (one's a boxing film, which the Academy can't resist, and the other is an audience favorite Coen western with a lot of beautiful work put into it that would be a puzzling omission). Even if a voter enjoyed Inception, it strikes me as something that may be difficult to vote for. I have a feeling that there'll be no room for it here.

Best Actor:
Colin Firth, The King's Speech
Jeff Bridges, True Grit
James Franco, 127 Hours
Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network
Ryan Gosling, Blue Valentine*

*Weinstein effect will get Gosling the nod. He already pulled out a surprise nomination once, for his excellent turn in the little-seen Half Nelson, and this is a film with much more exposure and studio clout. The others are locks, as far as I'm concerned.

Best Actress:
Natalie Portman, Black Swan
Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone
Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right
Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine
Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole*

*I've nothing to base this on aside from little to no buzz for yet another very well-reviewed Leigh film. I have a feeling that Manville is going to get Hawkins'ed here for a safe Hollywood choice.

Adapted Screenplay:
Aaron Sorkin, The Social Network*
Michael Arndt, Toy Story 3
Joel and Ethan Coen, True Grit
Debra Granik, Anne Rosellini, Winter's Bone
Danny Boyle, Simon Beaufoy, 127 Hours

*Is there any way this isn't going to win this category?

Original Screenplay:
Christopher Nolan, Inception
David Spiedler, The King's Speech
Mark Heyman, Andres Heinz, John J. McLaughlin, Black Swan
Mike Leigh, Another Year*
Stuart Blumberg, Lisa Cholodenko, The Kids Are All Right

*This is the "Sorry we ignored your film otherwise" slot. The Charlie Kaufman award.

EDIT: Whoops, forgot these when I initially posted. Thanks, HopSlam:

Supporting Actor:
Christian Bale, The Fighter
Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech
Matt Damon, True Grit
Andrew Garfield, The Social Network*
John Hawkes, Winter's Bone

*He deserves to win this award, and if he doesn't even get nominated, I will be really shocked and appalled. I have a feeling that Matt Damon stands an outside chance to win, and John Hawkes might be a darkhorse pick, but if enough people watched the film to nominate Lawrence, ignoring him would absolutely puzzle me.

Supporting Actress:
Mila Kunis, Black Swan
Barbara Hershey, Black Swan*
Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit
Melissa Leo, The Fighter
Amy Adams, The Fighter

*This is the ultimate darkhorse pick, but I have a really strong feeling that it could happen, the performance carries a lot of weight and gives me a total Diane Ladd in Wild at Heart vibe. Steinfeld is going to win this category anyway, having a set of double-noms will probably seal that deal.

[James Mills]

I really thought Another Year was Leigh's worst screenplay in years, I don't understand why every publication seems to think it's a lock for a Best Screenplay nomination.

btw, what does this mean:

Best Actress:
Natalie Portman, Black Swan
Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone
Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right
Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine
Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole*

*I've nothing to base this on aside from little to no buzz for yet another very well-reviewed Leigh film. I have a feeling that Manville is going to get Hawkins'ed here for a safe Hollywood choice.

[knives]

They're not going to nominate Manville(much like they didn't nominate Hawkins for Happy Go-Lucky) because no one has heard of her and will instead nominate Kidman because they percieve her as still popular. Remember non of these awards have to do with quality, just public image.

[mfunk9786]

Exactly. No one is talking about Another Year compared to some of the other films that will be nominated, and if Sally Hawkins and Eddie Marsan weren't considered for Happy-Go-Lucky with a similar release and critical reception - the actors in this film will be almost surely similarly ignored.

[domino harvey]

I had a Hershey nom in mind when I said we might see something crazy

[Jeff]

Noms are on Tuesday, any last minute shockers to predict?

Not this Tuesday, but next Tuesday, the 25th.

[Feego]

My predictions so far, in every category except the short films (I have no clue) and foreign film (I'll wait until the Academy releases a short list) -- I AM a betting man!

Best Picture
Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King’s Speech
The Social Network
The Town
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter’s Bone

Best Director
Darren Aronofsky (Black Swan)
David O. Russell (The Fighter)
Christopher Nolan (Inception)
Tom Hooper (The King’s Speech)
David Fincher (The Social Network)

Best Actor
Jeff Bridges (True Grit)
Jesse Eisenberg (The Social Network)
Colin Firth (The King’s Speech)
James Franco (127 Hours)
Mark Wahlberg (The Fighter)

Best Actress
Annette Bening (The Kids Are All Right)
Nicole Kidman (Rabbit Hole)
Jennifer Lawrence (Winter’s Bone)
Natalie Portman (Black Swan)
Michelle Williams (Blue Valentine)

Best Supporting Actor
Christian Bale (The Fighter)
Andrew Garfield (The Social Network)
Jeremy Renner (The Town)
Mark Ruffalo (The Kids Are All Right)
Geoffrey Rush (The King’s Speech)

Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams (The Fighter)
Helena Bonham Carter (The King’s Speech)
Mila Kunis (Black Swan)
Melissa Leo (The Fighter)
Hailee Steinfeld (True Grit)

Best Original Screenplay
Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King’s Speech

Best Adapted Screenplay
127 Hours
The Social Network
The Town
Toy Story 3
True Grit

Best Animated Feature
The Illusionist
Tangled
Toy Story 3

Best Documentary Feature
Client 9: The Rise and Fall of Eliot Spitzer
Exit Through the Gift Shop
Inside Job
Restrepo
Waiting for Superman

Best Art Direction/Set Decoration
Alice in Wonderland
Inception
The King’s Speech
Shutter Island
True Grit

Best Cinematography
Black Swan
Inception
The King’s Speech
The Social Network
True Grit

Best Film Editing
Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The Social Network
True Grit

Best Sound Editing
Alice in Wonderland
Inception
Toy Story 3
Tron: Legacy
True Grit

Best Sound Mixing
Alice in Wonderland
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part I
Inception
Tron: Legacy
True Grit

Best Original Score*
127 Hours
Alice in Wonderland
Inception
The King’s Speech
The Social Network

Best Original Song
“Bound to You” (Burlesque)
“Coming Home” (Country Strong)
“Chanson Illusionist” (The Illusionist)
“I See the Light” (Tangled)
“We Belong Together” (Toy Story 3)

Best Costume Design
Alice in Wonderland
Black Swan
The King’s Speech
Robin Hood
True Grit

Best Makeup
Alice in Wonderland
Barney’s Version
The Fighter

Best Visual Effects
Alice in Wonderland
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part I
Inception
Scott Pilgrim vs. the World
Tron: Legacy


* Edited to replace Black Swan (inelligible) with 127 Hours.

[Jean-Luc Garbo]

Best Documentary Feature
Client 9: The Rise and Fall of Eliot Spitzer
Exit Through the Gift Shop
Inside Job
Restrepo
Waiting for Superman

I won't be surprised if that's what it will look like for the category. A tough year for competition to boot.

[matrixschmatrix]

Any guesses for wins if that is how the category looks? I hope for Exit Through the Gift Shop, I fear it'll be the packaged-as-blandly-positive-and-actually-regressive Waiting for Superman

[mfunk9786]

The buzz has been around Inside Job for quite a while. I doubt that Exit Through The Gift Shop will even be nominated.

[domino harvey]

Gonna be Waiting For Superman, no doubt

[Jean-Luc Garbo]

The buzz has been around Inside Job for quite a while. I doubt that Exit Through The Gift Shop will even be nominated.

I've heard the same. Nothing against Banksy, but it better be Inside Job.

[mfunk9786]

My documentary calls: The Tillman Story gets the nod over Exit Through the Gift Shop, Inside Job wins the award. I'll bet you $100, domino

[domino harvey]

My predictions so far, in every category except the short films (I have no clue) and foreign film (I'll wait until the Academy releases a short list) -- I AM a betting man!

Best Actor
Jeff Bridges (True Grit)
Jesse Eisenberg (The Social Network)
Colin Firth (The King’s Speech)
James Franco (127 Hours)
Mark Wahlberg (The Fighter)

Best Actress
Annette Bening (The Kids Are All Right)
Nicole Kidman (Rabbit Hole)
Jennifer Lawrence (Winter’s Bone)
Natalie Portman (Black Swan)
Michelle Williams (Blue Valentine)

Best Supporting Actor
Christian Bale (The Fighter)
Andrew Garfield (The Social Network)
Jeremy Renner (The Town)
Mark Ruffalo (The Kids Are All Right)
Geoffrey Rush (The King’s Speech)

Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams (The Fighter)
Helena Bonham Carter (The King’s Speech)
Mila Kunis (Black Swan)
Melissa Leo (The Fighter)
Hailee Steinfeld (True Grit)

My predix exactly, believe it or not. Wiggle room: Kunis and Wahlberg

[ambrose]

Golden Globes awards live blog!

[Kirkinson]

Best Original Score
Alice in Wonderland
Black Swan
Inception
The King’s Speech
The Social Network

Black Swan is inelligible. Otherwise I think you're probably pretty close in this category, though I'm not sure about Alice. Elfman doesn't have a great track record with the Academy. And I bet A.R. Rahman will coast in on the residual good will of Slumdog Millionaire to get nominated again for 127 Hours.