Awards Season 2015

[domino harvey]

It came in third place for Picture, Director, and Cinematography

[movielocke]

With spotlight missing an ACE nomination and Star Wars picking up a "surprise" ACE nomination, I would expect star wars to also pick up "surprise" nominations at the PGA and ASC later this week, in addition to an obvious ADG nom, as well as Abrams picking up a DGA nom next week right before the Oscar noms drop.

Star wars and the big short have all the momentum right now, spotlight is floundering as the room and Brooklyn and bridge of spies have. Carol will pick up tons of momentum with the baftas and globes this weekend, but I don't think any of those three (carol, big short, star wars) will displace the Martian from its frontrunner status between now and Oscar night in the narrative of the season.

Star wars cant control the narrative of this awards season because when star wars lands 9+ nominations next week the backlash will be sudden, vicious and unrelenting until Oscar night, more than enough to prevent any campaign from capitalizing on its potential momentum.

It would be an amusing parallel if a comedy like Big Short beats this Star wars just as a comedy beat the first star wars

Sorry for the lack of bolding formatting, I'm on my phone.

[Ribs]

I'm leaning on the Martian too mostly due to an anyone-but-Spotlight insistence I am maintaining. I think Ridley Scott or George Miller will be going home with their much-deserved Directing Oscar, regardless - anybody else doesn't have a pony in the race.

Really what I'm hoping for (and I realize this is terrible) but I could easily imagine Spotlight being left out of the director's race altogether in the later awards, much like with the editing nod because it's not exactly showy with its direction like everyone else this year. This'd help whatever takes it's place's narrative.

I realize this award has basically no correlation with Oscars gold but it felt like a huge gut punch that the NSFC didn't give BP to Carol or Mad Max, as I think either would have actually really helped either movie with a bit of momentum. Instead it just reinforced Spotlight further.

I'm mildly terrified that The Revenant will be an American Sniper-like huge hit and this could somehow turn into momentum but hard to tell at this point.

[domino harvey]

Spotlight is directed by a well-liked character actor and is the overwhelming favorite for Best Pic going into the awards (not sure where the wild speculation otherwise in the last few posts is coming from), it's as close to a sure bet for a Director nom as there is.

[FrauBlucher]

Spotlight is directed by a well-liked character actor and is the overwhelming favorite for Best Pic going into the awards (not sure where the wild speculation otherwise in the last few posts is coming from), it's as close to a sure bet for a Director nom as there is.

I just finished watching this and I can't agree more. This has the stuff that the academy absolutely loves. I also think McCarthy will be a strong contender to win the DGA award.

[Ribs]

Yes but as I said I am maintaining an anybody-but-Spotlight perspective on the season as I believe it won't hold, especially given its lack of a guild nod from the editors (Birdman of course didn't get nods in this either but it was a film that almost literally required no editing). The Martian has the same well-liked-by-all appeal and Scott is hyper-overdue.

[knives]

Spotlight is directed by a well-liked character actor and is the overwhelming favorite for Best Pic going into the awards (not sure where the wild speculation otherwise in the last few posts is coming from), it's as close to a sure bet for a Director nom as there is.

I wouldn't, especially for the reasons you cited, be surprised if it does an Argo where a shutout from BD causes a surge of popularity in BP which it borderline has wrapped up for better or worse.

[mfunk9786]

Kris Tapley put up his top 10 shots of 2015, one of my reliable favorite year-end pieces around awards season

[movielocke]

Looks like I was wrong, star wars didn't get a PGA nom. Snubbed, alongside carol.

The PGA really hates not getting screeners of films, Selma last year, star wars this year.

[domino harvey]

PGA noms:

The Darryl F. Zanuck Award for Outstanding Producer of Theatrical Motion Pictures:

the Big Short
Bridge of Spies
Brooklyn
Ex Machina
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Sicario
Spotlight
Straight Outta Compton

[domino harvey]

Looks like I was wrong, star wars didn't get a PGA nom. Snubbed, alongside carol.

The PGA really hates not getting screeners of films, Selma last year, star wars this year.

Carol and Star Wars missing here are huge snubs. Sicario is shaping up as a dark horse nom for Best Picture. I think Ex Machina should be happy it snuck in here, its Oscar chances are slim to zilch. Creed and Hateful Eight pretty surely out of contention for Best Pic now. Straight Outta Compton's award presence seems predicated on white guilt, so we'll see how well that translates to the Oscars, though after last year's "I have black friends" ceremony embarrassment, I wouldn't put it past 'em!

EDIT: No Room either!

[Ribs]

quietly losing my mind over thr Carol snub; this can't happen through to the Oscars, can it?

[domino harvey]

It was just snubbed by the Art Direction guild as well-- the Guilds really hate it for whatever reason. What's important to realize about the PGAs is not only are they 85% accurate in predicting the Best Pic nominees, but they use the same preferential ballot system of voting as the Oscars. Different collection of voters for the Oscars, true, but enough overlap that you shouldn't be looking for too different a set of nominees next week. This year has been insane, one of the most up in the air ever.

[The Narrator Returns]

There are two films there that will almost certainly not get BP noms, and I think that Carol would be the most likely to fill one of those spots (since there being 10 nominees is a pipe dream at this point), so here's hoping.

[domino harvey]

I think Carol will get into Best Picture pretty safely, and hell, maybe it will become an underdog potential winner if Haynes manages to get nominated for Director (the win for which will surely go to Scott or Miller regardless of the Best Picture winner, assuming they're even nominated this wacky year)-- the Academy still owes its Brokeback Mountain debt and this is a year of high profile gender and sexuality discussion in the forefront. Of course, it was an even more racially charged year, so there needs to be a token bone thrown and Compton, a huge popular hit, may fit the bill (for a nomination) since the only other viable option, Beasts of No Nation, is dead in the water outside of Elba (who they need for criticism deflection, he's one of the few guaranteed noms there is this year). Star Wars is shaping up to be the highest grossing film of all time, I can't see the Oscars ignoring it in the big category either. But I agree that we probably won't see ten films this year. Hell, I'd bet good money we'll be closer to five than ten.

[swo17]

I thought they were taking it back down to a maximum of five nominees this year.

[domino harvey]

I thought they were taking it back down to five nominees.

Idle chatter, sadly

[DarkImbecile]

I thought they were taking it back down to five nominees.

Idle chatter, sadly

Really? I'm totally in favor of a broader pool of nominees, with Carol being a prime example of its benefits. As you note, it's a likely nominee under this system, but could be easily left out with a five nominee cap. Totally aside from whatever value the awards and nominations themselves have, a best picture nomination for Carol means more publicity, more theaters, more revenue, and - most importantly - more viewers for a fine film.

[Trees]

Hmmm.. seems like the road to the Oscars is all over the map this year. A bit of chaos. Even custom-designed Oscar-bait like Carol isn't hooking fish

[movielocke]

I'm enjoying how chaotic this season is, I should have expected the star wars snub given how notoriously lazy the PGA is about attending screenings relative to other guilds (last night's final guild screening of star wars was packed, it was nice to finally see it flat rather than 3d, which is why I went).

Carol I watched on screener and my first thought watching it was that the film's look did not seem well represented on dvd, I loved the film but I don't think it plays well on screener, hopefully the commercial release doesn't feel so low res and muddy, I would expect an ASC snub tomorrow.

I've been expecting Compton at the Oscars, after the Selma backlash last year, I expect more block voting this year and next to ensure a BP nomination for films like Selma and Compton. So I'm not surprised to see it here.

ASC and DGA noms should clarify which films are competing with the Martian. WGA is rarely predictive since they disqualify so many contenders every year.

[captveg]

The more things keep being muddled this year, the more I see Mad Max gaining steam. Spotlight may be in the lead, but if there was ever a year a major genre film would breakthrough for BP, this maybe it. Could be a The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King situation in miniature.

[domino harvey]

Honestly, every possible winner both does and doesn't surprise me. I wasn't a big fan of the film but I would applaud the Academy for going so far out of their usual wheelhouse by honoring it

[captveg]

I'll be satisfied with it getting the Picture and Director noms. Winning either would just be gravy.

[swo17]

Only it's the film that should be the meal, with the awards like staying after to stack chairs.

[captveg]

Oh, I've had my full helpings of the film itself. I've watched it 7-8 times so far.