Awards Season 2015

[lacritfan]

I also think McKay will be left out but I wouldn't be that surprised if one of the other four was snubbed either. Directors branched used to have left field noms but not so much in the past; I wouldn't put it past them to stick someone like JJ Abrams or even Ryan Coogler, F. Gary Gray or Geza Rohrig in the mix.

[movielocke]

The Dga usually picks 4 of the 5 best director nominees, given the academy demographic, miller is likely to be replaced by Spielberg at the oscars

[captveg]

Maybe, maybe not. I think directors recognize what an achievement MM:FR is from a creative and technical standpoint, and will be likely to recognize Miller.

[domino harvey]

My predix:

BEST PICTURE
the Big Short
Bridge of Spies
Brooklyn
Carol
Mad Max: Fury Road
the Martian
the Revenant
Room
Spotlight
Star Wars: the Force Awakens
So many people are predicting Straight Outta Compton to make it to this category. I really don't want to sit through all three hours of that, which means it will almost surely be nominated just to fuck with me and my pledge to watch all Best Pic nominees. If I'm iffy about any of these, and all ten will surely not make it, it's Room

BEST DIRECTOR
Todd Haynes
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu
Tom McCarthy
George Miller
Ridley Scott
Or maybe Spielberg in over Haynes? But it seems like the directing branch will reward Haynes here, especially given the unexpectedly contentious nature of the film with other guilds-- no one saw fucking Beasts of the Southern Wild getting in here, so I guess it could get really stupid, so let's all hope it is Haynes!

BEST ACTOR
Bryan Cranston
Matt Damon
Leonardo DiCaprio
Michael Fassbender
Eddie Redmayne
The only category I feel 100% on. So I'll end up being 3/5 this year, I'm sure

BEST ACTRESS
Cate Blanchett
Brie Larson
Jennifer Lawrence
Saoirse Ronan
Charlize Theron
This is the category where the biggest surprise will be, whether its Vikander or Mara in lead or someone no one was even expecting. Theron's as good a guess as any for this fifth slot, and it's an incredibly weak year for this category so who knows what's going to happen

SUPPORTING ACTOR
Idris Elba
Michael Keaton
Mark Ruffalo
Mark Rylance
Sylvester Stallone
I guess Christian Bale could end up bumping off one of the Spotlight guys, but I think this movie is so far up the Academy's alley that I can't see in underperforming here where it matters

SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Rooney Mara
Rachel McAdams
Alicia Vikander
Julie Walters
Kate Winslet
I haven't seen the Hateful Eight yet but JJL deserves to be nominated more than anyone just by virtue of her somehow never being nominated before. Which means it won't happen. I will be delighted to be proven wrong

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
the Big Short
Brooklyn
the Martian
Room
Steve Jobs

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Bridge of Spies
Ex Machina
the Hateful Eight
Inside Out
Spotlight

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Carol
the Hateful Eight
Mad Max: Fury Road
the Revenant
Sicario

[Red Screamer]

Rooney Mara is being run as Supporting? Ideally, they'd both be considered leads but of the two it's her movie no question.

[Ribs]

Well, I think it's the right divide assuming co-leads is unsustainable (which it is). The fact that there is this conversation at all does, in fact, make this questionable. Rooney Mara's in the movie more but she isn't the lead just the same as Tobey Maguire wouldn't have been considered the lead of The Great Gatsby if that had been an awards season hit. I honestly do not feel I'm drinking Weinstein's Kool-aid in saying that I totally agree with his choice of campaigning.

Domino's basically got everything I feel surmised in those predictions, especially the desperate hope for Straight Outta Compton to be snubbed. I'm hoping against hope that this year I will be able to say I've seen everything nominated, in theaters, before the nominations are announced, and Compton is the one serious threat to that prospect (last year American Sniper shot down this goal by not opening outside of NY/LA until the day after nominations were announced).

After last year's relatively tame nominations morning (literally the only two things that shocked me were the Lego Movie omission and Mr. Turner (in my opinion one of the best films of the century, mind) recieving a completely inappropriate and unexpected nomination for Best Score), I'm hoping for something loopy like a Sicario or Creed BP nomination, Vikander getting a double nomination, etc.

[Kirkinson]

According to Academy rules, voting members decide for themselves whether a performance counts as lead or supporting. Studios and distributors can only influence that decision through campaigning, not in how they submit the film. In cases like Carol it's in their interest to try to convince voters Mara is supporting so that she and Blanchett aren't competing against each other, and for awards purposes Blanchett is probably the de facto lead just by virtue of being a bigger star and having the title role (and arguably the more charismatic character). Voters may or may not agree to play along.

[Trees]

So many people are predicting Straight Outta Compton to make it to this category. I really don't want to sit through all three hours of that, which means it will almost surely be nominated just to fuck with me and my pledge to watch all Best Pic nominees. If I'm iffy about any of these, and all ten will surely not make it, it's Room

Not a rap fan, domino?

[mfunk9786]

I'm also sort of puzzled by that comment, for the record. What makes that film so uniquely unappealing to you? Also, it's only 2 hours and 30 minutes long.

[hearthesilence]

Jim DeRogatis gave a spot-on take on Straight Outta Compton. Not a fan of the film myself.

[dustybooks]

Jim DeRogatis gave a spot-on take on Straight Outta Compton. Not a fan of the film myself.

I was going to post something about how hating NWA doesn't preclude one being a fan of hip hop (and never has, going back decades now), but this does the job nicely. I will probably see the film eventually but I'm often irritated by the inevitable formulaic aspects of biopics about even artists I do love.

[Trees]

Music biopics, especially ones about a band, are tough to pull off. Leaving aside the issues of misogyny and violence, I went to see "Compton" expecting a disaster. I was very surprised that it was coherent and interesting. It's in my top 20 for the year. Then again I have only seen about 20

[mfunk9786]

Music biopics, especially ones about a band, are tough to pull off. Leaving aside the issues of misogyny and violence, I went to see "Compton" expecting a disaster. I was very surprised that it was coherent and interesting. It's in my top 20 for the year. Then again I have only seen about 20

Are you ever going to settle on an avatar for longer than a day, or...?

[Trees]

I'm trying to make a masterpiece! Yes, I will eventually settle down with one.

[Professor Wagstaff]

Trees is like Bob Dylan in that way. You can't pin him down.

[lacritfan]

5% chance upsets I'm pulling for :
Best Picture - Sicario
Director - JJ Abrams, Star Wars : Force Awakens
Actor - Johnny Depp, Black Mass
Supporting Actor - Benicio Del Toro, Sicario and Paul Dano, Love and Mercy
Supporting Actress - Kristen Stewart, The Clouds of Sils Maria
Original Screenplay - Amy Schumer, Trainwreck
Documentary - Heart of a Dog
Foreign Language -The Assassin and Embrace of the Serpent

[domino harvey]

The Assassin has a zero percent chance, it didn't make the shortlist

[lacritfan]

The Assassin has a zero percent chance, it didn't make the shortlist

Crap, that's right, wondering why people had it on their "coulda been a contender" instead of long shot category.

[FrauBlucher]

F-ing hell, really? The DGA is a bunch of morons, which is not surprising considering the winners of the past, oh, decades. George Miller is the only one in that bunch that did truly outstanding work in their respective films.

As a member of this body, I'm almost always disappointed with the selections and eventual winners. In the past when it was paper ballots I would write in Malick, Tarr, PT Anderson, Ceylon, amongst others. Can't do that anymore.

I'm of the opinion, even though it will never happen, that they create two categories. Films that are predominately effects created and those that are not. How can they justifiably compete against each other?

[Ribs]

Bad news: No Carol

Good news: No Straight Outta Compton, either

[domino harvey]

Ridley Scott and Aaron Sorkin snubs were legendary. Scott was the odds on favorite to win!

[domino harvey]

And one of our greatest living actresses, JJL, has finally been recognized by the Academy!

[Ribs]

The Scott snub basically kills any hope of the Martian as the anything-but-Spotlight beacon of light. It's all up to the Big Short and so it feels a bit like I made a wish with a genie to make sure Spotlight didn't win best picture and the two late-season comers to do it are far, far worse to the point where now I'm kind of rooting for Spotlight. And then he took Carol from me as well.

[DarkImbecile]

Bad news: No Carol

Good news: No Straight Outta Compton, either

Better news: No Star Wars

[Ribs]

Upon reflection, is there any way they could turn around the Scott snub as a Ben Affleck-Argo narrative and end up winning because of it?