Awards Season 2015

[domino harvey]

No one ever seemed to really love it, I doubt it

[DarkImbecile]

Ridley Scott and Aaron Sorkin snubs were legendary. Scott was the odds on favorite to win!

The Academy clearly loved Room more than just about anybody else... I didn't see a single prediction anywhere that had Abrahamson among the nominees.

[DarkImbecile]

I'd actually say that the favorite at this point has to be The Revenant... After the Globes wins, the surprising box office success, and the lead in nominations (including some surprises like Hardy), it's got all the momentum, unlike Spotlight, which if anything has consistently underperformed awards-wise.

[domino harvey]

Now to endure a month and a half of outraged think pieces regarding the racial makeup of the nominees, hooray!

[domino harvey]

I'd actually say that the favorite at this point has to be The Revenant... After the Globes wins, the surprising box office success, and the lead in nominations (including some surprises like Hardy), it's got all the momentum, unlike Spotlight, which if anything has consistently underperformed awards-wise.

The Keaton snub was harsh but the (deserved) notice for McAdams and the editing nom keep it in contention

[captveg]

Now to endure a month and a half of outraged think pieces regarding the racial makeup of the nominees, hooray!

It's not that difficult: in order to get more nominees, we need more films with minority actors to be made and be recognized as a whole. Aside from a late push for Compton and Elba, there weren't really any movies, let alone specific performances, with minority actors in the conversation over the last month or so. And that support was at best shaky because neither film really took hold of the masses.

Anyway, my thoughts:

Lots of support for The Revenant (the new frontronner) and Mad Max, both probably a bit more than most expected (except for me with the latter; I was hoping the lack of support for Joy would have allowed for Theron to grab Lawrence's spot). Solid support for The Martian (but no Scott is a shock), Spotlight, and Room, with the Directing nom for Abrahamson probably the biggest surprise of all the nominees. Support for Carol really dropped off with no Picture or Director noms (McKay and The Big Short seems to have pushed it and Haynes aside there at the end). Sorkin with no nom for the screenplay for Steve Jobs is another small miss, but honestly, aside from Fassbender and Winslet that movie had no pull. I loved it, but whaddya gonna do?

Otherwise, things went pretty much as expected, IMO.

[knives]

A24 seems to have a very good marketing division for themselves. In addition to the Room surprise Amy got a nomination out there, though I believe that was much more expected. This year certainly looks pleasantly balanced even if nothing strikes me as great (wait for me to eat my hat on that later).

[hearthesilence]

Sweet Jesus, what an enormously shitty list of nominees, even worse than my low expectations. Guess I'm rooting for Mad Max to clean up (i.e. my third favorite Mad Max film). Fucking hell.

[Newsnayr]

Really shocked and sad at just how much Carol dropped off, really sucks ](*,)

[hearthesilence]

No kidding. Todd Haynes got passed over for THOSE guys? Even Spielberg or Boyle or Ridley Scott would've been better nominees than four of those people.

[toning down the language for those who are easily offended by four letter words]

[domino harvey]

Dude

[DarkImbecile]

It appears that The Big Short's well-deserved momentum came at Carol's expense, which is a damn shame... I really enjoyed both, but Carol deserved a Directing nomination if any other film this year did. Maybe Room also sucked up some of Carol's oxygen, but I haven't seen that one yet so will withhold judgement.

[captveg]

hearthesilence, I don't get how you can consider Miller not worthy of his nomination. Even if one doesn't like the film, it's so wholly a "director's film" - the vision, the planning, the execution, the details, the control of the language of the visual medium of film. I'm not saying it does every thing all movies can do from a direction standpoint, but what it does accomplish it hits the mark dead on across the board.

EDIT: Unless I read your statement wrong and the "four" are everyone except Miller...

[domino harvey]

I imagine Room was nommed by fellow directors for the difficulties of directing half of a film inside a small 10x10 room with a child actor, so I sort of get it, but the bigger outrage was its awful script being nommed (though that was expected)

[captveg]

I imagine Room was nommed by fellow directors for the difficulties of directing half of a film inside a small 10x10 room with a child actor, so I sort of get it, but the bigger outrage was its awful script being nommed (though that was expected)

Yeah, kinda what happened with Beasts of the Southern Wild is my take.

[hearthesilence]

EDIT: Unless I read your statement wrong and the "four" are everyone except Miller...

This, hence me rooting for a clean sweep. Won't happen, I'm almost certain it's going to be The Revenant walking away with nearly everything.

[Trees]

I think things are looking very good for Revenant, including Lubezki, Iñárritu, etc. But looking at the Best Actor category, I have a hunch that Leo might be going home empty handed again.

[DarkImbecile]

I think things are looking very good for Revenant, including Lubezki, Iñárritu, etc. But looking at the Best Actor category, I have a hunch that Leo might be going home empty handed again.

That would be the biggest upset in maybe 20 years... Who are you envisioning beating him?

[DarkImbecile]

Also, since Scott was snubbed, and back-to-back awards for Inarritu are unlikely, especially given the recent tendency to split BP and Directing wins, is Miller now the front-runner?

[Altair]

Room getting a Best Director nomination is the true shock, but I was surprised at the Best Editing nom for The Force Awakens (really?), which helps clarifies that The Martian has no chance at Best Picture, lacking the editing nod (even Argo won for editing), so one can say that the four frontrunners are Mad Max: Fury Road, Spotlight, The Revenant and The Big Short. I don't think Mad Max is really going to walk away with Best Picture, so we have realistically a three-way race at the moment. Also, Carol, RIP, sniff.

[captveg]

EDIT: Unless I read your statement wrong and the "four" are everyone except Miller...

This, hence me rooting for a clean sweep. Won't happen, I'm almost certain it's going to be The Revenant walking away with nearly everything.

I really think you have two short-list pairings of potential Picture winners:

- The box office successes with lots of nominations: The Revenant, Mad Max: Fury Road

- The socially important dramas: The Big Short, Spotlight

Those are the four that can win Picture. All have director and editing noms.

The Revenant should be in the lead now because it counts all major branches as part of its nominations - Directors, Actors, Technicians. But I wonder if Birdman's win just last year and its general bleakness hurts it just enough to let The Big Short or Spotlight take it away.

And then there's Mad Max, which is propped up by the Director and Technical people. But those that love it LOVE it, and could perhaps push it over the top.

If it wasn't for The Revenant and Mad Max's support from the Technical side of the Academy I'd say The Martian has an Argo-like chance. But I just can't see it building any momentum unless, like Affleck, Scott wins the DGA. But the lack of editing nom hurts it big time.

I'm going with Miller winning director (because back-to-back wins just don't happen), with one of the other three winning Picture.

[Luke M]

I think things are looking very good for Revenant, including Lubezki, Iñárritu, etc. But looking at the Best Actor category, I have a hunch that Leo might be going home empty handed again.

Got a feeling the opposite will happen. Despite The Revenant noms and Iñárritu love at the Golden Globes, winning back-to-back is incredibly rare. Only two directors have done it, Ford and Mankiewicz, which is to say it hasn't been done in over 50 years.

[hearthesilence]

Ugh. I actually liked Birdman, but it was still pretty wobbly (the built-in forward momentum of the faux "single take" aesthetic smoothed over them but in memory, they still stick out) and so many of its best ideas were lifted straight out of Godard's films, and not even his lesser-known experimental works but his better-known '60s masterpieces.

[captveg]

I think things are looking very good for Revenant, including Lubezki, Iñárritu, etc. But looking at the Best Actor category, I have a hunch that Leo might be going home empty handed again.

Got a feeling the opposite will happen. Despite The Revenant noms and Iñárritu love at the Golden Globes, winning back-to-back is incredibly rare. Only two directors have done it, Ford and Mankiewicz, which is to say it hasn't been done in over 50 years.

It would be three in a row for Lubezki. That just seems improbable.

[Trees]

I think things are looking very good for Revenant, including Lubezki, Iñárritu, etc. But looking at the Best Actor category, I have a hunch that Leo might be going home empty handed again.

That would be the biggest upset in maybe 20 years... Who are you envisioning beating him?

Eddie Redmayne. Politically it will be attractive to voters. Mind you, I have not even seen Danish Girl. I'm just going on things have I have read and heard about his performance.

BTW, I am not outright predicting a win for Iñárritu. But I think generally everyone nominated for Revenant has a good chance to win, aside from Leo. I will outright predict that Lubezki will win, though, scoring what I think will be the first-ever back-to-back "threepeat" for Cinematography Oscars.