Awards Season 2016

[Ribs]

Directors Guild nominees:


OUTSTANDING DIRECTORIAL ACHIEVEMENT IN FEATURE FILM FOR 2016

DAMIEN CHAZELLE, La La Land
GARTH DAVIS, Lion
BARRY JENKINS, Moonlight
KENNETH LONERGAN, Manchester by the Sea
DENIS VILLENEUVE, Arrival

OUTSTANDING DIRECTORIAL ACHIEVEMENT OF A FIRST-TIME FEATURE FILM DIRECTOR FOR 2016

GARTH DAVIS, Lion
KELLY FREMON CRAIG, The Edge of Seventeen
NATE PARKER, The Birth of a Nation
TIM MILLER, Deadpool
DAN TRACHTENBERG, 10 Cloverfield Lane

These are the first nominations this season that seem to have made any amount of sense.

[DarkImbecile]

Directors Guild nominees:


OUTSTANDING DIRECTORIAL ACHIEVEMENT IN FEATURE FILM FOR 2016

DAMIEN CHAZELLE, La La Land
GARTH DAVIS, Lion
BARRY JENKINS, Moonlight
KENNETH LONERGAN, Manchester by the Sea
DENIS VILLENEUVE, Arrival

OUTSTANDING DIRECTORIAL ACHIEVEMENT OF A FIRST-TIME FEATURE FILM DIRECTOR FOR 2016

GARTH DAVIS, Lion
KELLY FREMON CRAIG, The Edge of Seventeen
NATE PARKER, The Birth of a Nation
TIM MILLER, Deadpool
DAN TRACHTENBERG, 10 Cloverfield Lane

These are the first nominations this season that seem to have made any amount of sense.

Not having seen Lion, I'm fine with the main nominations, but this Deadpool thing is getting ridiculous, and Parker in no way deserves that nomination (for reasons having nothing to do with his personal life; his direction totally derails that film). That said, it's great that Kelly Fremon Craig and Dan Trachtenberg get some love in what will probably be the only awards season recognition for their films.

[Ribs]

I think that'd be a controversial opinion about Parker; I think the consensus view is he's clearly a talent with passion but just lacked the literal cost resources to make a better film.

The first films category will always have a few oddballs for various reasons but overall I really can't complain.

Lion is really wonderful in a way very reminiscent of last year's Brooklyn, it's got that same Weinstein-y prestige picture gloss over it but really is just fantastic considering the simplicity of the story it's telling.

[DarkImbecile]

I think that'd be a controversial opinion about Parker; I think the consensus view is he's clearly a talent with passion but just lacked the literal cost resources to make a better film.

Rereading what I wrote about this in the film's thread, it's possible that I'm holding the shortcomings of Parker's script against his direction, but as a director he is a very raw and uneven talent at best, in ways that have nothing to do with the budget of the film. Would have much rather seen Brady Corbet for Childhood of a Leader or the Swiss Army Man duo in there instead.

That said, glad to hear that Lion might be worth catching; the promotional materials I've seen weren't exactly making me run to the ticket window.

[domino harvey]

Ribs, critical sentiment on Birth of a Nation's direction is widely meh to bad, the DGA recognition is the only controversial stance here

These noms are bad news for those hoping for Silence, Hell or High Water, or Hacksaw Ridge to figure above the line at Oscars

[FrauBlucher]

I am not surprised at Scorsese not getting a DGA nom and will feel the same if it happens with the Academy.

[knives]

Yeah, Silence and a few other seemingly major films are really flying under the radar with only five or six films seeming to catch on with anyone.

[domino harvey]

I do think we may have the lowest Best Picture count since the sliding number was introduced-- only five or six wouldn't surprise me at all

[knives]

La La Land, Moonlight, Manchester by the Sea, and maybe Hidden Figures seem like safe bets, but everything else has a very optional feeling to it. It's probably the best chance we've had in a while for a foreign language film like Toni Erdmann to get in.

[domino harvey]

Hidden Figures is not a safe bet. All five DGA films will be nommed. Beyond that I am sure of nothing. If any foreign film gets in, it'll be Elle ala Haneke a few years back

[knives]

That must be my bubble influencing me. You're probably right.

[criterion10]

Hidden Figures is not a safe bet. All five DGA films will be nommed. Beyond that I am sure of nothing. If any foreign film gets in, it'll be Elle ala Haneke a few years back

Elle was not on the shortlist of foreign language films the Academy released a while back, so I'd count that one out, minus perhaps Isabelle Huppert's performance.

[domino harvey]

Which is why a passionate coterie of its fans may feel compelled to push it into the top slot

[Ribs]

With the way this year's going, I'm really struggling with whether there'll be way less nominees than usual or a maxed out amount. I really have a hard time imagining most of these titles getting the 5% of #1 ballots threshold for Best Picture; obviously the top three, but I just really don't feel like there's any passion behind anything else down the line. I feel like we could honestly end up with 6 because of this, or as many as 10 because everything moves up as titles are eliminated. I think Domino is slightly underplaying Hacksaw Ridge's chances, as I think it has its niche, but it really has become a year of the three guarantees and everything else. I liked Lion as much as anybody but I really don't know what kind of person would rank it in first place on a ballot for best picture this year. The race isn't supposed to be this lopsided, and if either of these extremes pan out a year like this is a very effective argument towards moving back to a fixed amount of nominees.

[DarkImbecile]

The race isn't supposed to be this lopsided, and if either of these extremes pan out a year like this is a very effective argument towards moving back to a fixed amount of nominees.

Why? What would having a set number of nominees nominees solve? For that matter, what's the problem you're trying to solve in the first place?

[swo17]

The only way to solve the Oscars is to do them every four years like the Olympics.

[domino harvey]

The Academy is fucking with things that aren't broken again

[Feego]

One Academy insider described the move as part of an online push to attract a global audience.

And 97% of that audience will just read the nominations online on the lunch break.

But it also will have the added side benefit of saving Academy executives from having to answer any media questions about the nominations.

In case #oscarsowhite

[domino harvey]

Literally the only reason to get up early and watch the live nominations is to hear the press gasp at the shocks

[captveg]

I liked Lion as much as anybody but I really don't know what kind of person would rank it in first place on a ballot for best picture this year.

That would be me, but then I'm not an Academy Member, so....

But your point stands - I can easily see it not making it.

I'm guessing 6-7 BP noms.

[movielocke]

The Academy is fucking with things that aren't broken again

last year they read every nominated category for the first time and I'm guessing non Los Angeles tv markets hated that the announcements were two segments long. I mean I don't know how inhouse packages / presentation are going to say 120 entries (5x24 approx ) any quicker?

[domino harvey]

Gold Derby is predicting La La Land will tie the record for most Oscar nominations with fourteen predicted noms

[domino harvey]

Oscar noms are tomorrow morning, so last chance to get your predix in. I'll go with:

BEST PIC

Arrival
Hell or High Water
Hidden Figures
La La Land
Lion
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight
Nocturnal Animals

DIRECTOR

Damien Chazelle
Garth Davis
Barry Jenkins
Kenneth Lonergan
Denis Villeneuve

ACTOR

Casey Affleck
Ryan Gosling
Jake Gyllenhaal (This category is going to have a major, major surprise in it— like, Ryan Reynolds-level)
Viggo Mortensen
Denzel Washington

ACTRESS

Amy Adams
Isabelle Huppert
Natalie Portman
Emma Stone
Meryl Streep

SUP ACTOR

Mahershala Ali
Jeff Bridges
Hugh Grant
Dev Patel
Aaron Taylor-Johnson

SUP ACTRESS

Viola Davis
Naomie Harris
Felicity Jones
Nicole Kidman
Michelle Williams

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Arrival
Fences
Lion
Moonlight
Nocturnal Animals

ORIG SCREENPLAY

Captain Fantastic
Hell and High Water
La La Land
the Lobster
Manchester by the Sea

There's always titles that over and underperform. I'm betting on Nocturnal Animals to overperform, Hacksaw Ridge to underperform, and Hell or High Water to come somewhere in the middle but still pull off a Best Pic nom. I think Fences will have less support than expected and miss Best Pic, but part of that may be clouded by my desire to not see it! I think Silence will be shut out. I also think there will be a lot of left field noms given how most categories only have three or so sure things-- don't let the whining/celebrating over La La Land's expected nomination dominance overshadow how this year is filled with a lot of question marks apart from the big three of La, Manchester, and Moonlight. It would also not surprise me if Best Picture only had five films in it and they match up 5 for 5 with Best Director

[knives]

SUP ACTOR

Mahershala Ali

I hope this comes through with a win. I didn't particularly like the film, but he did a lot to legitimize the whole affair.

[domino harvey]

I just read a prediction from the Hollywood Reporter who thought he may be snubbed in the nominations and just had to shake my head in disbelief. I think Ali's win is all but set by now as both a reward for a well-liked film that may not pick up another award that night and because we all know the Oscars need to deflect Oscars So White and by doing so with a win for a perf that is widely praised and with no accusations of tokenism is just smart business