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mfunk9786 wrote:

Apperson wrote:Lets hope they're not too busy with Franco any longer.

Yes, let's totally exclude someone from showbusiness for shooting short films with nude scenes - keep lowering that bar

Seems like it was a bit worse than you're letting on here--probably another abuse of power, based on what a few actresses are saying.

Anyway, the Guy Lodge thread was interesting. Seems like based on the trend he's pointing out Nolan would be a favorite; still hoping Gerwig has a shot.

Brian C wrote:

mfunk9786 wrote:Still sad that The Florida Project's subject matter was just too uncomfortable for it to leave a lasting mark on this race.

I doubt that's it - I think it probably just lost out to Three Billboards for the "Garish Indie Social Posturing" slot.

I'll take the bait just a bit - I thought Three Billboards was easily the worst film I saw theatrically all year (I'm pretty selective about my viewing, so I don't doubt there were other, worse movies released). It's almost an exhaustive compendium of all the possible missteps a screenwriter and director could make when addressing various current hot button social issues. Particularly one who is writing about a country and a culture not their own. How that film in all its incompetent, tone-deaf, unearned self-righteous glory could even begin to be a key part of the Awards season dialogue this year is pretty disheartening. Even moreso with so many critics vocally praising it - it's not even like we can blame the unwashed masses for this one.

The Florida Project on the other hand handily avoids these pitfalls, never tipping over into sanctimoniousness, just a real and messy portrayal of living a marginalized and extremely precarious existence in America, surviving a week or even a day at a time. I was convinced it could be this year's Moonlight - a socially conscious film with heart (giving it broader appeal), yet made in a distinctly un-Hollywood art film fashion. It's a shame it slipped through the cracks, and I think part of the responsibility has to be with A24 giving it a smaller release than was really necessary. A lot of people who wanted to see the film simply never had it showing anywhere close to them, or it showed for only a few weeks and then vanished.

Florida project is really well made and its very nice that it doesn’t try to soften up the characters or life while never descending into the patronizing portrayal of poverty typical of film. And it has really wonderful natural performances from the kids.

But I think part of the problem is for awards audiences, the atypical nature of the films storytelling (there’s no dramatic rises and falls to the narrative, it’s just a dramatically flat “life as lived “ approach), makes the film struggle to gain traction with the guilds and the Oscars.

Most voters will watch it on a screener, and the film this mellow isn’t going to shine in that sort of high distraction environment.

Oedipax wrote:I was convinced it could be this year's Moonlight - a socially conscious film with heart (giving it broader appeal), yet made in a distinctly un-Hollywood art film fashion.

This is basically the problem for me, though, and it's one I had a problem with for Moonlight, also, although to a lesser extent - it's made in such a self-regarding "art-film fashion" that it feels inherently patronizing to me. It's a movie about poverty but made with what is essentially exclusive appeal to affluent, "sophisticated" audiences - there's no "broader appeal" there. It's not a movie made for its characters, it's poverty tourism made to make its target demographic feel good about itself for bothering to watch it in the first place. And it looks like it worked, too, if mfunk's "people just can't handle its truth!" stance is any indication.

I will agree with movielocke that the kids' performances were very good, however.

I can't speak with this film and I have severe problems with Moonlight's aesthetic, but wouldn't that film's popularity with the groups it represents undermine your whole point?

Well, I said "to a lesser extent", because I'm confining that particular criticism of the film only to its depiction of poverty, and Moonlight of course had other concerns on its mind.

The director's branch of the Oscars has historically overvalued directors who helm projects focused on child perfs, so I wouldn't be as shocked as some if Baker squeaked in

That brings up another movie that I think is a real Oscar sleeper, though, and that's Wonder. It's a big hit, and a lot of people really, really love it (though I kinda hated it, natch), and its subject matter is nothing if not Oscar-friendly.

Brian C wrote:That brings up another movie that I think is a real Oscar sleeper, though, and that's Wonder. It's a big hit, and a lot of people really, really love it (though I kinda hated it, natch), and its subject matter is nothing if not Oscar-friendly.

Yes, I understand it's like a version of Mask where Rocky Dennis is younger and cuter.

Or Jack where Robin Williams is younger and cuter.

The Golden Globes and the award season in general completely past me by when on holiday in Ukraine for two weeks. Seems the Guardian and the BBC had less coverage than usual.

The Oscars will be interesting purely for the moment Casey Affleck gives out the Best Actress award.

Oscar nominations are on Tuesday (not Thursday like usual), so time for pointless speculation! Mine:

BEST PIC

Call Me By Your Name
Dunkirk
Get Out
I, Tonya
Ladybird
the Post
the Shape of Water
Three Billboards…


BEST DIRECTOR

Guillermo del Toro
Greta Gerwig
Martin McDonagh
Christopher Nolan
Jordan Peele


BEST ACTRESS

Jessica Chastain
Sally Hawkins
Frances McDormand
Margot Robbie
Saoirse Ronan


BEST ACTOR

Timothee Chalamet
Daniel Day-Lewis
Daniel Kaluuya
Gary Oldman
Denzel Washington


BEST SUP ACTRESS

Hong Chau
Allison Janney
Leslie Manville
Laurie Metcalf
Octavia Spencer


BEST SUP ACTOR

Willem Dafoe
Woody Harrelson
Richard Jenkins
Sam Rockwell
Michael Stuhlbarg


BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Call Me By Your Name
the Disaster Artist
Logan
Molly’s Game
Wonder


BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Get Out
I, Tonya
Ladybird
the Shape of Water
Three Billboards…

I understand you’re big on the “the Post is slipping” narrative but the five for Best Actress has just felt so locked down for so long that I can’t fathom it slipping for a movie that’s not really made any splash this late in the season. It would literally be the first time ever that Meryl Streep was passed over for a nod.

Anyway:

PICTURE
Dunkirk
The Florida Project
Get Out
Lady Bird
The Post
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
(I, Tonya if 8)

DIRECTOR
Christopher Nolan
Guillermo Del Toro
Greta Gerwig
Jordan Peele
Steven Spielberg

ACTOR
Timothee Chalamet
Daniel Day-Lewis
James Franco
Gary Oldman
Denzel Washington

ACTRESS
Sally Hawkins
Frances McDormand
Margot Robbie
Saiorse Ronan
Meryl Streep

SUPPORTING ACTOR
Willem Dafoe
Armie Hammer
Woody Harrelson
Christopher Plummer
Sam Rockwell

SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Hong Chau
Holly Hunter
Allison Janney
Laurie Metcalf
Octavia Spencer

It's Timothée you monsters

This is a very weird, wide open year:

BEST PICTURE
Call Me By Your Name
Dunkirk
The Florida Project
Get Out
Lady Bird
The Post
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

BEST DIRECTOR
Guillermo del Toro
Greta Gerwig
Luca Guadagnino
Martin McDonagh
Christopher Nolan

BEST ACTRESS
Sally Hawkins
Frances McDormand
Margot Robbie
Saoirse Ronan
Meryl Streep

BEST ACTOR
Timmy Chalamet
Daniel Day-Lewis
James Franco
Daniel Kaluuya
Gary Oldman

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Mary J. Blige
Holly Hunter
Allison Janney
Laurie Metcalf
Octavia Spencer

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Willem Dafoe
Armor Hammer
Richard Jenkins
Christopher Plummer
Sam Rockwell

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Call Me By Your Name
The Disaster Artist
Logan
Molly’s Game
Mudbound

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
The Big Sick
Get Out
Lady Bird
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

swo17 wrote:It's Timothée you monsters

More importantly, Lady Bird is two words

DarkImbecile wrote:This is a very weird, wide open year:

And yet, everyone is predicting all the same stuff.

Brian C wrote:

DarkImbecile wrote:This is a very weird, wide open year:

And yet, everyone is predicting all the same stuff.

There are almost no clear front-runners in any category (save maybe Best Actor, though the indifference to Darkest Hour might sink Oldman there), and fewer seemingly certain nominees than usual. In almost every category, there are only a handful of possible nominees for which it would be shocking if they were passed over.

I confess at this point I think the only thing I'm really certain I'll enjoy is Jimmy Kimmel as the host.

knives wrote:I can't speak with this film and I have severe problems with Moonlight's aesthetic, but wouldn't that film's popularity with the groups it represents undermine your whole point?

Is the film popular with the groups it represents? (honest question, since it never got to bacome a really popular movie here in my country) Is it popular a popular movie among impoverished people? Is it popular with people with drug abuse in their families? Or children from divorce? There are just so many issues portrayed in the movie that I wondered if any group would actually identify with it.

I was mostly think homosexual men of colour with my statement.

knives wrote:I was mostly think homosexual men of colour with my statement.

Oh, so homosexual men of colour have embraced the movie in the US, is that what you mean?

This is the first year I can recall nobody has a f---ing clue what film will be chosen as the Best Picture.

SAG:

Rockwell
Janney
Oldman
McDormand
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri