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I think the biggest disappointment is Darkest Hour's Best Picture nomination over The Florida Project (or the much longer shot of Blade Runner 2049). This is the real plague of awards season in the last two decades or so (not tokenism or populism): the elevation of mediocre British historical dramas to undeserved nominations because, I guess, British accents sound award-worthy.

I think the ridiculous Oscars So White stuff has aroused suspicions that films will now be nominated because they seem appropriately diverse and will satisfy a particular quota. Get Out is a very, very fine film and deserves its nominations on merit - but this kind of suspicion is what you get when you start trying to shoehorn racial politics into things like this.

I'll be pulling for Dunkirk or Call Me By Your Name this year but I wouldn't be disappointed if Get Out takes it home.

Actually, also really bummed that Foxtrot didn't get a Best Foreign Film nomination, only because I wanted to see it in theaters and now it likely won't play near me.

mfunk9786 wrote:Let's run down some absolutely real things that aren't at all reflective of users' personal biases:

- Feminists are driving porn stars to suicide because they're too emboldened
- Get Out got nominated because it's "diverse" (notice the quotes! very important)
- Blade Runner 2049 wasn't nominated because of Wonder Woman

Am I missing anything?

No, Get Out got four major Oscar nominations because we're maybe 2-3 years removed from the internet complaining that AMPAS ignores films not made by white people. Before that campaign, the film would have only gotten what it deserved, an Adapted Screenplay nomination, which in and of itself, would have been a huge deal. I have to admit, I like its Best Picture nomination, since there are nine nominees (I really miss when it was five, though, honestly), but there's no way Peele was one of the five best directors this year, and neither was Kaluuya one of the five best actors.

Not sure how porn stars got in here, either.

Lars Von Truffaut wrote:Right, like Chicago, LotR: The Return of the King, The Departed, The Artist, Birdman...

I was thinking of Crash onwards and estimating, and as I said, there have been exceptions, which your last one certainly is not.

mfunk9786 wrote:Let's run down some absolutely real things that aren't at all reflective of users' personal biases:

- Feminists are driving porn stars to suicide because they're too emboldened
- Get Out got nominated because it's "diverse" (notice the quotes! very important)
- Blade Runner 2049 wasn't nominated because of Wonder Woman

Am I missing anything?

If Ava Duvernay or Oprah Winfrey get nominated for a weirdo sci-fi picture with a March release based on a cult children's book, I will eat a shoe (pastry).

Otherwise, I think Get Out and Lady Bird's chances of winning best picture are somewhat diminished with the director noms. Their noms are earned, but ironically they keep the films from taking advantage of the environment to launch an Argo-style campaign.

If not Peele or Gerwig, who are we assuming is the favorite? Nolan? I loved Shape of Water but I'm surprised it did this well and can't imagine it'll win much.

It's widely assumed that Del Toro is the front-runner for director, and the performance of the film here seems indicates it has widespread support so...

Shrew wrote:If Ava Duvernay or Oprah Winfrey get nominated for a weirdo sci-fi picture with a March release based on a cult children's book, I will eat a shoe (pastry).

I hope you're hungry, because I don't like the odds. I suppose if Black Panther explodes, or if there's some other black-led film that is more traditionally Oscar, it could be in trouble. And perhaps if there are strong Hispanic or (god forbid) Asian films next year, such a potentially successful film might be deliberately overlooked, but right now, it's the perfect solution to the diversity issue, so it will definitely be remembered and shortlisted.

I suspect it will be this year's Dreamgirls. Loved enough to be heavily nominated, but not to win much of anything. I'd still probably have Dunkirk or Three Billboards in third.

McCrutchy wrote:
Not sure how porn stars got in here, either.

Lars Von Truffaut wrote:Right, like Chicago, LotR: The Return of the King, The Departed, The Artist, Birdman...

I was thinking of Crash onwards and estimating, and as I said, there have been exceptions, which your last one certainly is not.

And, also, man, how are, like, Orcs and and Elves and Dwarfs and shit not just further evidence of the Academy cowering to identity politics?

McCrutchy wrote:

Shrew wrote:If Ava Duvernay or Oprah Winfrey get nominated for a weirdo sci-fi picture with a March release based on a cult children's book, I will eat a shoe (pastry).

I hope you're hungry, because I don't like the odds. I suppose if Black Panther explodes, or if there's some other black-led film that is more traditionally Oscar, it could be in trouble. And perhaps if there are strong Hispanic or (god forbid) Asian films next year, such a potentially successful film might be deliberately overlooked, but right now, it's the perfect solution to the diversity issue, so it will definitely be remembered and shortlisted.

This is getting really tiresome. We get it, dude - you don't want to see diversity in popular culture. This isn't something you should be trumpeting [here or... in most other places].

wattsup32 wrote:

McCrutchy wrote:
Not sure how porn stars got in here, either.

Lars Von Truffaut wrote:Right, like Chicago, LotR: The Return of the King, The Departed, The Artist, Birdman...

I was thinking of Crash onwards and estimating, and as I said, there have been exceptions, which your last one certainly is not.

And, also, man, how are, like, Orcs and and Elves and Dwarfs and shit not just further evidence of the Academy cowering to identity politics?

Bright was the clarion call for Orcish issues, and the Academy completely overlooked it, highlighting the boundaries of their identity politics. They're totally creaturist.

Shrew wrote:If Ava Duvernay or Oprah Winfrey get nominated for a weirdo sci-fi picture with a March release based on a cult children's book, I will eat a shoe (pastry).

I said the same thing this time last year about a cheapie horror movie directed by the guy from Key and Peele, and now I’ve got Les Blank doing a goddamned Jacob Marley on me every goddamned night.

I have to imagine it at least gets technical nominations, no?

wattsup32 wrote:

McCrutchy wrote:And, also, man, how are, like, Orcs and and Elves and Dwarfs and shit not just further evidence of the Academy cowering to identity politics?

To be fair, that wasn't the best nomination and win, since it was really for the entire trilogy, though you could argue that such a colossal success through three films would, at the time, have have been impossible to ignore. However, that was one of the last times an extremely popular and successful Hollywood film won major Oscars outside of the technical categories and obviously, Heath Ledger in The Dark Knight.

And until Get Out wins.

I don't doubt that Get Out got in here on its own merits, but I have to admit if I was tabulating nominations in this day and age and they naturally came out all white (which statistically is actually pretty likely to happen most of the time), I'd be tempted to fudge the numbers to avoid a backlash.

It seems like a kind of outdated discussion at this point to view any of this so cynically - all of these nominations are earned ones, and to continue to sneer at them or doubt their ultimate validity (meaning, nominations for black actors, black crew members, "black films") year over year is pretty regressive stuff in 2018. I realize you said you don't doubt it, Swo, but this whole line of discussion is really unfortunate and it seems to happen here every year.

Just imagine how regressive it will feel 50 years from now.

If we assume box office as a way of measuring popularity (which seems reasonable) a Get Out win would literally the most popular film in the category since LotR. As much as being zeitgeisty this unquestionably got in by being too big to ignore.

I'm glad Get Out got nominated not just because its a great deal of fun and it handled its politics with a fair degree of wit, but also because horror films so often get overlooked during awards season, especially when they aren't star driven, big budget films like The Exorcist or Silence of the Lambs. I doubt it will win anything though.

I mean if Get Out got nommed because someone wanted to make sure a black director's movie got in... good? It's a good movie of a kind the Academy often ignores

Get Out was one of the best reviewed movies of the year. To imply its in there to make up quotas is bull.

Seriously. We wouldn't be having this conversation about any other nearly $200 mil grossing, popular, well reviewed movie. It isn't like this is some obscure flop.

McCrutchy wrote: I have to admit, I like its Best Picture nomination, since there are nine nominees (I really miss when it was five, though, honestly)...

I never understand this complaint. How is it a bad thing that more good movies are highlighted and celebrated so that they will be more widely seen (and available to be seen)? If Call Me By Your Name, Lady Bird, and Phantom Thread weren't in this category (and I'd assume these would be most likely to have been excluded), literally millions fewer people would see them and/or have them play in a local theater. They're then far more likely to be financially successful and make it easier for their filmmakers to secure financing and distribution for their next efforts. How is this a losing scenario?

And Get Out's inclusion, if nothing else, brings us closer to a point when pure genre films of excellent quality are routinely considered among the more standard Best Picture entrants; definitely not a bad thing, however uncharitable you might want to be about the reasons for its inclusion.