Since you all simply cannot stop talking about this, here is a dedicated thread for all manner of speculation on the 1000th spine. Starting now, any post made speculating about any facet of the 1000th spine, be it release date or actual content, made outside of this thread will be deleted. "Enjoy"!
We're up to spine 983, that means 984-999 comprise sixteen spines. July-October is four months, at four new releases per month, that would put spine 1000 being announced for November. Three new releases a month for July-October and four new releases in November puts spine 1000 in November. Any mixture of 3-4 new releases per month from July-November puts spine 1000 in November.
I know people hate math and will really hate this, but being neutral about stats myself:
in recent years, 46% of the time, criterion releases four new releases a month, so even with absolutely nothing special happening, odds are good that criterion will wind up releasing spine 1000 in November, or possibly October.
24% of the time, criterion releases five new releases a month, but we've already had 3 months in 2019 with five new releases, more or less already meeting the expected number of times we'd see five new releases, but obviously, another five new release month could be easily offset by a month with three new releases, which we haven't had any of yet in 2019, but which happen 20% of the time.
(statistical outliers with 2 new releases (6% of the time) and 6 new releases (4% of the time) would be unlikely to happen, I would think.)
TL;DR, criterions recent release patterns all point toward November--also traditionally the month with a big criterion release of the year--being the month we are most likely to get spine 1000, without any deviation on their part from their normal release patterns.
Note that all of the above is counting "new releases" not spine numbers. Box sets are obviously wild cards and add a lot of spine numbers and as such would throw all of this off.
But, if criterion is trying to time spine 1000 for a November release, they may not have any box sets scheduled for the next four months (because a box set consumes 4 spine numbers, usually), and may just schedule the next box set for November as well, spine number 1002-1005, for example.
On average, over the last few years, criterion releases two new release box sets per year, and also on average, one upgraded box set every two years. This year is already weird about box sets as we have two upgraded box sets but have no new release box sets. Averages absolutely don't matter though, because that average smooths out the 2017 outlier (4 new release box sets and 2 upgrade box sets), so like all the rest of this nonsense post, it really indicates nothing.
Criterion could just skip spine 1000 and announce it later--but skipping spine numbers criterion has not done in a very long time.
Or criterion could announce spine 1000 early. in 2018, they announced Ingmar Bergman's Cinema before announcing the normal November monthly releases. and in 2017 they announced The Olympics Set before announcing the normal November or December releases, so this seems like a very likely outcome. they don't have to shuffle box sets out of the schedule, and just announce spine 1000 for a November release before they get to the month that they will cross into the 1000s in.
Last edited by movielocke on Wed Mar 20, 2019 7:30 pm, edited 2 times in total.
I will be serious at the expense of getting demerits from Domino. But I think Citizen Kane will be spine 1000. I will even guess and say late October, early November release. Depending on how the numbering works out the rest of the way.
Just here to join the Citizen Kane camp. Also to speculate that November is the most likely month of release.
1000=Citizen Kane in a 3-4 disc set featuring all previous Ultimate Collector's Edition supplements + The Eyes of Orson Welles & New Interviews with Criterion regulars/favorites.
1001=The Other Side of the Wind featuring A Final Cut for Orson & They'll Love Me When I'm Dead + Extended Interviews from those featuring (at least) Danny Huston and Peter Bogdanovich. Maybe even a commentary by Bogdanovich, as well.
bjboyer wrote: Wed Mar 20, 2019 9:36 pm
1000=Citizen Kane in a 3-4 disc set featuring all previous Ultimate Collector's Edition supplements + The Eyes of Orson Welles & New Interviews with Criterion regulars/favorites.
I'm pretty sure that 'The Eyes of Orson Welles' is getting a stand-alone release.
